XRP to $20, different perspective

[ObeyTheWafflehouse 435]

Bitcoin has been on fire these past few months, and XRP for the majority of the time has remained static. This called into question, "Why?" The same thing happened in late 2017, early 2018 where XRP really took off. This sparked the idea that I may be looking at this all wrong. 

Normally when looking at a chart, I look at XRP vs USD to put it into perspective by comparing it to something that I know and am familiar with. However we are talking about crypto. Crypto is an a different beast all on its own and is independent of all other markets. With this, I looked into BTC vs XRP and found something very interesting.

On the first chart, I mapped out the previous ATH to the next low during each "satohsi bear market." Each blue box represents support and resistance lows. At first glimpse, this chart does not look like anything special until I started to chart a few move critical points. 

 

There is a lot going on with this chart, but bear with me. The first ATH in 2015 PULLED BACK ~95% to the low in mid 2017 which took ~801 days. In return, the price ran to a short burst of ~10,000%. Then we entered into another satoshi bear market which PULLED BACK ~95% for ~196 days before we entered into another short burst which the price ran approximately ~1800%. Notice how the market is respecting the support/resistance levels that was identified from the first chart, and also notice that each satoshi pull back of ~95% marks a short burst to the resistance level approximately at .00022 satoshi. 

Currently we are in another satoshi bear market, but we have NOT pulled back ~95% yet. Notice the non significant marker that I placed. Remember in October of 2018 XRP spiked while other crypto markets were not disturbed, for arguments sake, I am going to ignore this movement. At current price (.00003519), we still need to pull back another ~70% satoshi in order to achieve our 95% pull back from the previous bull run high to enter into our next bull run.

IMO, and I may be wrong, but the longer the time of the pull back (while BTC is rising in price) creates a bigger divergence between the two price actions. It looks like we are entering the longer cycle of the pull back, and I expect a 10,000% short burst in price action based on the bull run in mid 2017. This would put the price of XRP (if XRP is currently valued around .44 cents) at ~$22 (Loadstar II for you bear followers), and I would expect that we enter into a satoshi bear market again. 

 

 

[XRPboi 508]

Big market players are building liquidity/capital over time by getting the market going. Pull as much as they can in(stablecoins), and then pump it hard into XRP to ensure it has the highest overall gain (and to reward holders, of course). 

 

Probably unlikely, but it's fun to dream

[ObeyTheWafflehouse 435]

Well, I notice there is the push/pull pattern in the crypto markets. You have to understand crypto moves differently than all other markets, which may be due to its fixed supply. To me it seems that cryptos has a whole has these so called "seasons." If you can accurately map a season, then you can start to predict a possible market entry/exit. 

[XRPboi 508]

What time frame does your mapping suggest this may take place? July? Or closer to 2020?

[ObeyTheWafflehouse 435]

17 hours ago, XRPboi said:

What time frame

It's hard to put an exact time frame on it because it depends on the market conditions. An approximation would be .00001165 satoshi level of a 95% pull back, which we would have a better idea when you would hit that level. It could take months, but my guess would be by years end is when we would see a bull run for XRP if this chart has these so called "seasons." 

[Yodaxrp 1,286]

19 hours ago, ObeyTheWafflehouse said:

$22 (Loadstar II for you bear followers

Like these few words! About timing I guess more march 2020, but just my very personal opinion.

[ObeyTheWafflehouse 435]

7 minutes ago, Yodaxrp said:

march 2020

Yes, I've been wrong with my prediction of BTC breaking out of the bear market. I was anticipating late summer, early fall and BTC broke out months before that. I don't like to make predictions on specific timelines because the market is always changing and new money is always entering. 

[Yodaxrp 1,286]

2 minutes ago, ObeyTheWafflehouse said:

Yes, I've been wrong with my prediction of BTC breaking out of the bear market. I was anticipating late summer, early fall and BTC broke out months before that. I don't like to make predictions on specific timelines because the market is always changing and new money is always entering. 

Agree totally with you. My march 2020 is not actually a prediction. More an approx date based on the fact (following the opinion of certain ta guys) that xrp works in 273 days cycles.

