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jbjnr

Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation

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19 hours ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

We aren’t talking about the escrow sales here, but about the sales on market out of Ripples own warchest to fund their operations. Or not?  At least that was my understanding. 

I'm not entirely sure where the funds come from - and I'm not sure if it matters if it is escrow or warchest - all we really care about is how much and how large an effect it has on the market. I'm reasonably confident that if the crypto news web sites pick up these charts, they will spin it to monumental FUD proportions regardless. I have not done tracking of payments from escrow release to wallets that then fund XRP-II to see where it's coming from, but that might be a good idea. I'm more interested now in focusing on xRapid analysis for my next project.

NB. I hesitated for a long time about posting this stuff here because I suspect it will cause a lot more hatred towards the bankster scam coin.

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I rarely visit general discussion because the topics are usually light weight or moon talk or FUD.

Your analysis deserves praise and considered responses.

Thanks for the good work and for those who have contributed to the discussion.

Agree with you re the gifs. It's your post so you don't have to say "please" :-)

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33 minutes ago, johnc said:

It's your post so you don't have to say "please" :-)

We ALWAYS should say please...  it’s what builds a civil society.  But this is off topic so I apologise for that.

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6 hours ago, Valhalla_Guy said:

????

You apparently didn’t read my post properly. 

Quote

I take your point, and will work on my manners. With that said, I have gradually devolved to this state, from what was once a different guy. My patience ran out, but I will try to reset.

 apologies to @Tinyaccount

No offence taken...  you accused me of being blinded and a fan boy...  to be honest I think I’m mostly rational and considered.  On the other hand I feel that you have unfortunately gotten so disgruntled that it has coloured your thinking.on this matter.  

I agree with @jbjnr and everyone else,  that have said that although the ongoing selling is not wonderful, it is necessary,  and the fairest option available,  I also agree that at some point there may come a time when the whole lot is moved holus bolus to the IMF or some other third party.  But that may not happen,  and until (if) it does...  sales are the only sensible way forward.

Dumping them all as you suggest Valhalla is the dumbest and least productive thing that they could do.  A massive  flood of cold water onto the tiny fire that they are trying to nurse into life.

You paint me and others as fan boys worshipping our gods...  that’s ridiculous,  and to some extent speaks to a simplistic way of viewing the world.  Instead I consider Brad, David etc to be people like me...  decent enough folk that are trying to do the right thing.  My assessment is that they are playing a straight bat.  Those who demonise them, and feel we are all suckers,  seem to have the blinkered view in my opinion. 

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Dumping kept the price below 1c for years and it wasn't Ripple. The escrow solution clearly was put in to be not quick. I do have interest in how creative the escrow structure is or could be.

Edited by Guest

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The thing is a movement to a wallet doesn't mean its then sold right away, it could be ripple stocking up in their exchange wallet anticipating higher volume coming to make sales. We really dont know, and many times like september 2018, there was outside factors like the swell announcement upcoming that was hinted at, which moved the market dramatically and it likely had nothing to do with the small amount ripple salles compared to overall volume( As well as the fact that they had a huge amount of OTC demand that quarter, so they likely sold much less programtically sas they didn't need to. @BobWay care to voice your opinion on this please?

Edited by MikeNard77
spelling fix, add sentence about OTC sales

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5 hours ago, jbjnr said:

Even if nobody is using it yet, we want to create the kind of market conditions that makes them think it's a good idea to try it and if XRP is stable over the long term, then they might consider it.

My disagreement with one part, (the rationale), of your overall view is to do with the timing.  

If I understand you correctly you feel that the Corda settler and FI buy in needs the field set now so the play can start a bit later.  And therefore Ripple are motivated to create those conditions of stability now. 

I disagree because the conditions will organically grow out of increased usage.  

Ripple knows that,  and are busily engaged bringing the first movers into remittance so the volume will grow and suit the later conditions you described as necessary for FI holding.

So we disagree that Ripple have a motive to keep the price steady.  In the initial remittance usage of XRP the tens of seconds volatility is insignificant.  

Given the many unknowns in the excellent analysis you have done,  I think it’s best to apply Ockhams Razor and take them at their word rather than build a theory about their motivation and use that as the explanation.

Ripple have repeatedly said a higher price is beneficial to liquidity which is the core of this first phase.  They are treading a fine line between distributing too fast and hosing the market, and too slow and not achieving the distributed liquidity they need.

I accept their word that they do not wish to manipulate the price in any way.  What exactly is happening with these numbers is certainly interesting,  and hopefully one day we will actually know what was going on.  

Thanks again JBJNR for your sterling (or should I say XRP?  :) ) work.

