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2ndtimearound

17th June 2023: my open letter to XRP investors

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1 hour ago, 2ndtimearound said:

Once again people are freaking out because XRP has dropped below the $80 support level.  $70 is on the cards in the next few days...and I can only imagine the retail panic if and when we get to that price.  Yes, we hit $100 - briefly.  We all knew sell orders would kick in and we'd come tumbling back down.  We'd been on an incredible run, and we are due a massive correction.  It'll happen, people will panic, and I think a year long bear market COULD be on the cards.  Don't shoot the messenger, just my opinion. 

Now I've said that - just breathe in, breathe out.  And let me give newer investors a quick history lesson and overview of the last 4 years, and encouraging words.   I'll go over some technicals too.  Apologies if you already know this, but it's all relevant.

The last proper bear market was in 2018 / early 2019.  Read that again.  Fairly much we've been in a 4 year bull market (we used to call these "runs" as they were so short!). We've had a few bear "seasons" since then, but nothing decent.  We've been spoiled rotten.  Ever since the SEC gave XRP the green light in September 2019, it's been fireworks ever since.  What followed was a cascade of events that were clearly just waiting for the SEC to drop the flag.  The biggest reveal was xPool.  This blew away the idea that public exchanges would be used for xRapid liquidity, and that banks wouldn't hold XRP.    Instead, banks bought up XRP - causing its price to spike up to just under $10 by December 2019 (from a low of 50 cents in September 2019!).  Banks used their XRP with a non-public exchange known as xPool.  Central banks provided xPool with fiat liquidity.  Banks could trade in and out of this single exchange - facilitating cross-border payments.  Though non-public, xPool was fully transparent.  Every bundled transaction was publicly visible.  Transactions were bundled via Cobalt, with each bundle sent as a single transaction via the XRPL - where each bundle was then unpacked on private ledgers to maintain privacy for bank's customers.   The transparency of xPool meant that accounting firms could audit everything with certainty (with access to each bank's private ledger too), and that governments had full transparency themselves over every single international payment made.  A perfect storm for XRP was brewing.

In fact, the demand for XRP became so great - from banks, central banks, institutional investors, retail investors - that XRP quickly overtook BTC and ETH in a huge wave of speculation that saw the space introduce the "XRP dominance" metric....which has never dipped below 50% since late 2019 (as an aside I met someone yesterday who flat-out didn't believe me that we used to have a "BTC dominance" metric!).  XRP's price was propelled by one good news story after another.  The whales who got in under $1 were waiting for a correction that never came.  And so the price just kept climbing.

History lesson over. 

I say all of this because even though XRP is due a big correction, the demand for XRP is only getting started.  Microtransactions is where XRP's new wave of demand will come from.  Coil is now 5 years old and since its partnership with Google - it's been the number one monetising platform for publishers.  Coil has proven that microtransactions have a solid future.  Next up will be M2M microtransactions on the ILP which will explode volume by at least x1000 what it is now.  You read that right.  Furthermore, STOs will finally be bridged via XRP so you can use your STOs to pay for anything - soon you'll be buying your happy meal with your STOs.  Not only that, but the fast food restaurant will reward your loyalty by loading up your wallet with some of their own STOs.  As mentioned, every transaction bridged by XRP.

It's all coming - be prepared for a $1000 XRP in 2026 or so, with a nice long ride up to that price (I might take a quiet moment of reflection when we pass the $589 mark, more experienced readers will know what - or who - I'm referring to here).  However, before we see those numbers, I'm sure we're going to revisit a low of $50, so hold on to your hats and do not sell.   There's a decent number of whales who got in under $1 and have been waiting for this correction to sell into.  Let them sell, let them enjoy their gains. Take a breather, and get ready for the REAL ride. 

I love this! 

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Posted (edited)

I like your explanation of XPool's function.

$10 this year and I will be beginning to relax about my debts   At 50 dollars I will be so well off that the rest of my life will be one long holiday.  I do not find your projections unreasonable, the unreasonable bit is to try to predict the time line about when it will burst.  No one can predict the time line, one day we will wake up and discover it has started.  I hope it happens this year. 

What I would add is that in 2020 (accepting your time line) XRP became the world's first global investment frenzy.  By that I mean that XRP became a must-have investment plan for ordinary people in all sorts of countries; from the very poor in places like India, Mexico and the Philippines to the very rich in Europe, Japan and America. XRP, by its nature, knows no currency boundaries and is purchasable on peoples mobiles anywhere (no need for stock-markets or stock brokers).  What happened with XRP in Korea will happen on a much larger scale in many other countries not usually factored in the stock market forecasts. So I think the investment will be explosive on a global scale never seen before.

