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jargoman

one billion in xrapid volume by end of 2020

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7 hours ago, Tinyaccount said:

This is actually way more complicated than those rough and simplistic calculations would make it seem.  If you want to see exactly how complicated have a look at this academic paper making a stab at a valuation by Susan Athey:

https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/fundamental-valuation-framework-for-cryptoassets/A+Fundamental+Valuation+Framework+for+Cryptoassets_June+2018.pdf

Here's my summary:

An approach to valuing crypto assets integrates the two primary functions of money:(i) medium-of-exchange & (ii)store-of-value. We leave aside the use case as a unit of account, which is less relevant. There is a 25% probability for the “XRP Success Case".

In Conclusion:  XRP succeeds  $32.91 / XRP or  XRP fails $1.59 / XRP. A fail is still a WIN because XRP is at .30 cents and probably will go down to .15 cents before prices rebound. Some money can still be made even though XRP might fail. Even if XRP is valued at $1 that's still very significant! Thanks Tinyaccount for sharing this well written document in terms of how value can be associated to the price of a digital asset. At least we know now utility plays little to no part in the valuation of price. Which I didn't know.

Edited by Scout

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4 hours ago, Scout said:

In Conclusion:  XRP succeeds  $32.91 / XRP or  XRP fails $1.59 / XRP. A fail is still a WIN because XRP is at .30 cents and probably will go down to .15 cents before prices rebound.

Actually I believe that the paper is placing the lower bound on price.  This is the result if you exclude fomo and additional use cases and Jevons Paradox.  All of those are almost certain to flow in extra value if there is even half success.

I think they took the conservative approach and only valued in the initial and obvious uses.  Similar to that famous quote made by a Nobel prize winning economist that the internet will only be about as significant as the fax machine.

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10 hours ago, pucksterpete said:

Nothing, but I was hoping for a lot more $20 or $50  :beach:

To get to $20 or $50 we have to cross $10. 

$10 in 1-2 years is exactly where we want to be. 

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18 hours ago, Kiwi said:

Cumulative volume till 2020 to be 1 billion???? 

For such a game breaking technology I would expect 1b daily. I hope he is wrong here, just like he was with his major banks, 3 of 5 remittance companies and other BS.

Your expectations suck. 

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29 minutes ago, Archbob said:

Well, considering that SWIFT does over $600 billion daily. $1b/day by the end of 2020 isn't all that earth-shattering.

It’s a fair point...but they are moving 600bio and not settling with a DA.

i think it would be more fair to compare Swift with XCurrrent volume next year and expect that settlement with xrp will take longer.

If xcurrent is moving peanuts by end of next year then i will be worried as if morning moving on xcurrent then there isn’t much use for xrp anyway.

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1 hour ago, Scout said:

This means nothing if the majority of the volume is fake

Indeed, it doesn't. Fortunately, the majority of the ODL volume isn't fake.

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On 8/13/2019 at 8:37 AM, Archbob said:

Well, considering that SWIFT does over $600 billion daily. $1b/day by the end of 2020 isn't all that earth-shattering.

If Ripple ODL can get to moving just one percent of that SWIFT vol as ODL the price movement upwards of XRP will be earth shattering, and given the superior technology of Ripplenet it is not an earth shattering target for Team Ripple to gain 10% of SWIFT's messaging market and make 10% of that ODL within a few years...and then there are other markets like micropayments, tokenisation, remittances to add to the list of potential target markets.  

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