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Thinking of selling XRP for BTC


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1 hour ago, richxrp said:

It seems to me that XRP price isn't being driven by speculation so much as being maintained at a level price by increasing supply balanced equally by increasing demand.. i.e. threading water at the moment. Once increased supply is exhausted (i.e. all XRP is distributed) and demand maintains the same increasing rate due to usage, price will need to rise.  Unfortunately for those of us who want to get rich real quick, that isn't going to happen overnight.. At current rate of distribution, all XRP will be distributed in  about 15 years..

 

xrp-history.jpg

I was wondering. My understanding is that Jed McCaleb is now (as of February) able to sell 1% of the daily total trading volume of XRP  ( 30 M XRP roughly, based on the current $1B daily volume) each and every DAY.  Anybody have a handle on whether he is a seller at these prices?  30M/day would be a lot of supply to absorb right now, given where we are. I wonder how much that could be weighing on price.

Edited by dr_ed
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3 hours ago, ObeyTheWafflehouse said:

@tony71 Are you investing or are you trading? From what I am seeing happening these past few weeks, XRP seems to be almost trading independent from BTC, which is what we all cried for this past year. 

If you are investing, what is something that BTC can do better than XRP? First to market advantage? Better liquidity? Better transaction times? 

If you are seriously doubting XRP as an investment, I strongly suggest taking a step back from the cryptomarkets, no social media, turning off your phone, and take some time to yourself (possibly a week or more). 

Rome was not built in a day, but became one of the most dominating societies the world has ever seen.  

I’m investing long term but I figure short term why not make some $$$ with BTC.  Will sell 40% of my XRP and trade BTC.   I know it’s risky with XRP suddenly mooning.   You are right that this is definitely long term investment. 

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So apparently Jed hasn't sold since the beginning of the year. I actually used the account explorer to look at the four accounts he is known to have (and that have been under the control of Ripple, from what I gather.) That's around 4.7 billion XRP that isn't getting into the market right now, that could be. Now I wonder if it's because he has the expectation that price is headed up. 

Because otherwise I can't see his motivation not to sell out. Why wouldn't he?

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On 4/22/2019 at 1:52 PM, tony71 said:

And then buy back XRP next year. BTC will be leading the market and will XRP go with it but I don't see it getting even close to $1.

Now on the other hand, I think mid year 2021 we may start seeing XRP move.

We will see.  BTC needs to convincingly breach above 6k, otherwise we don’t have a downtrend reversal.  I have been assessing my own hold of XRP and fortunately moved out some of my hold into ADA in Jan.  Now I can buy back more XRP which is great (same idea).  

But keep in mind BTC is facing a large wall of resistance in the short term.....at least on the BTC/USD comparative.  On BTC/XRP you are selling XRP which may be a good call since the XRP/BTC ratio is dropping like a rock but that comparative could rebound quickly to the upside and your XRP would buy more BTC in the future.

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If you are a true SHTF believer, you've got to look to headlines and consider currency events and war events globally. We are always riding seesaws when we trade, and when you consider how rare stability is, and the heavy hands required, you can assume manipulation in these markets 90% of the time while volumes and overall market cap is this low.

The parabolic shifts that we crave are caused by sharp external forces. Heavy doses of greed or fear or both.

I don't know why people ignore the potential social causes behind the massive movement to crypto from South Korea during the last bull cycle - check the headlines, because folks were scared to death of war on the peninsula and I think a lot of folks were worried about a currency event being needed to pay for war and/or needing a way to quickly get funds out of local fiat if people needed to leave the country.

Here we are again with testing in NK engaged.

There is some indication of international unwinding of us debt, while also a bit of positive movement into t-bills on the us side. This could contribute to a dollar flush event and I have plenty of reason to speculate that there will eventually be a flippening between crypto and national bonds. This is what I think the global banking system is gearing up for, and I would be hesitant to cash out too early into fiat prior to knowing how much government debt is being unloaded. It would be a convenient transfer of wealth to power if, in a coordinated effort, a bull run was triggered with bond revenues sold at secret auction and fueled by government crypto purchases - leaving us as millionaires in fiat and triggering hyperinflation while governments hold all the digital assets. What a purge of hypocrisy in crypto that would be!

Just a reminder that price in fiat is not what the cryptocurrency ethos is all about. Price and value are not the same. I don't think the social and political value of digital asset networks should be understated.

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On 4/22/2019 at 4:52 PM, tony71 said:

And then buy back XRP next year. BTC will be leading the market and will XRP go with it but I don't see it getting even close to $1.

