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JannaOneTrick

Q2 2019 XRP Markets Report

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19 minutes ago, Zedy44 said:

Does anyone know of non-Ripple based companies which offer OTC sales of XRP?  I was thinking maybe someone like Arrington Capital or SBI / R3 depending on what kind of agreements they have in place.  But I don't really know of any publicly advertised XRP OTC sales desks.  Someone with more experience on the topic can probably confirm.

I bet this is done through crypto-exchanges like Kraken, Binance etc. One must contact Ripple first and get verified by them to get this kind of arrangement. OTC desks most probably assembled by one of IBs and they support exchanges behind the scenes as I wrote here:

 

Edited by Lamberth

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Here are my thoughts:

"Given the reports of inflated volumes, which Ripple took seriously, the company temporarily paused programmatic sales and placed limits on institutional sales to evaluate the problem in early Q2."

- I wish @jbjnr will publish his Q2 analysis so we could see did he capture the pausing or limits of the XRP sales.

 

"Ripple decided to pull back from providing XRP over-the-counter at scale toward the end of Q2, in light of the OTC desks’ ability to source institutional demand for XRP in the open markets. Going forward, Ripple plans to focus institutional sales on markets where the on-exchange liquidity for XRP is insufficient to meet institutional demand."

- XRP II selling indeed decreased towards the end of Q2. This new trend might continue if Ripple really manages to encourage institutions to buy from open markets (?)

 

"Ripple relies on programmatic sales partners who mainly execute trades passively; their trading volumes do not vary based on changes in the price of XRP, but they do increase as overall XRP trading volumes increase."

- So whenever we see mini bull run where the XRP (24h) volume spikes then they will increase the dumping. We have seen this like 20 times already. Don't FOMOing to pumps because they will very likely dumped down shortly after. This behavior prevents XRP mooning even if all other cryptos would moon. The best (maybe the only) chance to XRP moon will be if the dumpers experience technical malfunction which will stop the dumps.

 

"Xpring makes investments using a mix of traditional currency and XRP.  XRP investments are generally subject to sales restrictions and intended for direct use in the tools and services being developed."

- Those XRP investments create more XRP selling pressure. It adds up. The more XRP dumpers the more overall XRP selling pressure. If they have different/independent XRP selling methods then I find it difficult to see XRP price to increase much within the next couple of years at least.

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Just now, hallwaymonitor said:

 

- So whenever we see mini bull run where the XRP (24h) volume spikes then they will increase the dumping. We have seen this like 20 times already. Don't FOMOing to pumps because they will very likely dumped down shortly after. This behavior prevents XRP mooning even if all other cryptos would moon. The best (maybe the only) chance to XRP moon will be if the dumpers experience technical malfunction which will stop the dumps.

 

I was wondering that exact thing. That is infuriating if that is how it works.

You're referring to times like when XRP stuck its toe in $0.50 only to get blasted down instantaneously a few weeks ago.

It's like a sniper was waiting for XRP to touch $0.50.

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25 minutes ago, AlejoMoreno said:

Regarding the institutions. I hate when this word is used because "who" exactly are these "institutions" that are constantly buying millions of XRP each quarter?

Unless I am not recalling I don't think Ripple has ever clarified (not they that are obligated to) who these institutions are.

I am just wondering why the institutions are buying so much and what are they going to do with it?

Its interesting because I don't think "institutions" are buying any other Cryptocurrency/Digital Asset in such large amounts regularly.

I agree more transparency would be great on the topic of what and who Ripple designates as an institutional buyer.  I'm guessing (as others have said) it's mostly exchanges.  Perhaps Ripple feels by limiting today's liquid exchanges from future OTC purchases they are forcing their hand into opening corridors to non-liquid markets to continue making OTC purchases?  Sort of a way to provide an incentive into exchange expansion, which would align with Xrapid's settlement design.

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This seems very encouraging to me.  

There are a couple of things that I was not aware of that are revealed,  and they bode well.  Also I’d like to comment on a small and now-persistent change in the report.

Firstly the very good news...   Ripple appear to be somewhat redirecting OTC sales into the open market.  This can only be a good thing in terms of short term price.

 

Implications for Escrow.

One thing that occurs to me is that Ripple must be forecasting excellent growth in XRP demand,  or they wouldn’t be redirecting OTC volume out to market.  

They are fully aware of the need to distribute the escrowed XRP,  and I’m sure it’s a high priority.  Redirecting some (much?) of their OTC volume away from the escrowed OTC would probably only be a smart move if they were sure the overall volumes were going to increase, and looked on track to continue the distribution at a good pace.  

I’ve speculated elsewhere that the Escrow was being eaten at an increasing rate and that many estimates of the time taken for the distribution to exceed monthly releases could be much shorter than many suppose.  It will be interesting to see what @jbjnr has to say about future escrow sales.  (If he continues his excellent work in that area...   I and many others really appreciate that work he has done)

 

SEC node.

