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Charting the course of XRP


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2 hours ago, Ripley said:

Trading correlations, as you said, is a perfectly good way to make money. And there are several approaches to that. Hell, you could just trade Coinbase without all of these complications. Coinbase’s market cap is correlated to crypto market cap. And it even has a non-directional cash flow component to it because of all the fees and multiple sources of revenue!

Taking the long view and ignoring market gyrations is also a good way to trade/invest. It can be much harder to do, because you’re weighing several factors, identifying undervalued assets and you need a lot of patience. Sometimes years. But over time, they usually pay off far better. And during that time, you’re free to pursue other interests. 

I cannot speak for @NMNRbut I am guessing he has similar views.

You do care about the market gyrations in your approach and I’m sure you have made plenty of money with those opportunities. That takes skill. 

Some people make money during those 95% opportunities. Others do it during those 5%, having spent the rest of the time on something else.

Pretty much. There are people like XRP Nuke that state the previous but unlikely have the balls to the turn the obvious into reality and make more money. Or he just might be content with what he has, who knows. 

 

As for me. I'm not interesting in making pocket change, I don't have the time for that. 

As of now, XRP is the best risk reward play. A lot of it is contingent on the end price Target I.e. would be 3USD or 5 or more? Who knows. I've got a set price target in mind as a speculative investor and I'm making my purchase decisions on those targets. 

This intermediary noise or XRP being 50c, 80c, 1.20c etc I couldn't care too much as it'll be gains in the end of the price target I expect in the coming month and future months. 

 

Most people chatting shit in this thread have sold out or XRP, either lost faith or just significantly down on their portfolio lol. Tough shame.

 

Just to add, I've added to my XRP bag at so many levels largely because I assess the price at the time I'm making the purchase given what the market is doing. 

Some bags I'm up some bags are down. But overall I expect to be depths of space lol. In all seriousness, I just add and add. If it works out, it works, if it doesn't then my overall portfolio is still making me money.

 

The worst decision I've seen is just sitting on the sideline and doing nothing. 

Edited by NMNR
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4 hours ago, NMNR said:

The problem you have is you solely believe XRP and BTC are inseparable

Oh no, you are incorrect, there are moments when XRP seperates, its either 1 - 2 day action in case of uptrend, or momentum e.g. xRapid goes prod or positive case outcome.

In most other cases, unfortunatelly it very well seperates on going down and breaking all the limits 🤣👍

3 hours ago, Ripley said:

I cannot speak for @NMNRbut I am guessing he has similar views.

You do care about the market gyrations in your approach and I’m sure you have made plenty of money with those opportunities. That takes skill. 

Some people make money during those 95% opportunities. Others do it during those 5%, having spent the rest of the time on something else.

He talks about days not the years, something should happen in late Feb and starting March.

If you expect only the upward trend, than in case of XRP, 5% is never was more rewarding than 95%. Settelment is going to be a momentum, question will be: how massively it is going to be used to pump the price.

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1 hour ago, NMNR said:

Pretty much. There are people like XRP Nuke that state the previous but unlikely have the balls to the turn the obvious into reality and make more money. Or he just might be content with what he has, who knows. 

Well, I said to you that CPI and other yada yada from FED os going to drive price to 3x, you called me amateur 4chan pleb.

Alright.

I used my observation to keep fiat rather thab jump into XRP. And I got opportunity to buy lower 0.6x and higher 0.5x for so called relief rally.

Also I know that XRP will follow BTC.

2 + 2 = money for me

On your end, you just stupidly buy the dip, pretend to be an banking expert

But

Never

Take

An

Opportunity

Now!

🤣👍

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37 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Well, I said to you that CPI and other yada yada from FED os going to drive price to 3x, you called me amateur 4chan pleb.

Alright.

I used my observation to keep fiat rather thab jump into XRP. And I got opportunity to buy lower 0.6x and higher 0.5x for so called relief rally.

Also I know that XRP will follow BTC.

2 + 2 = money for me

On your end, you just stupidly buy the dip, pretend to be an banking expert

But

Never

Take

An

Opportunity

Now!

🤣👍

Who said I don't take opportunities now? I've done so on a few alts. Take profit and reinvest into XRP.

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Everyone's country/tax situation is different. Here's mine. Where I am, I'm liable for about 42% tax for short term gains. Also, I would like XRP in my portfolio for a long time, so I am placing a directional bet.

  • Let's say I had 10000 XRP bought at 0.2 USD, Cost Basis is 2000
  • Now, say I timed the market and sold at 1.4 USD. Profits = (1.4 - 0.2) *10000 = 12400 USD. 
  • Post taxes profit = 0.58 * 12400 = 7192 USD. So to get back my original stash of 10000 XRP, it would have to be lower than 0.72 USD. 

