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Charting the course of XRP


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I'm very interested in the BTC monthly chart.  6 significant green candles and now our first red candle.  I see this more of the monthly correction in the first elliot wave.   Monthly bars are long so if you're looking for a quick fix then I suspect you wont find it.  6 months of month-over-month gains accounting for 6.5x is pretty substantial and hard not to cause a race to the door to lock in profit.  I feel a correction to between 44500 to 38250 would be normal.  If this is truly a correction to this massive 1st wave, then I'm not good enough with TA to predict the final top, but I'm not dumb enough to think omg it will be big.

I can not resolve why 6 strong monthly green candles shifts on a dime to bearishness.  I dont see any real fundamental reason.  To me, I see a lot of reasons (profit taking panic, normal market structure) why this is just a correction along a very big move.

I dont own any BTC, but I've learned to follow BTC to understand XRP.  There are very few times where they aren't highly correlated.  Unfortunately, this is what is dragging XRP down.

 

image.png.27019a1971088fd4d3f23105601e834d.png

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I was participating undercover :).  The trolls became too overwhelming while XRP was in the dumps, I figure its safe to come out again.

There are actually several lawyers in the crypto space who have analysed the case extremely closely explaining how the case will likely play out. Given that these lawyers are either BTC or ETH maxis a

These threads are being derailed by childish banter, could you please keep things on topic and move your chit chat elsewhere. The forum is becoming less interesting for many of us.

8 hours ago, Raekwon said:

That is exactly what I did. I had to find this post again. You got me rolling, DOGE has been the best decision ever so far. I am literally going to make a poster out of your post 🐶 

That's awesome! I hope you locked in some big fat profits! One thing I learned in this space is that there is plenty of money to be made, often in the least expected times. There's no reason for us to fall in love with XRP and not venture into other assets.

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Curious to get your outlook @Seoulite , are you surprised to see BTC slouching closer to 45k? You still thinking along the lines of Eric and that this is a regular correction to shake out new money before a strong bounce ?

OK the weekly candle close for BTC is rough. At some point soon (in the next week or two) I believe we will see 42k at least. That doesn't mean that it's all over though. We won't know that until we see something like this:

AWm9uQTH

At the end of the last bullrun we had a drop and then the recovery. Once the recovery falls around where the arrow is, that's when we will know it's probably going down. So we have to wait. I expect BTC to recover back to around 58k, that is the key area. If it drops from there then we will see 42k for sure. If we've already seen 42k and then it goes back to 58k and drops from there then hoo boy, next target is about 35k, after that 25k. 

On a lighter note, yes this is almost certainly a shakeout right now. They are driving it lower to make people panic sell or to trigger stop losses below the low here. See how it dipped just below the previous low and then reversed? That's not an accident.

biQrd2lK

The few people who were longer in the last day or two have been taken out. Also people like this:

517674678_Screenshot2021-04-26at09_12_47.png.bb3d70a90894a7947d9dc266306a9743.png

will probably have put their panic stop loss below the low, thinking that if it breaks the low then it's falling forever. That's if they haven't panic sold already because the price has been hanging around here. As @jockeyng said, it's brutal and ruthless.

Several positives for us going into this week:

1. It is very clear from the chart that BTC money is moving into ETH. If you thought the XRPBTC chart was low, then boy take a look at the XRPETH chart. At some point both of those charts will start to rock and roll for us.

2. $1 has held nicely for us, XRPBTC still looks great.

3. Remember this trend line?

OnHR9YkG

A bunch of retail traders would've had this on their charts still. The first time around they screwed them by convincing them to go long on a false breakout a couple of days ago. This time they screwed them by convincing them to go short because the price was bouncing off the trend line. I think we will blast through now. $1.20 very soon, if we are lucky maybe 1.50.

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1 hour ago, Seoulite said:

OK the weekly candle close for BTC is rough. At some point soon (in the next week or two) I believe we will see 42k at least. That doesn't mean that it's all over though. We won't know that until we see something like this:

AWm9uQTH

At the end of the last bullrun we had a drop and then the recovery. Once the recovery falls around where the arrow is, that's when we will know it's probably going down. So we have to wait. I expect BTC to recover back to around 58k, that is the key area. If it drops from there then we will see 42k for sure. If we've already seen 42k and then it goes back to 58k and drops from there then hoo boy, next target is about 35k, after that 25k. 

On a lighter note, yes this is almost certainly a shakeout right now. They are driving it lower to make people panic sell or to trigger stop losses below the low here. See how it dipped just below the previous low and then reversed? That's not an accident.

biQrd2lK

The few people who were longer in the last day or two have been taken out. Also people like this:

517674678_Screenshot2021-04-26at09_12_47.png.bb3d70a90894a7947d9dc266306a9743.png

will probably have put their panic stop loss below the low, thinking that if it breaks the low then it's falling forever. That's if they haven't panic sold already because the price has been hanging around here. As @jockeyng said, it's brutal and ruthless.