Edited by Julian_Williams

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2 hours ago, 2ndtimearound said:

However, before we see those numbers, I'm sure we're going to revisit a low of $50, so hold on to your hats and do not sell

Great read, I read back on this forum to those days back in 2019... Those were some lucky sons of... I for one hope it drops back to $ 50,00 or lower, so I can stack up some more of those precious zerps!! Haven't reached my goal of 100XRP yet!

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Note to self: Don’t start reading this before you’ve had at least your first cup of coffee. Talk about confused. I rubbed my eyes and started over a couple times and was really questioning how long I had slept. Then I reread the the title...

Two cups later...love it. A great point of view!

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2 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

XRP, by its nature, knows no currency boundaries and is purchasable on peoples mobiles anywhere

True, but how many consumers want their purchases visible to the whole world? Perhaps in Norway, where tax bills are already public knowledge, consumers would be OK with it; but in less equal societies, who wants their landlord watching their personal finances? This is why I agree with Ripple's view that XRP is at its most useful in institution-to-institution transfers, where a transparent ledger is a regulatory virtue.

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2 hours ago, tev said:

True, but how many consumers want their purchases visible to the whole world? Perhaps in Norway, where tax bills are already public knowledge, consumers would be OK with it; but in less equal societies, who wants their landlord watching their personal finances? This is why I agree with Ripple's view that XRP is at its most useful in institution-to-institution transfers, where a transparent ledger is a regulatory virtue.

I think XRP is disruptive of stockbroking as well as banking and retail payments.   I think when people understand the concept and see the value of the XRP tokens rising they will open XRP savings/investment accounts Iike we do) - rather than use it as a currency. 

But in answer to your point M-peso has been very successful in Kenya. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

But in answer to your point M-peso has been very successful in Kenya. 

Thanks, I must look into Mpesa. Are you sure Mpesa allows not-necessarily-trusted parties to view your balance though? I would be concerned about my safety if I were using a service that works that way, but MPesa has high uptake among cash users who are presumably (of necessity) more security-conscious than I am.

Edit: You mention the potential impact of the XRPL on stockbroking, and this is indeed an interesting area. Cryptographic signatures make a lot of sense as a means of proving ownership of a stake in a company, but they're not currently used for this purpose. Since the XRPL inherited RipplePay's IOU functionality and augmented it with cryptographic signatures plus decentralization, it will be interesting to see if this slightly neglected IOU functionality is ever put to work tracking share ownership — but there are a lot of prejudices and vested interests to overcome first.

Edited by Guest

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2 hours ago, tev said:

Thanks, I must look into Mpesa. Are you sure Mpesa allows not-necessarily-trusted parties to view your balance though? I would be concerned about my safety if I were using a service that works that way, but MPesa has high uptake among cash users who are presumably (of necessity) more security-conscious than I am.

Edit: You mention the potential impact of the XRPL on stockbroking, and this is indeed an interesting area. Cryptographic signatures make a lot of sense as a means of proving ownership of a stake in a company, but they're not currently used for this purpose. Since the XRPL inherited RipplePay's IOU functionality and augmented it with cryptographic signatures plus decentralization, it will be interesting to see if this slightly neglected IOU functionality is ever put to work tracking share ownership — but there are a lot of prejudices and vested interests to overcome first.

I take your point about M Pesa not being open to public scrutiny.  Is every micro transaction on the XRP ledger going to be trackable?  Wow that will be a lot of data but I suppose with modern tech it can be trawled and looked at.  Not sure how many people will be put off by a fear of someone knowing how much petrol they bought or when they visited the supermarket.

About disruption of stock brokerages.  I just think with the IoV everything financial will become as easy as having an online bank account and buying and selling stock will become something you do on your mobile. It is just my gut feeling

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28 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

buying and selling stock will become something you do on your mobile

Mervyn King, writing from the Olympian detachment of retirement, has posited that we may one day do exactly that, thus making personal money obsolete. His scenario has you paying for your espresso by selling shares from your mobile while you're standing at the counter of the coffee shop. He didn't specifically suggest that the XRPL should be part of the plumbing in this brave new world, but perhaps he's thinking along the same lines as you.

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