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“Past, Present and future of the International Monetary System” - Brad Garlinghouse Presents at Swiss National Bank conference

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1 hour ago, Roaring_Twenties said:

The result was a Japanese revolution in production and a decimation of Swiss watch maker jobs in under a decade

Swatch was the result of this process..

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20 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

Now what happens if,  two years after maxing out on this new system,  there is a crisis of confidence in the XRP asset?

Great observation @Tinyaccount I didn’t draw the “run” conclusion like that. Maybe that’s what he was really asking. 

I suppose a crisis of confidence in any asset could happen regardless of which one is in use.

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7 minutes ago, Wade said:

again, amazing that Ripple was at the table for this public meeting of world financial wizards!!!! certainly speaks Volumes! wonder who invited Ripple cause i don't think they just paid a conference fee to seat in that room or at that table? and if the conference organizers where willing to showcase Ripple in public i suspect some significant discussions took place in private. and these wizards are all about privacy!  

Something else to consider by @GiantGox... Translated: Does ripple introduce 🤔 illegal securities in the top talks on the International monetary system sponsored by the Switzerland Central Bank?

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Roaring_Twenties said:

Yes I do and agree @hallwaymonitor

People are used to a certain way of understanding something and if it doesn’t match what they know to be the best way in their “understanding of it” they reject it.

Keeping on point with the Swiss, an example from the late 60s: the “quartz crisis “.

“In 1962, the Centre Electronique Horloger (CEH), consisting of around 20 Swiss watch manufacturers, was established in Neuchâtel to develop a Swiss-made quartz wristwatch, while simultaneously in Japan, Seiko was also working on an electric watch and developing quartz technology.”  

So the Swiss were early pioneers in quartz watch engineering but by the late 60s early 70s the Japanese were suddenly renowned in quartz watch production.

Why? Were the Japanese smarter? Were they suddenly better at watch manufacturing than the Swiss? No. They weren’t hindered by their paradigms.

To Swiss watchmakers the quartz watch was viewed as nothing more than a novelty. After all it had no spring. It could be cheaply produced and sold. It required no series of precision made gears, in fact no internal moving parts of any kind. How could it be viewed as any good?

Swiss watch makers had enjoyed decades of a prosperous monopoly having 50% of the global market while commanding good money for their quality time pieces. To the Japanese, a quartz watch made perfect sense. Durable, reliable, fast, easy and cheap to produce and sell. Their approach was to fill a massive global need for low cost yet accurate and durable time pieces. They had no paradigm to break. They only saw value. They boldly challenged the experts paradigm.

The result was a Japanese revolution in production and a decimation of Swiss watch maker jobs in under a decade.

While possibly not the best explanation of what happened Wikipedia has an article that’s pretty good:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quartz_crisis

Point being with all this is I think we’re witnessing a like-revolution happening before our eyes. It’s harder for us to see perhaps because of NDAs and the secretive nature of finance but I think the future shows its hand every once in a while. The gentleman’s question reminds me of a like experience in Switzerland where being blinded by ones paradigm can obscure what is presented and end in dire consequences.

The good news is Ripple is steadily converting those who originally didn’t see the value and those that do get often become the best supporters.

Great story.  

Here's a collection of companies that did not respond to going digital (can you add to them?):

Failures

Swiss Watchmakers and Quartz

Kodac and Fuji - Fuji embraced the digital tech by making cheap cameras, Kodac went bust.

Post Office and Email - PO never adopted being involved in the email industry

Barnes and Noble and Amazon

Film streaming and Blockbuster

Print publishers and Kindle?

London Taxis and Uber?

Digital success stories (Can you think of an industry that embraced digital)

Fuji Film and digital cameras

Non Digital

Shipping and air travel - not a single shipping company embraced air travel or created an airline

Digital Start ups that came from nowhere and went mega this would be a long list

 

Edited by Julian_Williams

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Tinyaccount said:

I agree with you guys saying that some in the room would no doubt be locked in old paradigms.

But in this case I don’t think the question is as dumb as it sounded.  These guys are discussing reworking international finance... that’s a big big thing and you really don’t want to get it wrong.  The central part of many of the roles of those in that room is to ensure stability.

In my opinion when he said ‘run in ripple’ he actually meant ‘run on XRP’.  Which is an odd wording but I believe he was trying to say this:

“What happens if we do reorganise world finance and cross-border trade is done largely (or exclusively?) by exchanging XRP programmatically.  Obviously the liquidity of xrp will be huge because of the volumes.  And price will be higher providing the liquidity need.  Now what happens if,  two years after maxing out on this new system,  there is a crisis of confidence in the XRP asset?  For some reason people fear it’s value won’t hold so the sell their holdings.  The price collapses.  A run on ‘ripple’.

That process would dry up the liquidity that the xrp cross border solution requires to operate.  Is there a mechanism of last support like there is in existing financial engineering?”

