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Price potential of XRP

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Posted (edited)
On 5/23/2019 at 5:13 AM, BarryPotter said:

I have no clue who Susie is??

So technically when all the xrp haters spout off about xrp never going up in price because it has too many coins on circulation....they are right?

I’m confused, not that it’s hard for me (not the most switched on person)

 

 

Susie Crew is a friend of mine.

FYI, she made an infamous video predicting that XRP could (potentially) move to $334 in a single trade. People around here who think they know a lot like to take her analysis apart. @2ndtimearound was making a joke.

The truth is that pre-mined coins have huge supply by their design. This is/was done on purpose to avoid the pitfalls of mining, which has the problem of being completely unsustainable, due to the wasted energy involved in the process. Another unforeseen consequence of mining is that as it has evolved, it has clearly led to centralization, even though the concept of mining was supposed to do just the opposite, to PREVENT centralization.

Most 3rd generation cryptos are "pre-mined". XRP was pre-mined. There are some consequences there too. One consequence  is a price of 30 odd cents at the moment.  Another consequence is that almost all the supply is owned by a very small number of people. 

Rough numbers.....

100B total supply. 

55B held in escrow by Ripple, being sold off monthly in increments

45B non-escrowed, with the stats indicating that more than 75% of it is in just 100 wallets. Some of those few whales have more than one of those giant wallets.

The problem  with market cap as a guideline to price is that when you compare pre-mined coins to mined coins, you're not comparing apples to apples.

Premined coins are very new, and no existing valuation tools...NONE....are known to give a good estimate of their value. People who trot out the "too much supply" argument are both right and wrong, in my view.

Right, because so many people in the financial world, most of whom understand stocks and how supply works in the world of stocks, want to use market cap as their main tool. It amounts to a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

Wrong, because XRP and other pre-mined coins are NOT securities...but rather currencies. In currency trading, most, if not all the major sovereign monies out there have a long history, and a giant liquid market, and their prices are completely driven by market forces and macro forces. It is a market driven by supply and demand.

Some currencies, like the US dollar for instance, have huge supply and yet they strangely command a high price. To explain this takes a book, or at least a long magazine article. But it is the way it is.

By looking primarily at market cap, there is a real risk of an asset like XRP (or any other pre-mined coin) being substantially mispriced. This is the real heart of the arguments made by people like my friend Susie, regardless of whether their analysis might be flawed and subject to criticism. They do see some pertinent information that needs to be considered. 

 

 

 

Edited by dr_ed

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Just now, dr_ed said:

Good for your "elderly" friend....   Sixty-one......I've got ties older than that.

Then I hope you will live to see amazing returns on your investment.

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XRP will hit $0.32 USD again soon....... Seems like a stable coin.   The news alone should have been a driving force but I don't know......

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6 hours ago, Sticky said:

I read all the posts you youngsters post at almost 76. I hope I live long enough to see $1.20 when I will break even!

 

I hope you'll live long enough to see $100.00 and still have a few years to enjoy the money :)

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6 hours ago, Sticky said:

 

I read all the posts you youngsters post at almost 76. I hope I live long enough to see $1.20 when I will break even!

 

I hope you do as well. Would love to see you experience even $10.00 because... at 59 years of age today for myself, I would really be enjoying the future as well. $100.00 would be phenomenal.  A little surprised to see the number of seasoned veterans here on XRP Chat. 

If I knew how to create an age poll I’d put one together in maybe 5-10 year bands and get a feel for how the XRP Chat age group shakes out. That being said, an age poll has likely already been done at some point in the past.

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10 minutes ago, Roaring_Twenties said:

I hope you do as well. Would love to see you experience even $10.00 because... at 59 years of age today for myself, I would really be enjoying the future as well. $100.00 would be phenomenal.  A little surprised to see the number of seasoned veterans here on XRP Chat. 

If I knew how to create an age poll I’d put one together in maybe 5-10 year bands and get a feel for how the XRP Chat age group shakes out. That being said, an age poll has likely already been done at some point in the past.

there was an age poll a few months back

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