Charting the course of XRP

[Neurotoxin]

We will all know what’s what FOR SURE in a few months. In the meantime, I see no point in anybody being not nice against anybody else, regardless of which camp they’re in. Whether that’s in the camp that believes this is over, the camp that believes it isn’t, and the camp that is just unsure and waiting to see what unfolds. I’m just saying this not to be singling anyone out or anything, but in hope that we can keep these threads friendly and have it be a place where we can safely share our thoughts and not have it be mega stressful, the market is already stressful enough as it stands. 
 

This is a great community full of very smart people and also full of a variety of people from different businesses, social status, different countries, etc. Let’s keep it that way and be kind to one another  I’m taking a break from candles/price predictions and all that at the moment, and instead just focusing on the news on the case and things of that nature. I hope you can all find peace in times of such high stress, however that may be. (As long as it’s not by bashing other members here that have differing views )

[xrp-nuke]

31 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

That's because when I say I am bullish I am talking in terms of weeks and months. The weekly chart looks bullish. That's all I need.

To keep this threas polite:

Dear @Seoulite

Thank you for your time and patience I always appreciate your input and effort. The information you provided in your reply indeed was very helpful and provides clarity I was looking for. I would like to continue our conversation and only have a hope that you spare some of your limited attention to my requests.

I am thrilled to see weekly graph you were referencing too. I hope its free and I definetly anticipate to learn from your findings.

Sincerely yours

@xrp-nuke

[RandyMarsh]

18 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

To keep this threas polite:

Dear @Seoulite

Thank you for your time and patience I always appreciate your input and effort. The information you provided in your reply indeed was very helpful and provides clarity I was looking for. I would like to continue our conversation and only have a hope that you spare some of your limited attention to my requests.

I am thrilled to see weekly graph you were referencing too. I hope its free and I definetly anticipate to learn from your findings.

Sincerely yours

@xrp-nuke

I unhide a single post from you just to see if you are still a $hit-disturbing, site-bully. Yip. 

[xrp-nuke]

5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I unhide a single post from you just to see if you are still a $hit-disturbing, site-bully. Yip. 

Why this has to be usefull for me? 🤣🤣🤣

[Seoulite]

31 minutes ago, Wolfaolyth said:

Can you show us what you see on the weekly ?

The weekly is for me the most frightening : the only thing I see is a giant H&S

Sure. Some of what I say might not be clear but that's because it would require explaining all the TA things that I'm learning so bear with me.

Firstly, I agree with the general consensus that around 60-70 cents was a multi-year resistance level, and I think that level has been decisively broken. Second, as we would expect, I believe that level is now acting as a support. There are various other levels of historical support that are also helping out, but so far we have held at the first line of defence, which is encouraging. So far this signals a change in the whole direction of the chart.

Markets follow laws of nature and so it can be helpful to think in these terms. The short term charts (1hr, 15 mins) can zip around like a motorbike, tiny turning circle, changing direction whenever they want. The long term charts like the weekly are more like an oil tanker. They can't just spin on a dime. It takes a really long time and a lot of energy to turn the thing and once you've turned it it's not easy to just turn it back. When weekly resistance is broken, it is like the tanker turning. Confirmation of support just confirms to us that it has turned. That is why I said a long while back that every day we spend at this levels makes it more likely we have fully turned. If we just spiked up and spiked back down below 60 cents, it would be a different story. But we haven't. We are doing ok. 

Someone is gonna say "well what about the ATH? That was a quick reversal on the weekly chart." Yes it was, but the significant difference is that that was outside any previous range. Outside any previous range all bets are off, which is why I've been saying for months that buying BTC was too risky. It can turn at any time because you are in uncharted territory, no support and no resistance. Imagine if suddenly a massive waterfall appeared in the Suez canal.

At the moment we are within the range, and so things don't generally just jerk around. There are defined levels, defined channels in which we are now trading. It would take a black swan to send us to 10 cents this week. Black swans are always possible, but you can't base your analysis on them.

Which brings me to the last point. This is more speculative but I am fairly confident in it. We are trading within the range from the bottom to the top. In general, charts move from the top to the bottom and the bottom to the top. Eventually they break the range one way or the other. Since we are still near the bottom of the range, to me it is more likely that we are going up next. We are closer to the bottom than the top in terms of both price and time. Also since there is very little space below the range but a very large space above it, that makes me think it is more likely to go 5 dollars than 5 cents. Finally, all the other major coins have followed this same pattern. Look at the ADA chart, that is what I am expecting the XRP chart to look like. Why would it be similar? The market is small, the people manipulating it want to make money and they don't give a damn about maxis and FUD. Also we've seen accumulation for years. What do you think they are going to do with all that xrp? 

