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Charting the course of XRP


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13 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Satoshi did not lock 21M BTC to his wallet(s). Yes, as first adopter and creator he mined a lot for obvious reasons. The key word here is public as it is with BTC network, there was more people than just Satoshi, who were mining BTC with Pentium 4. So tokens were distributing to public, for tx validation and pay electricity bill or graphic card bill.

Oh it’s okay if Satoshi gifts himself practically free money. You said tokens were “distributed to public”. How ? Public paid money for those tokens. They were not distributed for free. Miners paid in electricity and public paid in fiat currency to get them from miners. No one got anything for free. Except for Satoshi and his friends during early days of crypto. 
 

16 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

You take this situation as granted, I say that there is still 50B XRP and ways to distribute it to support activities like full history nodes so that not only Ripple would benefit from selling native token of public ledger.

I don’t take anything for granted my friend. Ask for ConsenSys to make Infura free. Then I will support you in petitioning XRPL foundation to make API servers free. ConsenSys sold Ethereum to make billions of dollars too, yes ? Infura is exactly the same as XRPL’s API servers, correct ?

See https://infura.io/pricing for their pricing details. 

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3 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

If so then he was in agreement with @Ripley (who he is disputingj.

 

Their main source of revenue is almost certainly trading fees.  So nah, they are not helping out of a good heart and nah they are not attempting to help distribution. 

I applaud anyone who has more than just their mother tongue (I don’t) but his point was incorrect and hence my reply.  If it was a translation problem then I’m wondering what possible point he was making?

 

I guess key word that is misunderstood is "helping". No, its not good will, its more as a contract or understanding that CEX has its own headaches: Nice UI, KYC, connect LP and Ledger, hide it all behind one button click, cold storage support, numerous policies-legal and yada yada. All that done is to build customer base that have fiat and connect with token holder/issuer like Ripple (initially).

So, for Ripple, CEX is an interface that builds XRP: whales, dolphins, shrimps, guppies wtv.

Its not right imho to force them to run nodes.

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4 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Oh it’s okay if Satoshi gifts himself practically free money. You said tokens were “distributed to public”. How ? Public paid money for those tokens. They were not distributed for free. Miners paid in electricity and public paid in fiat currency to get them from miners. No one got anything for free. Except for Satoshi and his friends during early days of crypto. 

Jeez why you twist absolutely everything?

Satoshi MINED.

Since BTC network went live anyone could MINE.

Distribution through MINING.

As I said in my original post.

Its not like Satoshi was siting and giving away or someone else.

Up to some year you could mine with your Laptop.

The key word here is Mine.

You still can MINE and benefit if you have enough influx of fiat and cheap power access.

11 minutes ago, Ripley said:

don’t take anything for granted my friend. Ask for ConsenSys to make Infura free. Then I will support you in petitioning XRPL foundation to make API servers free. ConsenSys sold Ethereum to make billions of dollars too, yes ? Infura is exactly the same as XRPL’s API servers, correct ?

ETH has incentive for validators. Period.

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27 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Jeez why you twist absolutely everything?

Satoshi MINED.

Since BTC network went live anyone could MINE.

Again, I’m not sure you understand where I’m coming from. You’re saying anyone could have gotten their hands on BTC for almost nothing (their laptop). I’m saying it’s the same for XRP. % of pennies until 2015. Whether that is through electricity (Bitcoin) or directly through money (Ripple wallet, exchanges, whatever). Running a program instead of paying money doesn’t make it magically better. 
 

Repeat after me. Mining is a distribution mechanism. Whoever wins gets a token. They don’t create a token. How it gets distributed (rewards for staking, mining, airdrop) is irrelevant to whether a small set of people got inordinately rich by keeping it among themselves (with BTC, the cypherpunk mailing lists)
 

27 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

ETH has incentive for validators. Period.

We have enough validators on XRPL. Period. And with Negative UNL, it’s stronger. We are not talking about validators here. We are talking about API servers. Let’s stick to the topic.

Edit: 10.5M BTC were “mined” before 2012. Before most of the world even knew what Bitcoin was. For practically pennies. That is worth close to 600B today. A small set of people made off with 600B (as of today) by “mining” it before anyone knew and pumping BTC as the next best thing since sliced bread. The paper says it’s for P2P payments in the title but it doesn’t work. It’s not Satoshi’s fault but apparently mining rewards are not “incentive” enough to make Bitcoin work. So why did the public pay all that money for a technology that doesn’t do what it says it is supposed to do ? Philosophical reasons ? I know folks disagree with me and I understand their point of view. 

Edited by Ripley
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43 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Running a program instead of paying money doesn’t make it magically better. 

It does make it better, you utilise hardware you do not use. You do it simutenously with your routine work that you do anyway. Big difference afterall. 

47 minutes ago, Ripley said:

I’m saying it’s the same for XRP. % of pennies until 2015.

BTC was pennies too AND you could mine it for couple years. Now its not pennies and you still can mine it.

49 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Repeat after me. Mining is a distribution mechanism. Whoever wins gets a token. They don’t create a token. How it gets distributed (rewards for staking, mining, airdrop) is irrelevant to whether a small set of people got inordinately rich by keeping it among themselves (with BTC, the cypherpunk mailing lists)

You again mixing things in contrast to others, with BTC you had years to get it for pennies or mine it with Laptop. Also, everyone out there does some sort of incentive and benefit.

51 minutes ago, Ripley said:

We have enough validators on XRPL. Period. And with Negative UNL, it’s stronger. We are not talking about validators here. We are talking about API servers. Let’s stick to the topic.

We talk about incentive. Full nodes is just candidate. ETH is example, that you brought for unknown reason.