To summarize, I had to have bought the XRP at near bottom of 0.2, sold at near top of 1.4 and see price to drop  > 50% to make any profit and still keep my original XRP stash. If there is no 50% draw down, I would be in an overall loss.

So for me, based on where I am, selling and buying back only makes sense when there is expectation of greater than a 50% draw down - whatever is the level of profit at which I sell.

If I had sold at $1 instead, then to get back my original stash, I have to buy back at < 0.50 to breakeven. 

Again, if I didn't care about XRP at all, of course 7x is a great price to sell. Hell, 2x is a great price to sell.  But if I’m waiting on a specific event to happen, it’s not black and white. 

Now, a better trade to make here would be shorting XRP when it is overbought, with assets that I already have. But that takes me into active trading territory. It's a good choice, of course, but it's not for me.

There are other options like trading in and out. It's part of a sound investment/trading strategy, but the 50% draw down is always a key factor to keep in mind.

Anyway, my point is that buying high and selling low comes with its own costs. Some may have tax structures that allow them to place these bets without tax implications. Others may not. Some may be holding their portfolio in an LLC of sorts that lets them offset losses against gains. Others may not. Some may be in countries with a favourable tax treatment, and others may not. Some may choose to simply hide their crypto gains, but others may not. No such thing as “my way is better than yours”. There’s only “my way is better for me, than your way would be for me”

Edited by Ripley
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2 hours ago, Ripley said:

Everyone's country/tax situation is different. Here's mine. Where I am, I'm liable for about 42% tax for short term gains. Also, I would like XRP in my portfolio for a long time, so I am placing a directional bet.

  • Let's say I had 10000 XRP bought at 0.2 USD, Cost Basis is 2000
  • Now, say I timed the market and sold at 1.4 USD. Profits = (1.4 - 0.2) *10000 = 12400 USD. 
  • Post taxes profit = 0.58 * 12400 = 7192 USD. So to get back my original stash of 10000 XRP, it would have to be lower than 0.72 USD. 

To summarize, I had to have bought the XRP at near bottom of 0.2, sold at near top of 1.4 and see price to drop  > 50% to make any profit and still keep my original XRP stash. If any of those conditions are not met, or I time it even slightly wrong, and I am in an overall loss. Irrational markets are irrational. There is no guarantee about any of this. I have to book profits at 7x the cost basis, hope to see a 50% drawdown at least to buy back, and I won't even be making any profit. Again, if I didn't care about XRP at all, of course 7x is a great price to sell. Hell, 2x is a great price to sell.

Now, a better trade to make here would be shorting XRP when it is overbought, with assets that I already have. But that takes me into active trading territory. It's a good choice, of course, but it's not for me.

Another option is to look at crypto as just a way to make money but to not have long term exposure. That would essentially mean staying in fiat or rotating in and out of crypto. It's a good way to de-risk. But it's just that. It's a way to de-risk or hedge. It's part of a sound investment/trading strategy, but it is not by itself a strategy to make money.

Anyway, my point is that buying high and selling low comes with its own costs. Some may have tax structures that allow them to place these bets without tax implications. Others may not. Some may be holding their portfolio in an LLC of sorts that lets them offset losses against gains. Others may not.

 Of course we should pay taxes, and of course the authorities have a right and will want to enforce the keeping of records and payment of taxes.  So far most of my trading has been on etoro and they produce an account of my trading and I think also calculate my taxes, which were zero until about 1 year ago because for the first four years my XRP was in constant loss making structure and I only bought and never sold.

Now I have begun to trade on Bitrue (and maybe some defi paltforms) on multiple wallets I will have to calculate my taxes from a jungle of information.  Quite frankly I will provide some calculations that will be broadly in line with what I invest and what I take out, it will be a fair calculation.  I cannot imagine ever being able to keep an account of every micro transaction, every airdrop which arrive daily and are mostly valueless, every movement between crypto on defi exchanges, every payment for daily products on amazon or other online shops.  It is not my character to work like that, it is in any way unpoliceable by the authorities   Every year, as digital tokenisation becomes more sophisticated, more ubiquitous, more built into trading software and structures the calculations will become more ludicrously complex and even more impossible for anyone (taxpayer or tax collector) to monitor or calculate accurately.

Governments and regulators are going to have to get their heads around how crypto tokens are valued and taxed.  Traditional accounting will not work for anyone; taxpayer or tax collector.   

Edited by Julian_Williams
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4 hours ago, Ripley said:

Everyone's country/tax situation is different. Here's mine. Where I am, I'm liable for about 42% tax for short term gains. Also, I would like XRP in my portfolio for a long time, so I am placing a directional bet.

  • Let's say I had 10000 XRP bought at 0.2 USD, Cost Basis is 2000
  • Now, say I timed the market and sold at 1.4 USD. Profits = (1.4 - 0.2) *10000 = 12400 USD. 
  • Post taxes profit = 0.58 * 12400 = 7192 USD. So to get back my original stash of 10000 XRP, it would have to be lower than 0.72 USD. 

