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Charting the course of XRP


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Just now, Shmoe said:

Damn… aren’t  we all here for the same reason… to make $? This thread, to me, just proves, that humans will never agree on anything, and the internet sucks. 

Amen 🥺👍

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I so appreciate the differing opinions of everyone on their investment philosophy, but my stomach turns at the accusations from person to person because they disagree. I’ve seen a few “that’s a great point, but have you considered this?” Type conversations- and love them, but most turn into a “you’re a f’ing idiot and all of your thoughts are invalid- I’ll prove it by quoting past posts”. 

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The whole HODL thing is because short term trading in manipulated markets is just difficult to time. A lot more people get it wrong than right and generally the way the overall crypto market has behaved in such a way that by DCA-ing and selling during bull markets are profitable. The key is what point in the bull cycle and that's what everyone is really fighting over.

For large parts, this is a zero sum game.

There are instances where TA can be useful and not. I hate TA I think for most parts in crypto is just doesn't work but I understand that certain price points have a psychology impact and there are truths to support and resistances because of the HODL element amongst other things. 

The reason I continue to HODL is because I see naivety in others in that there are other coins with such high market cap based on doing nothing of real value. I do believe we will be at a time where the masses just realise and I'm waiting for that time to make serious money. That's what investing is you know. Risk and reward and inherently time!

I see tremendous value in what XRP is trying to achieve. Is it going to work? Who knows but that's what investing is all about and that's the key word "investing". For me, it is a matter of when not if for when XRP pretty much just takes off. These price fluctuations of say 50c, 1, 2, 3USD are just baby steps for now. In the overall scheme of things I don't see them mattering but I do break down a long investment horizon into shorter stints not to lose focus. 

Regulation isn't going to kill crypto. You can still be decentralised with Regulation. I don't know why people think it's one thing or another? 

Edited by NMNR
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Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. I have no relationship with the company that’s building out this network or its parent company at this time, and I don’t have plans to start one. I do have a small position on the token itself. I may exit my position at any time. I’m not compensated for this post in any way.

In a couple of posts over the past few weeks, I mentioned that I thought two other tokens will likely do well in the long term, but that I didn’t want to name them because I hadn’t had a chance to invest in them yet, and so there was no skin in the game.

I have been able to open a small position over the past few days in one of them and so I feel comfortable mentioning it.

The token is TZEROP (https://www.tzero.com/) It is a security and is registered with the SEC. It is the only network with approval to list other tokenised securities and it intends to provide liquidity and transparency to the private equity market. Democratisation of private equity, if you will. No more EquityZen or LinqTo. People can invest directly. 

It is still early days and the market is extremely illiquid. It is 90% owned by a single company (Overstock, OSTK) because well, it is a security. They are looking to raise funds and become their own company outside of OSTK.

Anyway, take from this post what you will. It is a high risk prospect, and my personal position is quite small. But I do think it will do very well. Especially as regulatory clarity kicks in. 

Edited by Ripley
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6 hours ago, Ripley said:

It’s just as misleading/fraudulent to do the same thing by saying TA always works in this manipulated gambling.

We are on the same page. I actually believe most TA (in particular pattern recognition, e.g. head and shoulders, Elliott Waves, flags, trend lines, diagonals...) are more akin to divination than anything else. People can believe in horoscopes and astrology if they want and even have happy examples showing some success, that won't stop me thinking and saying it's a pile of rubbish.

There are forms of technical analysis, which we don't see here or in most crypto circles, which are grounded in science - and again it acknowledges that price action is random and unpredictable (and subsequently uses probabilities and stochastic simulations). Hence why I think risk management eats technical analysis (as it is practiced in the crypto world) for breakfast, because it exposes people to the market/enables them to capture profits relatively safely whilst reducing the probability to lose money, regardless of whether the price goes up or down.

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What I do, I mainly aggregate information with grain of salt, whatever it is TA or on-chain, or some perma-bull dude, or Coindesk or wtv, than I look hoe what they say corresponds to chart move (this is the funniest parts, that identifies outliers and shows that 98% are here to sell you not what they claim), also I find hourly RSI mainly usefull, but even it can become unpredictable. So than I process and make decision of my next step.

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5 hours ago, Neurotoxin said:

Nope, and anybody who claims to know for certain is bs-ing you. 