When put this way it’s a reasonable question to ask, and there will need to be a good answer.  I’m guessing the answer will involve the IMF somehow having custody and capacity with an XRP pool.

I’m just trying to say that assuming he meant Ripple the company, and not ripple (XRP) the asset, is probably incorrect in my opinion.  And if you elaborate his shortcut phrasing,  it does become a serious question. 

 

Wasn't the expert by asking this question expressing the fact that what he misses in RippleNet is some central authority (like central bank of course) that would guarantee some stabilizing monetary policy, e.g., inflation 2% per year? It makes a lot of sense, if you are a central banker. But it's a horrifying idea, if you dream about moons and lambos on XRPChat :)

Edited by Luinorn

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Tinyaccount said:

I agree with you guys saying that some in the room would no doubt be locked in old paradigms.

But in this case I don’t think the question is as dumb as it sounded.  These guys are discussing reworking international finance... that’s a big big thing and you really don’t want to get it wrong.  The central part of many of the roles of those in that room is to ensure stability.

In my opinion when he said ‘run in ripple’ he actually meant ‘run on XRP’.  Which is an odd wording but I believe he was trying to say this:

“What happens if we do reorganise world finance and cross-border trade is done largely (or exclusively?) by exchanging XRP programmatically.  Obviously the liquidity of xrp will be huge because of the volumes.  And price will be higher providing the liquidity need.  Now what happens if,  two years after maxing out on this new system,  there is a crisis of confidence in the XRP asset?  For some reason people fear it’s value won’t hold so the sell their holdings.  The price collapses.  A run on ‘ripple’.

That process would dry up the liquidity that the xrp cross border solution requires to operate.  Is there a mechanism of last support like there is in existing financial engineering?”

When put this way it’s a reasonable question to ask, and there will need to be a good answer.  I’m guessing the answer will involve the IMF somehow having custody and capacity with an XRP pool.

I’m just trying to say that assuming he meant Ripple the company, and not ripple (XRP) the asset, is probably incorrect in my opinion.  And if you elaborate his shortcut phrasing,  it does become a serious question. 

 

I think you're spot and this is why I thought he didn't answer so well.  In the scheme of things it probably isn't a big deal, perhaps just a missed opportunity.

Edited by stickmonster

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12 hours ago, Roaring_Twenties said:

People are used to a certain way of understanding something and if it doesn’t match what they know to be the best way in their “understanding of it” they reject it.

Yes. This is exactly the case when you read or hear people saying "pre-mined coin". The whole word "pre-mining" is biased and frankly quite an ignorant because it assumes the only way cryptocurrency can be created is to mine it.

 

12 hours ago, Roaring_Twenties said:

I think we’re witnessing a like-revolution happening before our eyes. It’s harder for us to see perhaps because of NDAs and the secretive nature of finance but I think the future shows its hand every once in a while.

I think this tweet in below is one of those instances where the future shows its "hand".

 

In below is the Ripple's unofficial game plan: all roads lead to XRP. What comes to RippleNet alone I will expect we will see multiple levels there something like this:

1) xCurrent 3.0: Not any XRP exposure and nostro accounts still in use.

2) xCurrent 4.0: Some nostro accounts have been eliminated due to leveraging (renting) someone else's xRapid. No direct XRP ownership.

3) xCurrent 4.0 + xRapid: Most of the nostro accounts have been eliminated thanks to very own xRapid API. No direct XRP ownership.

4) xCurrent 4.0 + xRapid: The same thing as previously but now direct XRP ownership is possible. By doing this you will eliminate "the first leg" of xRapid because you already hold XRPs.

5) XRP holding: The holy grail where you send directly XRP to pretty much anyone like we do.

 

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13 hours ago, Roaring_Twenties said:

So the Swiss were early pioneers in quartz watch engineering but by the late 60s early 70s the Japanese were suddenly renowned in quartz watch production.

Why? Were the Japanese smarter? Were they suddenly better at watch manufacturing than the Swiss? No. They weren’t hindered by their paradigms.

Someone from Ripple said that the bankers must unlearn first what they know about payments before they can conceive RippleNet or even XRP. One of my favorite quotes comes supposedly from Napoleon:

"You would make a ship sail against the winds and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck? I have no time for such nonsense."

Imagine the shilling/selling process that was required before the steam engine became the standard in ships. If you really think about this you had to be nutso to pull off something like this:

Inventor: "Yo, my name is Brain and I came to present to you my newest innovation: steam engine!

Napoleon: Whatever. How it works?

Inventor: Easy! Let's just put bonfire under your wooden and very expensive sail ship in the middle of an ocean and then you can sail faster.

Napoleon: <read the quote the above again>

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

Post Office and Email - PO never adopted being involved in the email industry

what? its a postal system aint it … email don't deliver my parcels

 

12 hours ago, ADingoAteMyXRP said:

there’s a risk that the price of XRP could suddenly crash.

 

 same could be said for carrying cash - the greeks have a recent memory along with the Venezuelans
 

Edited by fiik

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