To summarize, I had to have bought the XRP at near bottom of 0.2, sold at near top of 1.4 and see price to drop  > 50% to make any profit and still keep my original XRP stash. If there is no 50% draw down, I would be in an overall loss.

So for me, based on where I am, selling and buying back only makes sense when there is expectation of greater than a 50% draw down - whatever is the level of profit at which I sell.

If I had sold at $1 instead, then to get back my original stash, I have to buy back at < 0.50 to breakeven. 

Again, if I didn't care about XRP at all, of course 7x is a great price to sell. Hell, 2x is a great price to sell.  But if I’m waiting on a specific event to happen, it’s not black and white. 

Now, a better trade to make here would be shorting XRP when it is overbought, with assets that I already have. But that takes me into active trading territory. It's a good choice, of course, but it's not for me.

There are other options like trading in and out. It's part of a sound investment/trading strategy, but the 50% draw down is always a key factor to keep in mind.

Anyway, my point is that buying high and selling low comes with its own costs. Some may have tax structures that allow them to place these bets without tax implications. Others may not. Some may be holding their portfolio in an LLC of sorts that lets them offset losses against gains. Others may not. Some may be in countries with a favourable tax treatment, and others may not. Some may choose to simply hide their crypto gains, but others may not. No such thing as “my way is better than yours”. There’s only “my way is better for me, than your way would be for me”

Your logic is broken and very harmful, its based around "If I sold 10k XRP, than I must buyback 10k XRP + pay tax on gain". This is not how trading works and not how profits made.

Ofcourse, it is one of the best way scenarios you could get.

But

You could put 7192 @ 1 USD and sell it @ 2 USD, that is 4171 USD to your capital, equals 11363 in total

If you would be able to sell 20k @2 than your capital would be 11600, so more on 237.

But 

Point is, at 1 USD you bought less than 10k XRP and eventually end up at same stage if you would sell 10k @2 USD, more important you bought back at 28.58% decline, not 50% as you claim.

Key moment here is not own 10K XRP, key here is increase the capital.

I itentionaly provided this example, the one would see that there are many opportunities to even outperform 10k @ 2USD

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

... 

You should not advocate for illegal stuff. Evading tax is just wrong, and going willy-nilly will bite you in the bum. Penalties can be huge. If you end up making big money on crypto, the probability that HMRC will investigate you is rather high.

There are painless ways of calculating taxes accurately. Look into Accointing.com for instance. Connect your wallets/account to this and it will generate a clean report with all transactions. You can use that report yourself if you do a self-assessment or send it off to your accountant who will deal with the headache. That's what I do. 

Obviously you do you, but doing things accurately is not all that hard nowadays, even with thousands of small transactions, and it will allow you to sleep peacefully at night. 

PS: in traditional finance, "normal" transactions/investment vehicles are absurdly complex and are being audited. Complying with regulations costs banks hundreds of millions every year. I think it's a fallacy to believe that crypto will get a free "get out of jail card". The environment is lax today because crypto is so new, but that will eventually stop.

Edited by Troote
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10 minutes ago, Troote said:

You should not advocate for illegal stuff. Evading tax is just wrong, and going willy-nilly will bite you in the bum. Penalties can be huge. If you end up making big money on crypto, the probability that HMRC will investigate you is rather high.

There are painless ways of calculating taxes accurately. Look into Accointing.com for instance. Connect your wallets/account to this and it will generate a clean report with all transactions. You can use that report yourself if you do a self-assessment or send it off to your accountant who will deal with the headache. That's what I do. 

Obviously you do you, but doing things accurately is not all that hard nowadays, even with thousands of small transactions, and it will allow you to sleep peacefully at night. 

I have never cheated my taxes and do not advocate doing anything illegal.  I am thinking down the line it is going to become increasingly impossible to calculate crypto profits.  For now it is just about doable - but I just cannot fathom how anyone will keep track of profits in a world of tokenisation of everything in multi-tokens and micropayments all at once.

Should we take notice of this tweet from David Schwartz?

 

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4 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

I have never cheated my taxes and do not advocate doing anything illegal.  I am thinking down the line it is going to become increasingly impossible to calculate crypto profits.  For now it is just about doable - but I just cannot fathom how anyone will keep track of profits in a world of tokenisation of everything in multi-tokens and micropayments all at once.

Should we take notice of this tweet from David Schwartz?

 

I'm guessing this is just his quirky sense of humour, he's posted stuff before. Like 'today was a good day' and in the real world, it meant nothing. Hope I'm wrong

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48 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

You could put 7192 @ 1 USD and sell it @ 2 USD, that is 4171 USD to your capital, equals 11363 in total

If you would be able to sell 20k @2 than your capital would be 11600, so more on 237.