 

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8 hours ago, MemberBerry said:

Señor... 'is ripple Dumping xrp?'

Señorita, por favor, Ripple is Thumping.

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8 hours ago, Tinyaccount said:

My disagreement with one part, (the rationale), of your overall view is to do with the timing.  

If I understand you correctly you feel that the Corda settler and FI buy in needs the field set now so the play can start a bit later.  And therefore Ripple are motivated to create those conditions of stability now. 

I disagree because the conditions will organically grow out of increased usage.  

OK, I agree with that part - but who is going to rebalance the corridors that are already open? Mexico, Philippines, now/soon India, Brazil - someone at the other end of those channels has to absorb a lot of XRP and use it to generate new MXN that can be used to buy up XRP from all the incoming payments. For that to happen, a reasonably non-volatile price is going to help. (I think - but I welcome discussion from anyone who has expertise in this area).

 

8 hours ago, Tinyaccount said:

So we disagree that Ripple have a motive to keep the price steady.  In the initial remittance usage of XRP the tens of seconds volatility is insignificant.  

So my previous answer is really trying to address that comment.

8 hours ago, Tinyaccount said:

Given the many unknowns in the excellent analysis you have done,  I think it’s best to apply Ockhams Razor and take them at their word rather than build a theory about their motivation and use that as the explanation.

Ripple have repeatedly said a higher price is beneficial to liquidity which is the core of this first phase.  They are treading a fine line between distributing too fast and hosing the market, and too slow and not achieving the distributed liquidity they need.

I accept their word that they do not wish to manipulate the price in any way.  What exactly is happening with these numbers is certainly interesting,  and hopefully one day we will actually know what was going on.  

OK. As a scientist, I'm good with occam's razor, so I'm with you on that one - and I also agree that the ripple execs are honest and they are not trying to be misleading. But the evidence of Graph 4 in my analysis has to be explained somehow. If we adopt occam's razor then the simplest explanation is that there are other wallets making payments that I have not included in my analysis and there is no 'manipulation' going on. All we are seeing is an effect of bad sampling of the data. That being the case, we have no choice but to wait until the Q2 report comes out and see if there is/are any useful hints in it that help explain things. I somehow doubt we'll get anything more than a % of sales update and maybe a comment about market conditions.

For now, I'd like to continue speculating - this is the kind of discussion I was hoping to stimulate, particularly the problem of rebalancing payment corridors -which is my main reason to believe that ripple needs a stable price. Someone must know more about this. Bobway perhaps?

 

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9 hours ago, 7Bs said:

Dumping kept the price below 1c for years and it wasn't Ripple. The escrow solution clearly was put in to be not quick. I do have interest in how creative the escrow structure is or could be.

This is an interesting comment. I did not pay any attention to, or follow XRP / ripple until late 2017, so the period prior to 0.15-0.20 is ancient history to me. When you say "and it wasn't ripple" - who are you referring to? And how does the escrow statement connect to that? (I agree that being 'not quick' was very much part of the plan - I was a little surprised that the re-escrowing was used to top up 1B each month before starting a new one, that leads to a slightly faster release after the initial 55 months are up).

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23 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

But the evidence of Graph 4 in my analysis has to be explained somehow. If we adopt occam's razor then the simplest explanation is that there are other wallets making payments that I have not included in my analysis and there is no 'manipulation' going on.

Yes I agree that on the face of it there does seem to be a reduction.  

But as you say...  that could be just incomplete data.  Or it could be exactly as represented in the graph and they actually have adjusted their daily percentage down either temporarily or ongoing.  

That could be in response to the ‘fake volume’ issue,  or it could be their response to their own growing belief in the limiting effect on price of their sales.  It could be any number of things.  As usual we are on the outside with incomplete data.  

I will say this though...   we wouldn’t even be aware of this without your diligence.  Thanks again. 

With regard to rebalancing... I’ve never really come to an understanding of how the arbitrage would work in early days.

Later on the flow of goods in the opposite direction to corporates can compensate if the corporates use XRP as payment.  But early on?  I too would love to hear from someone who has a handle on it...   maybe @BobWay or @miguel or @JoelKatz ?   (Very optimistic tags there...  but you never know till you ask... :) )

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People act as if XRP is the only crypto with sell pressure

The reality is, every crypto has sell pressure, XRP is the only one where this is documented and verifiable. Does anyone know how many BTC Bitmain unload into the market per month?

XRP is less volatile than most because of more efficient market making. That is all there is to it

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1 minute ago, LilBender said:

XRP is less volatile than most because of more efficient market making. That is all there is to it

Damn! I could have saved myself tons of effort by simply saying this to myself over and over again. Graph 4 is simply the visible evidence of this :(

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