[Vesm 1,521]

The final pullback down to 1500 sats would happen if BTC push up to $25k and we remain steady around $0.40. It could also be that we have a slight increase to $0.60 but where btc increase to $35k.

I find this a somewhat likely scenario. At least btc increasing for a while longer while we remain steady. 

Our bullrun will likely happen as BTC is pulling back a bit. Possibly retracting down to $20k. Us being at 25k sats would put us around $5. I don't expect to go as high as $20 in the next run, since it would probably put us around 100k sats... Hopefully I'm wrong though, haha

[2ndtimearound 6,714]

Given BTC has reached as high as $13,900 recently, I predict XRP will be at least $2 this year.  Low satoshi values are a huge buy signal...they have ultimately triggered a huge impulse with XRP.  No doubt that right now, manipulation is keeping XRP low.

[ObeyTheWafflehouse 435]

8 hours ago, PactaSuntServanda said:

What's your view on this theory?

Crypto markets move unlike any other markets. I think that when "new money" enters, it's normally through bitcoin first since it has been well established. From my view, bitcoin pumps in price while alts stay relatively at the same price point. Once bitcoin hits a certain ratio (alt coin to satoshi) , the money starts to move from bitcoin into the alts. Remember Dec. 2018? Bitcoin pumped hard to 20k and then started its downward trend. Meanwhile, XRP skyrocketed in price and thus we see the upper limit on the chart (XRPBTC) retested. 

For the past two occurrences, XRP vs sastoshi has pulled back ~95%. I am assuming this next bull run will be no different. 

Side note: Crypto markets love Fibonacci numbers. I would be eyeing the break in that green trendline that you drew on the chart. I would put an estimate of EOY when we break that trendline.

[Finesse 272]

I just wish when we get to 22$ we wouldnt retrace massively and hold gains.

But i know weak bags will fold and early adopters will cash out, maybe not this bullrun but the next well break 100$

[ObeyTheWafflehouse 435]

4 hours ago, Finesse said:

we wouldnt retrace massively and hold gains.

If ripple succeeds, which evidence is strongly suggesting we are heading that way, we shouldn't have a retracement of 95% every crypto season. What I would be looking for is when XRP market cap breaks above the market cap of bitcoin. I think people outside of crypto will take note, and XRP will be the dominate force or king of crypto. Bitcoin and POW systems are going to be a dying breed. That is not an opinion, that is a fact.

I would strongly suggest taking a look at the bigger picture. Ripple is in the same room as central bankers, IMF, governments, FIs, etc. I don't see bitcoin, ethereum, stellar, etc. sitting at the same table or even the same room. There is definitely a lot going on behind scenes. Be patient. 

[mrhat75 1,129]

22 minutes ago, ObeyTheWafflehouse said:

If ripple succeeds, which evidence is strongly suggesting we are heading that way, we shouldn't have a retracement of 95% every crypto season. What I would be looking for is when XRP market cap breaks above the market cap of bitcoin. I think people outside of crypto will take note, and XRP will be the dominate force or king of crypto. Bitcoin and POW systems are going to be a dying breed. That is not an opinion, that is a fact.

I would strongly suggest taking a look at the bigger picture. Ripple is in the same room as central bankers, IMF, governments, FIs, etc. I don't see bitcoin, ethereum, stellar, etc. sitting at the same table or even the same room. There is definitely a lot going on behind scenes. Be patient. 

Logic would make you think so. But it's made you think that for the past 18+ months as well....

[ObeyTheWafflehouse 435]

Working theory. Everyone is asking. "Wen moon?" Well the theory is when XRP measured in BTC pulls back 95%, XRP enters into a full raging bull. This has been the case the only 2 times in XRP's trading history.

When the charts are compared side by side there are two signals to watch for.

1. XRP measured in BTC will be less than .00001000. We will be approximately at 95% of the pullback.

2. When XRP breaks above the resistance line measured in USD. Depending on the timeline, XRP breaks above the resistance north of .45 cents. 

My first signal is an alert set when XRP's price measure in BTC falls below .00001000. As you can see we are a couple of months out, but it looks like before EOY we may enter into a raging bull.