Another metaphor: massive moves in the market are like massive events in nature. They don't just come out of nowhere. They can't come out of nowhere. A massive volcanic eruption needs a build-up of magma and pressure beforehand. They can't hide it. When they buy it gets recorded on the chart along with everyone else. They are buying here. This is the build-up:

 

  

[Wolfaolyth]

32 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

Sure. Some of what I say might not be clear but that's because it would require explaining all the TA things that I'm learning so bear with me.

Firstly, I agree with the general consensus that around 60-70 cents was a multi-year resistance level, and I think that level has been decisively broken. Second, as we would expect, I believe that level is now acting as a support. There are various other levels of historical support that are also helping out, but so far we have held at the first line of defence, which is encouraging. So far this signals a change in the whole direction of the chart.

Markets follow laws of nature and so it can be helpful to think in these terms. The short term charts (1hr, 15 mins) can zip around like a motorbike, tiny turning circle, changing direction whenever they want. The long term charts like the weekly are more like an oil tanker. They can't just spin on a dime. It takes a really long time and a lot of energy to turn the thing and once you've turned it it's not easy to just turn it back. When weekly resistance is broken, it is like the tanker turning. Confirmation of support just confirms to us that it has turned. That is why I said a long while back that every day we spend at this levels makes it more likely we have fully turned. If we just spiked up and spiked back down below 60 cents, it would be a different story. But we haven't. We are doing ok. 

Someone is gonna say "well what about the ATH? That was a quick reversal on the weekly chart." Yes it was, but the significant difference is that that was outside any previous range. Outside any previous range all bets are off, which is why I've been saying for months that buying BTC was too risky. It can turn at any time because you are in uncharted territory, no support and no resistance. Imagine if suddenly a massive waterfall appeared in the Suez canal.

At the moment we are within the range, and so things don't generally just jerk around. There are defined levels, defined channels in which we are now trading. It would take a black swan to send us to 10 cents this week. Black swans are always possible, but you can't base your analysis on them.

Which brings me to the last point. This is more speculative but I am fairly confident in it. We are trading within the range from the bottom to the top. In general, charts move from the top to the bottom and the bottom to the top. Eventually they break the range one way or the other. Since we are still near the bottom of the range, to me it is more likely that we are going up next. We are closer to the bottom than the top in terms of both price and time. Also since there is very little space below the range but a very large space above it, that makes me think it is more likely to go 5 dollars than 5 cents. Finally, all the other major coins have followed this same pattern. Look at the ADA chart, that is what I am expecting the XRP chart to look like. Why would it be similar? The market is small, the people manipulating it want to make money and they don't give a damn about maxis and FUD. Also we've seen accumulation for years. What do you think they are going to do with all that xrp? 

Another metaphor: massive moves in the market are like massive events in nature. They don't just come out of nowhere. They can't come out of nowhere. A massive volcanic eruption needs a build-up of magma and pressure beforehand. They can't hide it. When they buy it gets recorded on the chart along with everyone else. They are buying here. This is the build-up:

 

  

Ok thx.

i agree with you the chart XPR/USD alone is bullish on weekly, and we are still in range but on the lower part.

My concern is that we are tied to BTC/USD, and BTC doesnt look great at all (when i was talking about giant HS its for BTC). 

If BTC decide to confirm the HS (so the last bounce = bull trap) it will dip very badly, and as xrp will most likely follow under the support (aka lower line of the current range). If It happens i have no idea where xrp will be (i have idea but drawing on xrp chart is just ridiculous ...so giving a prediction is a bit hard... 0.2-0.3..)

I just hope if BTC crash again, xrp will keep his current support but it s a bet against recent history.

[B088IN]

If people are following historic charts surely then we know that if history repeats, once BTC starts to drop off from its bull run the Alts start theirs. So why do people get so panicked and constantly tie XRP to BTC, if you follow historic trends. Surely as BTC drops the Alts will start to rise. Not saying it will happen but it seems most people base future predictions on historic predictions, personally I think this market is too new and no where near established to base it on that plus without any sort of regulation, it’s almost impossible. I get people are trying to make sense of it, but I have yet to see anything that makes sense. It’s a market controlled by the few and retail works solely on emotion. This in turn makes any sort of prediction impossible; guess work, that’s all it becomes, for now. 

