one billion in xrapid volume by end of 2020

[jargoman]

https://dailyxrpnews.com/1-billion-xrapid-volume-end-of-2020-brad-garlinghouse-making-major-xrapid-xrp-statements-today-2

News is a few days old now. I think a lot of people are disappointed and expecting 1 billion in volume to occur any day and 10 billion plus by 2020. 

Feels like a snails pace. 

If you put things into perspective this is phenomenal news. 

lets say by 2020 there are 50 billion XRP in circulation. 

The melons lost a billion. So lets assume maybe 2% of that 50 billion are lost forever.

leaves 48 billion. Lets also split the supply into 3 categories. 

cold storage and hodlers. 33.33%
institutional holders 33.33%
market makers and day traders. 33.33%

Lets say at most 16 billion XRP are used to facilitate payments each day. 

What will those 16 billion XRP be worth? They will be worth their time value. 

one billion in volume is 365 billion in volume a year. If market makers are scalping 1% of each payment then there is 3.5 billion to be made a year. 

So what is 3.5 billion a year worth? If someone pays 35 billion for those 16 billion XRP, they could earn 10% a year. 

35 billion dollars / 16 billion XRP = $2.1875 per XRP by the end of 2020. MINIMUM !!!

If the volume is expected to grow exponentially then XRP would be trading a few times it's fair price. The $10 predictions by the end of 2020 are reasonable.





 

[Caracappa]

Look, it's nice people try to do this math but its not gonna cut it. You're allready wrong with the '2% of 50bln = 48bln' and then you grasp some random incoherent numbers, put them together and come up with $ 2.1875 per XRP...

Also the page doesn't show anything in where BG says 1 bln in 2020.

[Dario_o]

[jbjnr]

From the article https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ripple-brad-garlinghouse-multiple-deals-moneygram-050000149.html

"Garlinghouse said he expected “over $1bn of xRapid volume” by the end of 2020."

Which I understand to mean that xRapid will have transferred a total of $1bn by the end of 2020. about 2.7million per day if you ignore the remainder of 2019 and just take 1e9/365. Still quite a lot, but nothing like the numbers you are quoting.

[jargoman]

7 minutes ago, Caracappa said:

Look, it's nice people try to do this math but its not gonna cut it. You're allready wrong with the '2% of 50bln = 48bln' and then you grasp some random incoherent numbers, put them together and come up with $ 2.1875 per XRP...

Also the page doesn't show anything in where BG says 1 bln in 2020.

omg you're right. I meant 49 billion. I still think 16 billion daily traded XRP is very high. Would likely be way way less. Like 1% of coins in circulation. But I'm not talking daily traded coins. I'm talking about the number of coins allocated to market making. Most of those coins just sit there. 

[Guest]

This is actually way more complicated than those rough and simplistic calculations would make it seem.  If you want to see exactly how complicated have a look at this academic paper making a stab at a valuation by Susan Athey:

https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/fundamental-valuation-framework-for-cryptoassets/A+Fundamental+Valuation+Framework+for+Cryptoassets_June+2018.pdf

[jargoman]

2 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

From the article https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ripple-brad-garlinghouse-multiple-deals-moneygram-050000149.html

"Garlinghouse said he expected “over $1bn of xRapid volume” by the end of 2020."

Which I understand to mean that xRapid will have transferred a total of $1bn by the end of 2020. about 2.7million per day if you ignore the remainder of 2019 and just take 1e9/365. Still quite a lot, but nothing like the numbers you are quoting.

2.7 million * 10 / 16 billion = $0.000592593

We're all doomed !!!

[jargoman]

4 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

This is actually way more complicated than those rough and simplistic calculations would make it seem.  If you want to see exactly how complicated have a look at this academic paper making a stab at a valuation by Susan Athey:

https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/fundamental-valuation-framework-for-cryptoassets/A+Fundamental+Valuation+Framework+for+Cryptoassets_June+2018.pdf

XRP is a market making coin. It's value and usage is literally market making. It would never go too far below it's time value because a market maker could scoop them up and recover his/her money through market making. It's basically price per earnings except with XRP earning are made through market making. 

 

[mistatee2000]

13 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

This is actually way more complicated than those rough and simplistic calculations would make it seem.  If you want to see exactly how complicated have a look at this academic paper making a stab at a valuation by Susan Athey:

https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/fundamental-valuation-framework-for-cryptoassets/A+Fundamental+Valuation+Framework+for+Cryptoassets_June+2018.pdf

As you say complicated.

I remember reading the paper at the time, but even as a fundamental document, it became too much of a chore. Re-reading the work that must have been started at least at the beginning of 2018, I find certain insights regarding XRP on the button:

"In our “XRP Success Case,” XRP secures very high adoption for remittances (through the adoption by companies such as Moneygram, Western Union, Cuallix, who have already announced pilots or plans to use XRP), strong adoption for cross-border payments, and comparatively modest adoption for global FOREX trading (limited to lower-volume corridors not well served by financial institutions today)."

"Corporate payments represent another large opportunity for XRP, though it is unlikely that XRP will achieve the same dominant share of this market as in retail remittances. Large corporates tend to adopt new technologies more slowly and reluctantly than consumers, and certain corporates will likely opt to stay on the SWIFT system despite its technological limitations. Ultimately, in our “XRP Success Case”, XRP will be adopted by a large minority segment of the market that is most willing to adopt new technologies and for whom cross-border payment efficiency gains would represent a strategically critical business improvement."

[User46482]

Where does it actually say 1 billion in a year? 2.7 million a day doesn’t really seem like something you’d highlight. More XRP is sold on exchanges. 

[pucksterpete]

$2 or $10 by end of 2020, God I hope not!

[jbjnr]

28 minutes ago, MaxMad said:

Where does it actually say 1 billion in a year? 2.7 million a day doesn’t really seem like something you’d highlight. More XRP is sold on exchanges. 

The quote from the article is "Garlinghouse said he expected “over $1bn of xRapid volume” by the end of 2020." - you can interpret it as daily volume if you want, but since he didn't say that - or isn't quoted as saying that, it is probably not daily. Global remittances were $500B in 2018 (wikipedia), so it is unlikely that ripple manage to get 70+% of the market in a year. (it wasn't so very long ago that ripple announced they'd made $1b worth of transfers using xCurrent and I was surprised then by how little traffic they had comparatively speaking).

[Janno]

I think 1 Billion total is reasonable goal. People expect everything to happen instantly, but these things take time.

xRapid is only live at USD, MXN and PHP corridors. Since xRapid launch late 2018, xRapid volume has been really low and only now after Moneygram announcement we are starting to see more significant volume going through.

Also not too long ago xCurrent volume was around 1 billion / year https://www.reddit.com/r/Ripple/comments/8scil9/1_billion_over_xcurrent_in_past_year

Its slow and incremental process, you can't just flip a switch and move all money though ripplenet, it does not work like that.

 

 

Edited August 12, 2019 by Janno

[LiquidGoat]

49 minutes ago, pucksterpete said:

$2 or $10 by end of 2020, God I hope not!

What’s wrong with 10bucks? Honest question.

[Kiwi]

Cumulative volume till 2020 to be 1 billion???? 

For such a game breaking technology I would expect 1b daily. I hope he is wrong here, just like he was with his major banks, 3 of 5 remittance companies and other BS.