Well, Micheal Saylor keeps on telling that we should buy more btc, so something big is going to happen in the nearby future.

 

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Btw, that dude is a billionaire, so i wonder why he always pulls a  serious face as if the world is going the end tomorrow, because he never laughs. Well i would laugh all day when i would have a net worth of 2,3 billion, and i sure would stop working and not even bother to make youtube videos about btc, because i would be far too busy with spending my money on the good life, because my only worry would be how to spend it all before i die, because i sure don't want to leave a penny for the government.

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7 minutes ago, retep said:

Btw, that dude is a billionaire, so i wonder why he always pulls a  serious face as if the world is going the end tomorrow, because he never laughs. Well i would laugh all day when i would have a net worth of 2,3 billion, and i sure would stop working and not even bother to make youtube videos about btc, because i would be far too busy with spending my money on the good life, because my only worry would be how to spend it all before i die, because i sure don't want to leave a penny for the government.

Please don't fall for Michael Saylor. They are essentially taking investor money (they are a public company) intended for a different purpose (running their core business) and investing that into a highly speculative and manipulated asset. I don't know what they are hiding and I don't care whether they become more rich. It stinks.

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6 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Please don't fall for Michael Saylor. They are essentially taking investor money (they are a public company) intended for a different purpose (running their core business) and investing that into a highly speculative and manipulated asset. I don't know what they are hiding and I don't care whether they become more rich. It stinks.

Agreed. It's too easy to see right through them. Degenerate gamblers.

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27 minutes ago, retep said:

Btw, that dude is a billionaire, so i wonder why he always pulls a  serious face as if the world is going the end tomorrow, because he never laughs. Well i would laugh all day when i would have a net worth of 2,3 billion, and i sure would stop working and not even bother to make youtube videos about btc, because i would be far too busy with spending my money on the good life, because my only worry would be how to spend it all before i die, because i sure don't want to leave a penny for the government.


maybe that’s how you become a billionaire… being a degenerate psychopath. Sounds good to me. 

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13 minutes ago, Benaoao20 said:


maybe that’s how you become a billionaire… being a degenerate psychopath. Sounds good to me. 

rant + knowledge sharing

The way to become a billionaire is to own/run/be an senior leader of  a company that's part of certain S&P/Russel/Dow indices. Then the magic of passive investments in the U.S. kicks in, where anyone who has a job gets a 401k with a default plan that automatically invests into theses indices. 

Most people don't bother looking at what their 401k plan is, the rest don't have too many options to switch and before you know it, up to 18k USD of your salary is going into the coffers of these companies, making the rich richer. The problem is with how these passive investment funds have been incentivized (by both Republican and Democratic governments, through Central Banks)

With this guaranteed investment into their company (they have to actually do the thing they are supposed to.. a failed company is quickly removed from indices), you never sell your assets but take loans on them. The loans are usually at 1% or lower interest rates if you have a super low LTV. Invest that into more assets, use the dividends from your equities to fund your regular expenses and pay back your loans, sit back and relax while politicians bicker over who's actually responsible for the rich becoming richer. You don't really need income at that point (why pay income taxes ?) so claim that you're a "holier than thou" nice guy by taking a $1 salary.

There are only two ways for to stop the super rich from becoming insanely rich -

  • Have a threshold after which loan interest rates jack up even if the LTV is super low. For example, if you take more than $50 millions in debt (total), your interest rate is 25% or higher whether your assets are worth $100M or $200B. That will force people to sell their long term assets (because that rate at 20% is cheaper than 25% for the loan). 
  • Force estate taxes after a certain threshold. I don't see how we are supposed to pay taxes for "found treasure" (lottery, crypto airdrops, restricted stock units etc.) but children of the rich don't, even though it is effectively found treasure for them too.

Increasing income taxes only serves to keep the middle and upper middle-class poor and stop them from ever becoming rich. The poor don't earn enough to contribute to income taxes. The rich don't have too many expenses and so get away with very little income, and so don't pay too many income taxes (they pay other taxes). That leaves the middle and upper middle. 

Unfortunately, I don't see the current state changing. Democrats need voters to be angry about billionaires and Republicans need voters to think they have a shot at being a billionaires. Both of them of course are wrong and this is the case with not just the U.S. but literally every country in the world and all of their political parties. It's the people that need to educate themselves.

 

/end rant

 

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