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JannaOneTrick

Q3 - Paradigm shift on the buying pressure of XRP

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Your views Janna are very reflective of my own and very eloquently put together. I feel that we are too early to get a feel for the  medium to long term trend, but your initial analysis is at least positive.

I get the feeling that Ripple wanted to improve the liquidity of XRP with the OTC sales but miscalculated the level of false accounting from the exchanges, thus de-stabling the XRP price. I believe that the same source of false data would have been used for the sales of Jeds' holdings (I know he hadn't been selling directly, but his donations to charity were covered in this period), thus exacerbating the whole over-supply issue.

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Posted (edited)

Paradigm shift on the buying pressure of XRP results in a paradigm shift for @JannaOneTrick‘s comfort and confidence level wrt Ripple and the future for XRP. I love it!

I saw your frustration and discomfort in your infrequent posts of late. From my perspective, there was a paradigm shift in how you saw this effort playing out. You were clearly becoming concerned. At first this was a little alarming to me because you’re one of the most cerebral posters here so I value your analysis and opinion. You’re the brains in this outfit.

Then it got quiet so I thought  and hoped you were digging, listening and analyzing to make better sense of things and, today’s Janna interpretation doesn’t disappoint. It’s nice to have some one with a critical eye and someone who’s more than willing to challenge the status quo. 

The one thing I think a lot of people on this forum miss, forget or possibly don’t even know is that in order to be successful you have to be willing to pivot in your approach based on what you learn. I see Ripple constantly pivoting and changing the way they do business based on what they learn.

Do they make mistakes? Absolutely. Do they learn from their mistakes? Absolutely. Are some mistakes harder to overcome? Absolutely.

One mistake (at least I see it as a mistake and believe you might as well) was the founders distribution of XRP to themselves. If they could go back in time and do this over again I suspect they would do it differently. It’s just a guess on my part and it’s irrelevant because they can’t do it differently. Point is where Ripple makes mistakes and can pivot to advance the effort they do. Your interpretation of the Q2 report demonstrates that again to me. I expect we’ll see positive results going out of Q3.

Edited by Roaring_Twenties

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Posted (edited)

What a wonderful post and interesting analysis - thank you Janna

I have been investing for 18 months and never seen my DCA in the green. I have learnt to steady my nerves by ignoring the fluctuations in price and instead concentrated on news of adoption of XRP across the many markets targeted by team Ripple.  

I was aware of some doubts creeping in to your posts a few weeks ago, but also noticed a more positive view being revived on your twitter commentary (I have started following you on twitter).  I like your analysis and hope you are right, although I will miss buying a few more XRP monthly at .31 cents each.  I interpreted the quotes in the Q2 report as a signal to the investment community that Ripple are now wanting to see the price of XRP gain in value so that liquidity will be added to the XRapid corridors.

We must not forget Clover have about a billion XRP that they are gradually unloading and CL seems to have been selling at a steady rate (thank you for collating those sales). I expect CL sales are part of Ripple's greater strategy and they will stop.

Edited by Julian_Williams

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Amazing DD. 

But the real reason XRP will go up now is because I sold some.....me selling always primes the pump.

(Just kidding.)

Thank you for sharing your intel with us. Excellent research and excellent analysis. I look forward to being REALLY sorry I sold. Going to Uphold to buy my zerps back now.

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Great post @JannaOneTrick, really interesting analysis.

Like many people I had recently been frustrated with the programmatic selling of XRP by Ripple, but when you look at the bigger picture it's bullish. I really feel as though XRP is like a volcano, pressure is building and building and eventually we are going to just explode. The short term doesn't matter, we are all investors here and we all need to be patient, then we will be rewarded. Keep up the great work and thank you for your efforts!

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1 hour ago, 2ndtimearound said:

Great post. 

Here's the thing: XRP sold 900 million XRP in the last 3 months.  What other major crypto is having nearly 1% of its max supply bought up inside just 3 months?  Imagine that buy pressure squeezed to exchanges.  I see and have faith in Ripple's game plan - it's about liquidity.  Liquidity = demand for number of units on exchanges * price (volume).  People complain we're stuck at 30 cents.  No other crypto that I know of has had the SELL pressure that XRP has had (thanks Chris, Jed, Clover et al), all the while the big buying was done OTC.  That's hardly fair to the retail investor, and I totally get the complaints.  And yet, XRP has held its very strong support level at around 30 cents.  That's actually an amazingly bullish signal.  It shows me Ripple have this well under control and they have now completed a very aggressive phase of distribution.  Now they are tending to the value....in that they trust the market will now lift the price of XRP via institutional buys on exchanges.   Won't we all be feeling a lot better if we're looking at an 80 cents XRP or $1 XRP? Then imagine the FOMO on top of the buy pressure from institutions. 

 

 

If the 900m number is coming from the funds that were not returned to escrow I believe that total does not equate to solely sales.  Ripple does state that funds not returned to escrow are either sold or used as they see fit towards Xpring initiatives, which includes funding (i.e. gifting) with XRP and NDA's to prevent rampant dumping by companies which received blocks of XRP for integration purposes.

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26 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

Great stuff Jana.

Another aspect of this that I don’t think has registered well as yet is this possibility:  

I suspect Ripple must have very bullish projections for next quarters else they could not do this proportional easing.

The giant war chest in escrow must be distributed.  Ripple know that,  and I believe place it as a very high priority.  So they can’t turn away distribution (sales) requests unless they believe the overall volume is going to rise and make good the ‘lost’ sales.

Now given that they, unlike us, actually do know what moves are coming up...   if they have good projections that makes me very happy.  I don’t know whether it will be Moneygram or SBI or Santander or some other,  but it looks to me like they are aware that things are soon going to get busy.

 

I admit that I could be wrong about this,  but it seems self consistent logic and it fits all the facts that I’m aware of.

I agree with this theory.  Ripple can't pump the brakes so easily unless they have a pretty obvious ramp up in value coming from somewhere.  Maybe it's the price of XRP or maybe it's their own product sales because projections show they are going to have a lot of potential customers knocking on their door over the coming months.  Interesting times! 

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5 minutes ago, Zedy44 said:

Maybe it's the price of XRP or maybe it's their own product sales because projections

I’m saying that it’s not the lost revenue that they would need to replace,  it’s the distribution that needs to continue.  

So I’m not talking about dollars received.  I’m saying they have a distribution curve target they need and want to meet,  so they must be assuming an overall growth in volume to make up for those sales they would forego.

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18 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

I’m saying that it’s not the lost revenue that they would need to replace,  it’s the distribution that needs to continue.  

So I’m not talking about dollars received.  I’m saying they have a distribution curve target they need and want to meet,  so they must be assuming an overall growth in volume to make up for those sales they would forego.

Ahhh OK.  I understand now.  Yes if that is the case it's a very bullish sign for adoption going forward.

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