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Interesting Capstone Study XRP Pricing as Correlated to Article Sentiment Analysis

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Posted (edited)

Thought this would be an interesting opinion to contribute to the role of FUD and price correlation from a data science perspective:

https://github.com/Mooseburger1/Springboard-Data-Science-Immersive/blob/master/Capstone 1 Project/Report/Capstone 1 Report.pdf

Edited by jag216
speeling

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Bloomberg, who often times writes anti-crypto pieces, discussed something similar in an article today.  I actually enjoy reading their articles because their journalists (and there appear to be several) come across so bitter at times it is comical.  :)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-13/bitcoin-s-bulls-are-revving-up-the-lamborghinis-again

Quote

Regaining control of the narrative on price today is critical to the price of Bitcoin tomorrow. This is an asset with no cash flows backing it and extremely limited real-world application, and one that is uncorrelated to financial markets. As such, it is driven by the madness of crowds, not fundamental analysis. A study by Yale economists last August found that gains beget gains: A one-standard-deviation increase in the current day’s Bitcoin return predicts a 0.33% increase in the next day’s. And getting people talking on the internet helps enormously. A one-standard-deviation increase in the Twitter post count for the word “Bitcoin” yields a 2.5% increase in week-ahead Bitcoin returns.

As you’d expect, bad news has the opposite effect. The Yale study constructed a ratio between Google searches for the phrase “Bitcoin hack” and searches for the word “Bitcoin,” and showed that a one-standard-deviation increase of the ratio led to a 2.75% decrease in Bitcoin returns the following week. Considering the string of grim headlines recently, from the hack at the Binance exchange to allegations of an $850 million cover-up at Tether and Bitfinex (which said the the assertions were false), the bulls have even more reason to shout louder on Twitter to dominate the conversation.

 

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Posted (edited)

@XRPboi I've expected and continue to expect the "then investors pivoted to other coins such as XRP and ETH" trend for some time. "Utility" will be the "safty net".

Social Physics is also of a similar approach. Bitcoin's price seems to rise exponentially, not because of computing power increases, but rather because ideas (like bitcoin) spread exponentially through the human network once they take root.

This is the same reasoning behind the fundmental valuations of what I call "network companies" growing exponentially also, uber/fbook/goog/ripple...etc

 

Edited by KarmaCoverage

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Is anyone actually surprised by this?  I am incredibly confused by why anyone who is actually looking at crypto as an investment would be so excited about yesterday/todays runup in price.

What has changed in the last two weeks that warrants this rise in price?  Absolutely nothing is the answer, this is purely FOMO.  The day the little yellow line on Galgitron's graph increases is the day I will actually get excited.  There is currently one use case for Cryptocurrency, payments for cross-border remittances.  This market will comeback down when people are paying $80 in miner's fees to move $500 in bitcoin and those transfers are taking 24+ hours. 

This pump is a sham, if you believe in the vision of IoV and XRP's roll then nothing matters between now and utility.

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51 minutes ago, Bettergoham said:

This pump is a sham, if you believe in the vision of IoV and XRP's roll then nothing matters between now and utility.

Have a hard time believing in this pump.  Extremely fishy that this pump is coinciding with the Binance hack and Tether/Bitfinex fiasco.

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16 minutes ago, Archive said:

Have a hard time believing in this pump.  Extremely fishy that this pump is coinciding with the Binance hack and Tether/Bitfinex fiasco.

but then there's bakkt and fidelity and the btc halvening next year.

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9 minutes ago, invest2lose said:

but then there's bakkt and fidelity and the btc halvening next year.

Yep, the Bakkt announcement and Fidelity are both driving this somewhat! But even if they weren't I could still see a pump like this occurring. The market is like a giant wave pool driven by social proof. Sometimes it's down, sometimes it's up... it's more likely to change than remain stable.

TA pretends to turn this into a science, but TA is glorified palm-reading. If it worked, hedge funds would be making 5 percent a day. Maybe at some machine-level of expertise there's a few basis points of preference you could track through past behavior, but it's not going to be visible in a graph.

Honestly... this pump is nothing compared to the utility case. You have to remember, any money coming into crypto right now is play money for companies like Fidelity, even if it drives market change. Imagine what happens when core services pass through crypto...

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3 hours ago, Bettergoham said:

Is anyone actually surprised by this?  I am incredibly confused by why anyone who is actually looking at crypto as an investment would be so excited about yesterday/todays runup in price.

What has changed in the last two weeks that warrants this rise in price?  Absolutely nothing is the answer, this is purely FOMO.  The day the little yellow line on Galgitron's graph increases is the day I will actually get excited.  There is currently one use case for Cryptocurrency, payments for cross-border remittances.  This market will comeback down when people are paying $80 in miner's fees to move $500 in bitcoin and those transfers are taking 24+ hours. 

This pump is a sham, if you believe in the vision of IoV and XRP's roll then nothing matters between now and utility.

I'm in this space to make money. And I missed out on life changing money in 2017, despite "utility" not existing in 2017. 

This being said, I'll welcome another run like 2017/2018, whether it is "utility driven" or not. Ripple will flip their switches when they are ready. But I'd love to profit sooner if possible 

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13 hours ago, XRPboi said:

I'm in this space to make money. And I missed out on life changing money in 2017, despite "utility" not existing in 2017. 

This being said, I'll welcome another run like 2017/2018, whether it is "utility driven" or not. Ripple will flip their switches when they are ready. But I'd love to profit sooner if possible 

The risk you take is being out when the switch is flipped.

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2 hours ago, cryptoxrp said:

Tnx for the link @cmbartley Very much appreciated!

No prob, the XRP alarm was going off the past two days prior to the XRP pump. At least for XRP it seems to have had some predictive validity but you have to respond pretty quickly.

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