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Charting the course of XRP


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It’s times like this that people will look back and wish they bought more XRP at this price.

The flywheel has started to turn. 

Also, it’s soon time for about 90-95% of tokens to die a quick death. Be careful with your money folks. Please get out of leveraged trades. Potentially away from all but the well established exchanges too. 

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8 minutes ago, Ripley said:

It’s times like this that people will look back and wish they bought more XRP at this price.

The flywheel has started to turn. 

Also, it’s soon time for about 90-95% of tokens to die a quick death. Be careful with your money folks. Please get out of leveraged trades. Potentially away from all but the well established exchanges too. 


I appreciate and respect what you say there,  but I would bet that you are actually a number of years too early.

I really doubt the crypto world is going to settle down to a pared back number of tokens any time soon.  Still early days I think,  unfortunately.  :) 

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16 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:


I appreciate and respect what you say there,  but I would bet that you are actually a number of years too early.

I really doubt the crypto world is going to settle down to a pared back number of tokens any time soon.  Still early days I think,  unfortunately.  :) 

We are quite early in the crypto journey, use cases, and possibilities. I agree. However, a vast majority of tokens aren’t really necessary or don’t being much to the table. Those are the 90-95% I’m referring to. The current set.

An idea sounding great on paper isn’t very important. People need to use it. Like use it, use it. Not just speculate on it or rotate it among crypto derivatives in the name of “yield” (which usually but not always is distribution/inflation, masked as “yield”). Tokenisation, payments, true decentralised lending, DEXes, securities offerings, democratisation of access to global markets, trustless KYC/AML, CBDCs - there are plenty of use cases, and plenty of products promising that they can deliver. Most will fail or have already failed but don’t know yet.

That doesn’t mean that a small number of tokens will somehow serve all the use-cases. Instead, there will be a “refactor”. Think of the hundreds and thousands of dotcoms in the 1999-2000 bubble. A few survived, even fewer thrived, and the rest died a swift death. A brand new world was then made possible on the shoulders of those who thrived.

The current “cycle” of crypto is about 5 years old (with the advent of Ethereum and the relative mainstream exposure) to 10 years old (Bitcoin/XRP). Hype is at its peak. Powered by fake leverage and companies like FTX, Ethereum, Cardano, Binance explicitly trying to skirt regulations. Who can blame them ? I have nothing against Cardano or Ethereum the technologies but it’s a joke that there are videos of them claiming to take steps to avoid US regulation with loopholes and they still get to operate in the US while companies like Coinbase, BlockFi, Celsius, Ripple get sued. 

There will be a valuation reset and the next cycle (say another 5-10 years) will begin in earnest. Regulation will play its part. 

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57 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

I agree @Ripley with every word.  I think we disagree on the timeframe.  
 

I think it’s going to take several more years for some things to become overnight successes.  :) 
 

Brad and Stefan said it is 2021... SEC listened...

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On 9/27/2021 at 2:48 AM, Ripley said:

We are quite early in the crypto journey, use cases, and possibilities. I agree. However, a vast majority of tokens aren’t really necessary or don’t being much to the table. Those are the 90-95% I’m referring to. The current set.

An idea sounding great on paper isn’t very important. People need to use it. Like use it, use it. Not just speculate on it or rotate it among crypto derivatives in the name of “yield” (which usually but not always is distribution/inflation, masked as “yield”). Tokenisation, payments, true decentralised lending, DEXes, securities offerings, democratisation of access to global markets, trustless KYC/AML, CBDCs - there are plenty of use cases, and plenty of products promising that they can deliver. Most will fail or have already failed but don’t know yet.

That doesn’t mean that a small number of tokens will somehow serve all the use-cases. Instead, there will be a “refactor”. Think of the hundreds and thousands of dotcoms in the 1999-2000 bubble. A few survived, even fewer thrived, and the rest died a swift death. A brand new world was then made possible on the shoulders of those who thrived.

The current “cycle” of crypto is about 5 years old (with the advent of Ethereum and the relative mainstream exposure) to 10 years old (Bitcoin/XRP). Hype is at its peak. Powered by fake leverage and companies like FTX, Ethereum, Cardano, Binance explicitly trying to skirt regulations. Who can blame them ? I have nothing against Cardano or Ethereum the technologies but it’s a joke that there are videos of them claiming to take steps to avoid US regulation with loopholes and they still get to operate in the US while companies like Coinbase, BlockFi, Celsius, Ripple get sued. 

There will be a valuation reset and the next cycle (say another 5-10 years) will begin in earnest. Regulation will play its part. 

I agree with @BillyOckham I think we are going to have such a big wave of newbies jumping into crypto over the next five years that they will be easy prey.  They will buy cryptos with cat logos, and be drawn into scam pumps and every other devious game played by people like Lubin who know the space.  The volume of new users will be so high that scam coins will go on multiplying for another 5 - 10 years before a shake out hits to cull the nonsense.

Lubin's ETH 1 is a scam - he told us so.  But even big investment companies are now buying it as if it were a new generation utility coin of the future.  The wave of investors will be at least an order of magnitude bigger than the dot com bubble.  The crypto investment bubble has hardly strarted yet.

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14 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

Lubin's ETH 1 is a scam - he told us so.

It's not a scam. Putting out a minimum viable product knowing you'll have to update it later is not a scam. Their knowledge that Ethereum 2 was inevitable doesn't invalidate the actual utility that Ethereum has provided for years.

Look, I don't have a vested interest in this. I could have bought the Ethereum IPO or anytime after but I didn't. I just keep a little ETH for fees (usually because I need to cross Ethereum to get to some network I want to be on). I didn't buy in because I thought it would be too slow and too expensive. Which is kind of right, but wrong in everything that matters.

Ethereum is the most successfully smart contract network by a long shot. It facilitated the blossoming of DeFi and NFTs. It has been a great investment for it's holders. It's not a scam. It's a trailblazer. We shouldn't let our crypto loyalties keep us from recognizing the truth.

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14 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

Ethereum is the most successfully smart contract network by a long shot. It facilitated the blossoming of DeFi and NFTs. It has been a great investment for it's holders. It's not a scam. It's a trailblazer. We shouldn't let our crypto loyalties keep us from recognizing the truth.

I agree with the point you are making about the tech, but the price is what it is due to scammy deals from scammy owners, not due to some pure free market valuation. 

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