Edited May 29, 2021 by B088IN

[Wolfaolyth]

35 minutes ago, B088IN said:

If people are following historic charts surely then we know that if history repeats, once BTC starts to drop off from its bull run the Alts start theirs. So why do people get so panicked and constantly tie XRP to BTC, if you follow historic trends. Surely as BTC drops the Alts will start to rise. Not saying it will happen but it seems most people base future predictions on historic predictions, personally I think this market is too new and no where near established to base it on that plus without any sort of regulation, it’s almost impossible. I get people are trying to make sense of it, but I have yet to see anything that makes sense. It’s a market controlled by the few and retail works solely on emotion. This in turn makes any sort of prediction impossible; guess work, that’s all it becomes, for now. 

You already had an "alt season", BTC dominance drop from 70% to 40%.

I don t think you will have an event as in 2017-2018 (BTC dominance : >95% --> 38%).

 

[xrp-nuke]

1 hour ago, B088IN said:

Surely as BTC drops the Alts will start to rise.

Absolutely not true, if you zoom in you will see that BTC at least has to hold the price at best grow from drop.

[B088IN]

14 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Absolutely not true, if you zoom in you will see that BTC at least has to hold the price at best grow from drop.

I guess it depends on how you read it, for example if you was to watch Blockchain Backer, he mentions historically as BTC drops Alts start to rise and shows this on charts and historically, so I guess an absolute isn’t guaranteed 👍

[xrp-nuke]

43 minutes ago, B088IN said:

I guess it depends on how you read it, for example if you was to watch Blockchain Backer, he mentions historically as BTC drops Alts start to rise and shows this on charts and historically, so I guess an absolute isn’t guaranteed 👍

Indeed I was referring to more late Dec 2017 and first 7 days to 2018, Sep 2018 and pump days of 2021. It still enough to doubt historical moment he refers too.

Examples:

 

 

[xrp-nuke]

33.9 is broken, 32 next and than 30, and than 🥺

[BarnBuilder]

24 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

33.9 is broken, 32 next and than 30, and than 🥺

The sellers are controlling the market now.  They own the price and they are profiting.  Until that changes, this has no bottom because they really dont care about the fundamentals of anything.   They are just selling for profit.  

Personally, I am out of the market with the exception of ADA.  If that pops up, I will sell it as well.  I think XRP has a huge technical edge in this space.  However, the fact that it doesn't trade independently of BTC, means the merits of the technology are not independent of its price.  Until the exchanges start making their markets with a different formula, this is what we are stuck with.

 

 

 

[BarnBuilder]

16 hours ago, Seoulite said:

That's because when I say I am bullish I am talking in terms of weeks and months. The weekly chart looks bullish. That's all I need.

Seoulite, 

I respect the fact that you are bullish.  I've held on to many things you've until the facts were otherwise.  The fact is that once the BTC weekly closes below the 21 EMA, BTC price has dropped precipitously for 6-8 weeks (50% of the time) or 13-18 weeks (49%).  One time it was 64 weeks before it regained that line.  Even I am more hopeful than this.  The losses from the 21 EMA are historically very significant.  Inability of BTC to hold a 21 week EMA is NOT good regardless of BTC's historical volatility.

The monthly chart was parabolic and overbought through March.  April flashed a significant price correction, and ended with a bearish Judas candle.  May speaks for itself and will establish a worse bearish candle pattern(evening star pattern). 

The fundamentals of XRP, ADA and any other coins may be bullish, but ignoring the fact they all trade with BTC is a huge mistake when the BTC weekly and monthly technicals said to get out of this market by 58K.  

Someone posted an Elliot Wave Analysis that showed XRP going from $2 back to .36 before proceeding to the ATH's we hope for.  I pondered that because its hard to understand how you go from .48 to 2 and back to .36.  Realistically, XRP's real long term support is in that range.  You can show it many ways.  Too me, BTC would have to fall back to 11-20K for this to happen or the SEC manage to inflict max damage.  It think its important to recognize this because when you calculate risk/reward of a long term position you should fairly evaluate the risk.  The realistic medium and long term downside risk is .26-.49.  I'm not saying it wont go to 10 tomorrow.  If you are going to get into XRP or stay in XRP keep this in mind as long as XRP is bearish.

I know this isnt hopium but these are the facts.  Show me bullish ones, and I'm all ears.  Your chart above is a fallacy because it isnt BTC.  The chances that it breaks away from the bearish BTC chart would take an alt coin season (hasnt started) or massively positive news on the SEC case (dont have).  ADA has massively bullish news and momentum and you can see how its performing.

I'll get my backpack and go take another hike now.

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by BarnBuilder
Added chart

[mrhat75]

What bothers me is that out of all coins in like the top 25. XRP is the only one that not only didn't go at least 2-3x ATH, but only made it halfway to ATH.

Even if you admit that tech doesn't matter and crypto is ran by a bunch of retarded monkies, it's extremely frustrating that we were the only coin to fail so hard.

I just can't get over it.