Several positives for us going into this week:

1. It is very clear from the chart that BTC money is moving into ETH. If you thought the XRPBTC chart was low, then boy take a look at the XRPETH chart. At some point both of those charts will start to rock and roll for us.

2. $1 has held nicely for us, XRPBTC still looks great.

3. Remember this trend line?

OnHR9YkG

A bunch of retail traders would've had this on their charts still. The first time around they screwed them by convincing them to go long on a false breakout a couple of days ago. This time they screwed them by convincing them to go short because the price was bouncing off the trend line. I think we will blast through now. $1.20 very soon, if we are lucky maybe 1.50.

It is an honour to see my name in another post. Since getting in from 2017, I just saw if the market makers can steal your cat and make you weak to sell a few more cheap coins (especially the tricky bastard XRP), they will do it with no shame at all.

Edited by jockeyng
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8 minutes ago, retep said:

Could that explain the little pump we see now? And btc, eth and bnb are also doing pretty well today.

We’re still in the synchronised bot trading state we’ve been in for the past several days. We’ll continue to be there unless something fundamental changes.

Graph below with ETH(orange) and BTC(blue)

image.thumb.png.73a52b2fd9e1f5f200f656b22f5f4bfc.png

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11 hours ago, Seoulite said:

OK the weekly candle close for BTC is rough. At some point soon (in the next week or two) I believe we will see 42k at least. That doesn't mean that it's all over though. We won't know that until we see something like this:

AWm9uQTH

At the end of the last bullrun we had a drop and then the recovery. Once the recovery falls around where the arrow is, that's when we will know it's probably going down. So we have to wait. I expect BTC to recover back to around 58k, that is the key area. If it drops from there then we will see 42k for sure. If we've already seen 42k and then it goes back to 58k and drops from there then hoo boy, next target is about 35k, after that 25k. 

On a lighter note, yes this is almost certainly a shakeout right now. They are driving it lower to make people panic sell or to trigger stop losses below the low here. See how it dipped just below the previous low and then reversed? That's not an accident.

biQrd2lK

The few people who were longer in the last day or two have been taken out. Also people like this:

517674678_Screenshot2021-04-26at09_12_47.png.bb3d70a90894a7947d9dc266306a9743.png

will probably have put their panic stop loss below the low, thinking that if it breaks the low then it's falling forever. That's if they haven't panic sold already because the price has been hanging around here. As @jockeyng said, it's brutal and ruthless.

Several positives for us going into this week:

1. It is very clear from the chart that BTC money is moving into ETH. If you thought the XRPBTC chart was low, then boy take a look at the XRPETH chart. At some point both of those charts will start to rock and roll for us.

2. $1 has held nicely for us, XRPBTC still looks great.

3. Remember this trend line?

OnHR9YkG

A bunch of retail traders would've had this on their charts still. The first time around they screwed them by convincing them to go long on a false breakout a couple of days ago. This time they screwed them by convincing them to go short because the price was bouncing off the trend line. I think we will blast through now. $1.20 very soon, if we are lucky maybe 1.50.

looks like XRP has broken your trendline :).  Lets hope this is the end of the correction an not another fake out.

After a slow stat XRP is amongst the leaders on the 24 hour charts

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2 hours ago, Ripley said:

I didn’t see a sale from Jed’s wallet today. Wonder what happened.

I am not sure when exactly the data is updated but in my case it is always 1 day behind in displaying the data. If you look up the related addresses on bithomp you can see his sales in real time. Maybe the person who programmed the website wasn't aware of the timezone and makes the calls on the wrong time.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rLkMJhSVwhmummLjJPVrwQRZZYiYQhVQ1A
https://bithomp.com/explorer/rEhKZcz5Ndjm9BzZmmKrtvhXPnSWByssDv

 

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11 minutes ago, VanHasen said:

I am not saying that histroy will repead itself but I just want to show how xrp moves when its in a bull run and after massive price surges like we had 2-3 weeks ago XRP always corrected more than 50% from the top till the nex move up

 

below is an example of XRP`s move from april to june 2017 (charts are from livecoinwatch) 

end of march 2017 xrp moved from 0.01 to 0.06+ and corrected down to 0.03  (i think thats where we could be now)

image.thumb.png.15d4ea32effcd81c9fa9ecbfb6ed2126.png

 

XRP then moved more or less sideways for about 3 to 4 weeks till the beginning of may 2017, then the next move up from about 0.03 to 0.40+

and after this move XRP corrected again more than 50% down to 0.20 

image.thumb.png.bf396c65108154a15d635cf819ea2123.png

 

after that XRP consolidated for months in the 0.20-0.40 region until mid december 2017 for its last and most violent move

 

again I am in no way saying that I think this will repead for XRP but as long as BTC doesnt end the bull run we could see another violent move up for XRP in the next 2 to 4 weeks from now

My opinions...

I like this and have seen some other analysts agree with your analysis. Unfortunately we are probably still at the mercy oF BTC...but as long as it doesn’t crash and holds until end of year I think we will see another biG leg up soon followed by that final pump in Q4 😎

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