But 

Point is, at 1 USD you bought less than 10k XRP and eventually end up at same stage if you would sell 10k @2 USD, more important you bought back at 28.58% decline, not 50% as you claim.

But you are also assuming a directional move here. That you will eventually make a profit because it’ll go to $2. I get that you are trying to make a specific point and that this is hypothetical, but inherent to that is the risk you are discounting. Anytime I sell, I need it to draw down 50% at least to just break even. And if my personal goal were $2 and I simply sell 10k at $2, I’ll not only make 10x profits, I’ll probably be paying a lot less taxes (max 25%) because by then it would be long term gains, instead of 45% for every trade. 

Your philosophy does work to an extent in well regulated market. And it is absolutely the right thing to do to take profits. But in an irrational market with no signal and 100% manipulation, it only works until it doesn’t. 
 

48 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Key moment here is not own 10K XRP, key here is increase the capital.

And I think this is the big difference in how you and I approach crypto. I made it clear that I want to own XRP. I know that’s a mindset that’s different but I just don’t trade.

You must have seen my post on possible buy levels at 0.72, 0.61, 0.45 etc. So it’s not a matter of not understanding buying and selling opportunities. And I’ve made my share of profits and added to my stash over the years. I bought a sizeable amount of ETH at $7 and BTC at $623 :) But investment approach must change as new information comes to fore. And I now have a significant exposure to XRP. May be I was too early to exit BTC and ETH but time will tell. I’m happy with my decisions.

I have a busy day job that pays me quite well. I invest in assets that are undervalued, has excellent management and fundamentals. In fact XRP is a big outlier in my philosophy because it doesn’t have any inherent cash flows. But these are early days and I am patient. 

As another example of my investments - I’ve mentioned it before somewhere in here, but I also have a small exposure to TZEROP. I’m pretty sure no one here has invested in it. But TZEROP has one goal - same day securities settlement instead of T+2 (hence T “Zero”). Also excellent management and a good use case. And it pays dividends. 

When price is pure manipulation, thinking 50% discount is “cheap” is dangerous. No such thing as “cheap” in crypto. Not until there are sensible regulations. But that day will come.

Edited by Ripley
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42 minutes ago, Xrpdude said:

I'm guessing this is just his quirky sense of humour, he's posted stuff before. Like 'today was a good day' and in the real world, it meant nothing. Hope I'm wrong

I agree he is quirky, which is a trait I like.  He also responsible and I think he does give signals, but I agree no one should take his tweets as news.  

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1 hour ago, Ripley said:

But you are also assuming a directional move here. That you will eventually make a profit because it’ll go to $2. I get that you are trying to make a specific point and that this is hypothetical, but inherent to that is the risk you are discounting. Anytime I sell, I need it to draw down 50% at least to just break even. And if my personal goal were $2 and I simply sell 10k at $2, I’ll not only make 10x profits, I’ll probably be paying a lot less taxes (max 25%) because by then it would be long term gains, instead of 45% for every trade. 

Your philosophy does work to an extent in well regulated market. And it is absolutely the right thing to do to take profits. But in an irrational market with no signal and 100% manipulation, it only works until it doesn’t. 
 

And I think this is the big difference in how you and I approach crypto. I made it clear that I want to own XRP. I know that’s a mindset that’s different but I just don’t trade.

You must have seen my post on possible buy levels at 0.72, 0.61, 0.45 etc. So it’s not a matter of not understanding buying and selling opportunities. And I’ve made my share of profits and added to my stash over the years. I bought a sizeable amount of ETH at $7 and BTC at $623 :) But investment approach must change as new information comes to fore. And I now have a significant exposure to XRP. May be I was too early to exit BTC and ETH but time will tell. I’m happy with my decisions.

I have a busy day job that pays me quite well. I invest in assets that are undervalued, has excellent management and fundamentals. In fact XRP is a big outlier in my philosophy because it doesn’t have any inherent cash flows. But these are early days and I am patient. 

As another example of my investments - I’ve mentioned it before somewhere in here, but I also have a small exposure to TZEROP. I’m pretty sure no one here has invested in it. But TZEROP has one goal - same day securities settlement instead of T+2 (hence T “Zero”). Also excellent management and a good use case. And it pays dividends. 

When price is pure manipulation, thinking 50% discount is “cheap” is dangerous. No such thing as “cheap” in crypto. Not until there are sensible regulations. But that day will come.

I forgot to include one other significant issue. So far, crypto wasn’t subject to wash trading rules in the US. That changes this year. You won’t be able to book losses that easily. If you sell something for a loss, you’ll have to wait 2 months before buying it again. That’s a life time in a 365x24x7 100x leveraged manipulated market. 

And if wash sale rules don’t apply outside the US, then things are going to get *very* interesting for US speculators. 

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