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Charting the course of XRP


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12th May we saw bitcoin fall -12.42%. That was the single largest fall so far this year. You survived it. Your coins survived it. Relax.

A bit more simple risk metrics.

Your 1 day VaR for a 99% confidence interval, assuming a 3 year horizon would be based around an -11.39% move. So anything worse than that would be considered a "tail" move.

We've seen 2 larger moves this year, January 21st and may 12th.

The worst move in the last 3 years is a -37% move on March 12th, 2020. Peak covid-19 where every market tanked.

Within the tail, most of the moves range between -11% to -13% with the March 12th, 2020 observation being an outlier.

If you want to trade smartly you should base your trading and investing patterns on the -37% move as that's historically the worst 1d move.

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8 hours ago, xrp-nuke said:

Lol, Green since 0.006 🤣🤣🤣 I guese you entered a stage where you rant on yourself for not selling and project that on me 🤣🤣🤣

 

Lol if you’re green since 0.006, how much did you invest? Three dollars? I would have cashed out by now, those are astronomical gains that would make anybody rich. Get outta here with your lies and your constant pessimism followed by the laughing emojis. It’s gettin’ oooold. 

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7 hours ago, xrp-nuke said:

Looks like reverse middle finger 🤣🤣🤣

 

Most do not understand, crypto is not about diamond hands to hodl, its about diamond ballz to press sell button, take profit and never look back.

Which you seem to have failed to do since you’re still hanging out in here showing your worry as 🤣🤣🤣 when, if you really bought in at around half a cent, then you have no business still being so active here. You would have cashed out in the 2017 bullrun and been a millionaire if you invested anything more than pocket change. Or are you one of those that won’t sell until it hits $589? Hmmm, that would contradict your post about having the balls to take profits. So which one is it? 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, kindaconcerned said:



image.thumb.png.f0e2a8d41f8a1851922c079135559829.png
 

Who's this "we"?  I'm somewhere around the "Bear Trap" dot - with a little "Media Attention" - if anywhere.

Always hated these kinds of gross over-simplification charts, but I suppose some people find them useful.

(Then again, I don't own the "broader market" - if did, be suspicious those guys may've seen that "chart.")

You might want to flip that thing over and see where it was printed and what it's supposed to represent. :)

 

 

Edited by NightJanitor
"That's the problem! The last guy who underlined 'em - he coulda been a maniac!"
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11 minutes ago, Neurotoxin said:

Lol if you’re green since 0.006, how much did you invest? Three dollars? I would have cashed out by now, those are astronomical gains that would make anybody rich. Get outta here with your lies and your constant pessimism followed by the laughing emojis. It’s gettin’ oooold. 

3000 were invested at 0.006, that time it was 560 sats only, sold in 0.36, 0.65, 1.23, 2.27 and 2.8. Bough back some in between 0.4 and 0.3, additionally bought some at 0.11 in March 2020, sadly that was only shitcoin I bought back than 🥺 Thanks for asking by the way, I know that asking questions is your weakest side boi!

What lies you want put on me? I was crystal clear with @Seoulite that 41k is not resistance or magic number, news are everywhere that people sell on spot, RSI is not completely overbought and etc. Learn see signs! 😁

3 minutes ago, Neurotoxin said:

Which you seem to have failed to do since you’re still hanging out in here showing your worry as 🤣🤣🤣 when, if you really bought in at around half a cent, then you have no business still being so active here. You would have cashed out in the 2017 bullrun and been a millionaire if you invested anything more than pocket change. Or are you one of those that won’t sell until it hits $589? Hmmm, that would contradict your post about having the balls to take profits. So which one is it? 

I sold 5% of XRP at 1.4 long time before today 🤣 This time I was playing with BTC sold st 45k, bought back at 32.5k if it hits 42k in couple hours will sell again, if not, than 40k works too. Wull buy back tomorrow at 38k. If above will not work out, I will have cash from 40k sellings.

So yeah: 🤣🤣🤣 on you unhappy diamond hands 🤣🤣🤣

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15 hours ago, Neurotoxin said:

I can see one final shakedown about to take place. Things might get ugly. 
I hope I’m wrong though and I can wake up tomorrow and smell the roses. Just don’t be surprised if shit gets ugly in the short term and everybody screams it’s the end. 

There you have it guys. We went through it. Congrats to anybody that didn’t sell. I didn’t even look at the price or this forum until some minutes ago. I see I have a LOT of catching up to do as far as reading is concerned on how you guys responded to this carnage. It’ll keep me entertained for several minutes at the very least :) 

 

I hope nobody here panic sold at the bottom. This was an amazing opportunity to “buy the dip” one last time if you are one of those who have tiny bags. The window has passed IMO and after this we should expect to see some really wild price action and a retest of the recent high of ~1.90 and subsequently blasting right through it. When? Idk honestly, nobody does. Could be weeks, could be months. It can all happen very fast and you need to be ready. 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

3000 were invested at 0.006, that time it was 560 sats only, sold in 0.36, 0.65, 1.23, 2.27 and 2.8. Bough back some in between 0.4 and 0.3, additionally bought some at 0.11 in March 2020, sadly that was only shitcoin I bought back than 🥺 Thanks for asking by the way, I know that asking questions is your weakest side boi!

What lies you want put on me? I was crystal clear with @Seoulite that 41k is not resistance or magic number, news are everywhere that people sell on spot, RSI is not completely overbought and etc. Learn see signs! 😁

I sold 5% of XRP at 1.4 long time before today 🤣 This time I was playing with BTC sold st 45k, bought back at 32.5k if it hits 42k in couple hours will sell again, if not, than 40k works too. Wull buy back tomorrow at 38k. If above will not work out, I will have cash from 40k sellings.

So yeah: 🤣🤣🤣 on you unhappy diamond hands 🤣🤣🤣

If this is true, then you made a ludicrous amount of money. Like, enough to retire and live a good life. I see you sold in increments on the way up, which is a great strategy. 
Even if you sold the whole stack at 0.36, that would be $180,000, minus the $3000 invested, that’s still $177k profit (minus taxes afterward of course, but still). But as you said, you sold in increments all the way to $2.80. Let’s say you only sold 10% of your initial investment at $2.80, that would still mean well over $100k additional to however much profit you had from the previous sales. All in all, you should have come out of this a rich man if it is in fact true. 
 

So, after all that’s been said, why are you always so pessimistic here? You’re most often extremely bearish and very quick to call it the end or more red to come anyway. You’re already well off from that first rodeo, and in this one you bought in at 11 cents, and I assume this time you didn’t throw in just 3 grand, cuz, you know, you got rich after buying in $3k worth at $0.006. Idk man, your story doesn’t seem to add up to me. That or you’re just that type of person that’s always very pessimistic about everything. 

Edited by Neurotoxin
What do you think guys? Am I way off/missing the mark here or does his story mixed with his constant worry and pessimism just not add up?
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10 hours ago, madmellow said:

As always I am waiting for really low prices to buy again but this time I just can not figure out what the new low is... 🧐

XRP wicked down to the high 80’s, I think that was an excellent opportunity to jump back in. 

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