54 minutes ago, Ripley said:

10.5M BTC were “mined” before 2012. Before most of the world even knew what Bitcoin was.

And you had 3 years to decide, you believe or you do not believe. It was not hidden from anyone.

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1 hour ago, Ripley said:

I’m saying it’s the same for XRP. % of pennies until 2015. Whether that is through electricity (Bitcoin) or directly through money (Ripple wallet, exchanges, whatever)

Also you ignore fact of available supply at that time. 10.5M vs 1B (just to be fair in terms of available drops in each protocol) this is 100 time difference, so if you want to match to bitcon than its like the price started with 0.5 and went to 1 - 5$ same year from starting date. So, if you want to have control based on available supply, than the price is cents or dollars not pennies or sub pennies.

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1 hour ago, xrp-nuke said:

Your bearish attitude put us towarfs Feb, need to kill time somehow.

Is that for XRP, in your opinion, or the overall market ? BCBacker seems to think December but I don’t know if he’s referring to BTC.

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6 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Is that for XRP, in your opinion, or the overall market ? BCBacker seems to think December but I don’t know if he’s referring to BTC.

He's referring to my predictions where I expect the cycle pretty much over and we'll be entering bear conditions. XRP will follow the market because of the uncertain outcome with the SEC. However, on the run up to Feb I expect XRP to decouple extensively and reclaim no. 2 spot and just match onwards to replace BTC.

Short term

non xrp: sell

Xrp: neutral

Medium (3 months +)

Non xrp: neutral/sell

XRP: Overweight 

Edited by NMNR
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15 minutes ago, NMNR said:

He's referring to my predictions where I expect the cycle pretty much over and we'll be entering bear conditions. XRP will follow the market because of the uncertain outcome with the SEC. However, on the run up to Feb I expect XRP to decouple extensively and reclaim no. 2 spot and just match onwards to replace BTC.

Short term

non xrp: sell

Xrp: neutral

Medium (3 months +)

Non xrp: neutral/sell

XRP: Overweight 

I can't say about the timelines, but I fully agree with your assessment of the overall trajectory of XRP. I'm keen to see how the top 10 board looks like in 4 years from now, and come back to see some of our comments here :) 

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2 hours ago, Ripley said:

Is that for XRP, in your opinion, or the overall market ? BCBacker seems to think December but I don’t know if he’s referring to BTC.

From what I read, all eyes on ETH rather than BTC, BTC just need to keep level, ranging or pumping.

XRPBTC in meantime must pump.

I do only XRP trading now and my bullishness is failing each time. 😢

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On 5/9/2021 at 11:56 AM, Ripley said:

My view is that visibility in crypto is not a problem this time. With the last bull run, visibility came at the very tail end. The factors right now in my opinion -

  • Inflation hedge narrative. Inflation seems inevitable. Is it already here? Is it priced in?
  • If crypto does become as big as everyone thinks will be/already is in terms of a hedge against the dollar, be very clear that the central banks will absolutely assert authority. They can do this in many ways including tailor-made laws to exclude “problematic” tokens, regulation around fiat bridges, novel classification of assets, taxation, sanctions on US technologies being used for certain purposes, sanctions on foreign entities, etc.
  • Regulation. Gensler was very careful to only talk about Bitcoin as a non-security in the most recent interview. He was also clear that in his/SEC’s view 99% of tokens are securities. His views on Ethereum have been clear for a while though a lot of crypto folks pretend otherwise. I don’t expect Ripple case to give regulatory clarity for Crypto. I expect it to potentially clear Ripple from the allegations, but that’s it. Congress will have to pass the laws.
  • Geopolitical and Climate Change related ramifications on crypto. China+Russia+OPEC is trying to come out of US control of world economy and this is going to dominate the next few decades.
  • We’re in the equivalent of the dot com bubble with a high level of FOMO and hysteria. 99.9% of crypto will fail in the next 2 to 5 years. We won’t know now as to what will survive but in hindsight it will look logical. 

Everyone is expecting the “bull run” to end between Q4 2021 and Q1 2022. And so it probably won’t end the way you think. Don’t align your exit plan based on the bull run narrative alone. Be clear on what you want and have the discipline to get out. You can get in when the market corrects eventually. You need to be patient.

About seven months since this post. 

  • Inflation, as we anticipated, is no longer "transitory" per Powell. Took him long enough to accede. Raising interest rates will have a deflationary pressure on assets and keeping them low will have an inflationary effect. But raising interest rates will cause equity markets to dump and I don't see that happening until there is a strong political winner in the mid-terms (failing which, it won't happen until the next Presidential elections).
  • Regulators formally acknowledged our thoughts on specific regulations in the joint letter a couple of weeks ago. They want to go after fiat-based stablecoins first, because they are scared of the impact on the dollar, want to regulate stablecoin issuers as banks, etc. Ironically, developing economies with worse currencies than the USD (most of them) are even more scared because they're seeing their citizens get out of their native fiat and buying USDT (which isn't backed by anything)
  • Gensler continues to focus on regulation, including during the fireside chat today where he said further enforcement is coming. I think we might have Gensler as the Grinch this year. DOJ is also tightening reins quite a bit, and has already started enforcement activities.
  • Geopolitics continue to go down the path we laid out in the original post. We see the price of oil go up, inability to produce more oil (climate related policies) but hitting the reality of cold weather, U.S. releasing strategic oil reserves, etc.
  • Bubble in equity, real-estate and crypto continues. It'll fall down at some point, but it's hard to know when. It's not a bad idea to take out your equity investments along with your crypto at the forthcoming crypto ATH. If you have a mortgage, consider hedging against rising interest rates.

Let's see how the next 6, 7 months goes and we can revisit this. 

 

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