This was a surprise to me...  probably I’m just behind the news,  but it’s good news,  that’s for sure.  This represents a tangible sign of the ongoing increase in regulatory engagement in this space.  It’s part of what our imagined future state of global finance would look like.

 

Reliable metrics.

The fact that Ripple are naming a definitive (at least for this moment) source of market metrics is a good thing for the whole space.  If this is adopted more widely it will be the start of cutting the herd to isolate the bullshite  (to mix my cattle metaphors...  :) ).

 

Miguel

A third report authored by “Team Ripple” rather than @miguel.   I respect his acumen immensely and wonder what is going on with him.   Deliberately fading into the background,  or no longer doing the role?  I believe he is still at Ripple,  but am not sure of that or if he still is head of markets.  I’d love to know just because I’m a nosey...    :) 

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3 hours ago, ManBearPig said:

 

Use the classic compounding interest rate formula.

P = principal amount (the initial amount you borrow or deposit)

r  = annual rate of interest (as a decimal)

t  = number of years the amount is deposited or borrowed for.

A = amount of money accumulated after n years, including interest.

n  =  number of times the interest is compounded per year 

image.png.39b14122ef6c3af27c938fce9b8fd9a4.png

 

Since the question was asked what is 170% compounded growth over 8 consecutive quarters, you can get rid of N as it does not correlate with this example. Using an arbitrary 1 dollar amount as x-rapid volume

Amount = 1 (1+1.70)^8

Amount =  X 2,824

 

 

Thank you for sorting out the math! I didn't expect my question to generate so much debate :D

Next question - so what is the estimated xRapid volume at the moment? Anyone has an educated guess?

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One place you might see an indicator of XRapid volume is Galgitron’s twitter feed.   He plots the payments in value bands.  The yellow from memory is the likely remittance payments and is trending upwards but from a very low starting point. 

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1 hour ago, Tinyaccount said:

This seems very encouraging to me.  

There are a couple of things that I was not aware of that are revealed,  and they bode well.  Also I’d like to comment on a small and now-persistent change in the report.

Firstly the very good news...   Ripple appear to be somewhat redirecting OTC sales into the open market.  This can only be a good thing in terms of short term price.

 

Implications for Escrow.

One thing that occurs to me is that Ripple must be forecasting excellent growth in XRP demand,  or they wouldn’t be redirecting OTC volume out to market.  

They are fully aware of the need to distribute the escrowed XRP,  and I’m sure it’s a high priority.  Redirecting some (much?) of their OTC volume away from the escrowed OTC would probably only be a smart move if they were sure the overall volumes were going to increase, and looked on track to continue the distribution at a good pace.  

I’ve speculated elsewhere that the Escrow was being eaten at an increasing rate and that many estimates of the time taken for the distribution to exceed monthly releases could be much shorter than many suppose.  It will be interesting to see what @jbjnr has to say about future escrow sales.  (If he continues his excellent work in that area...   I and many others really appreciate that work he has done)

 

SEC node.

This was a surprise to me...  probably I’m just behind the news,  but it’s good news,  that’s for sure.  This represents a tangible sign of the ongoing increase in regulatory engagement in this space.  It’s part of what our imagined future state of global finance would look like.

 

Reliable metrics.

The fact that Ripple are naming a definitive (at least for this moment) source of market metrics is a good thing for the whole space.  If this is adopted more widely it will be the start of cutting the herd to isolate the bullshite  (to mix my cattle metaphors...  :) ).

 

Miguel

A third report authored by “Team Ripple” rather than @miguel.   I respect his acumen immensely and wonder what is going on with him.   Deliberately fading into the background,  or no longer doing the role?  I believe he is still at Ripple,  but am not sure of that or if he still is head of markets.  I’d love to know just because I’m a nosey...    :) 

Miguel is still with Ripple but given the amount of information on the report he is definitely not the only one putting it together now (if he ever was.) 

I know a while ago Ripple (either Brad or David I think) said that the markets report is a nightmare to put together. Perhaps to give credit to the team and not pin it all on him, they chose to say "Team Ripple" instead of putting his name on it.

Also, the report is similar to a company's financial statements or other external reporting that a company does. In that respect, if there is a problem with the statements or reports, you would go after the company as a whole, not just one person working for the company.

Brad Garlinghouse and others probably review the report I'm sure before it goes out the door.

If I was in Miguel's shoes I would not want my name on that report as the sole person responsible.

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19 minutes ago, yxxyun said:

I remember they said reduce in q2 but actually sell more in q2, now they said reduce again...

The huge surge in volume in early Q2 caused a massive increase in sales. They throttled back (at the end May / start of June), but not in time to make the Q2 sales in total less than the Q1 sales since 2 out of 3 months had already elapsed.

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2 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

The huge surge in volume in early Q2 caused a massive increase in sales. They throttled back (at the end May / start of June), but not in time to make the Q2 sales in total less than the Q1 sales since 2 out of 3 months had already elapsed.

its funny because once they dial it back and sell less the fudsters will be like

"See ripple is selling less and less of the xrps, shitcoin etc"

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