Now on the other hand, I think mid year 2021 we may start seeing XRP move.

its like this.. do whatever you think is best for your specific situation. yes, it works from time to time, but for a very small percentage of individuals. when people see the price of their investment drop, its very normal for new investors to sell in fear (they think its an educated decision) and then buy another investment.

what happens is, they keep doing this. buying, selling, buying, selling... it creates a vicious cycle of not knowing when to stop and each time, they 'hope' their decision was the right one.

all of this can be avoided by simply holding. XRPs price is down, yes. but this is an investment. professional investors make the big bucks because they hold long term. 

the same thing happened in 2017 when the price dropped from .40 to .14. many people in here sold thinking they would buy back in lower, only to see the price jump to $3.30 a few weeks later.

summary:

1. people who dont know what theyre doing typically invest based on price.

2. seasoned investors base on fundamentals. notice you said, "I think mid year 2021 we may start seeing XRP move." this is a decision based on the hope that the price will go up.

Edited by XRPto50dollars
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52 minutes ago, jag216 said:

If you are a true SHTF believer, you've got to look to headlines and consider currency events and war events globally. We are always riding seesaws when we trade, and when you consider how rare stability is, and the heavy hands required, you can assume manipulation in these markets 90% of the time while volumes and overall market cap is this low.

The parabolic shifts that we crave are caused by sharp external forces. Heavy doses of greed or fear or both.

I don't know why people ignore the potential social causes behind the massive movement to crypto from South Korea during the last bull cycle - check the headlines, because folks were scared to death of war on the peninsula and I think a lot of folks were worried about a currency event being needed to pay for war and/or needing a way to quickly get funds out of local fiat if people needed to leave the country.

Here we are again with testing in NK engaged.

There is some indication of international unwinding of us debt, while also a bit of positive movement into t-bills on the us side. This could contribute to a dollar flush event and I have plenty of reason to speculate that there will eventually be a flippening between crypto and national bonds. This is what I think the global banking system is gearing up for, and I would be hesitant to cash out too early into fiat prior to knowing how much government debt is being unloaded. It would be a convenient transfer of wealth to power if, in a coordinated effort, a bull run was triggered with bond revenues sold at secret auction and fueled by government crypto purchases - leaving us as millionaires in fiat and triggering hyperinflation while governments hold all the digital assets. What a purge of hypocrisy in crypto that would be!

Just a reminder that price in fiat is not what the cryptocurrency ethos is all about. Price and value are not the same. I don't think the social and political value of digital asset networks should be understated.

As long as fiat debts can be paid in fiat dollars, I have a use for fiat. I won't get too excited about going all crypto all the time until that is no longer my reality.

But generally speaking, if you are a SHTF believer of any stripe, you know that most of your net worth should be held in tangible assets. Both fiat and cryptos are somewhat dependent on BAU. Everything money, centralized or decentralized, is digital. The long term future of digital technology is totally energy dependent. That means it's fragile technology. I know it''s possible to have a crypto with no internet, but I'm guessing it won't work out that well, if and when we don't have connectivity.

Holding too much fiat cash has never been a big problem for me anyway. But if the choice is something like Turkish Lira vs. Bitcoin, gimme Bitcoin. 

Interesting point about the drivers of big crypto moves and currency moves. I'm a believer in the Dollar Milkshake theory, at the moment.  https://youtu.be/vDr3lRZ01Zo

 

 

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15 minutes ago, XRPto50dollars said:

its like this.. do whatever you think is best for your specific situation. yes, it works from time to time, but for a very small percentage of individuals. when people see the price of their investment drop, its very normal for new investors to sell in fear (they think its an educated decision) and then buy another investment.

what happens is, they keep doing this. buying, selling, buying, selling... it creates a vicious cycle of not knowing when to stop and each time, they 'hope' their decision was the right one.

all of this can be avoided by simply holding. XRPs price is down, yes. but this is an investment. professional investors make the big bucks because they hold long term. 

the same thing happened in 2017 when the price dropped from .40 to .14. many people in here sold thinking they would buy back in lower, only to see the price jump to $3.30 a few weeks later.

summary:

1. people who dont know what theyre doing typically invest based on price.

2. seasoned investors base on fundamentals. notice you said, "I think mid year 2021 we may start seeing XRP move." this is a decision based on the hope that the price will go up.

Number one doesn't hold water in this case. You can know exactly what you're doing and still question the best way to balance a crypto portfolio. I'd say a more common mistake I see with XRP investors is that they bet the farm on a single asset, based on it's technological superiority, while ignoring the obvious issues with adoption and the difficulty in putting any kind of value on pre-mined coins with larger total supplies.

Seasoned investors these days understand that markets are momentum driven, and that technicals cannot be ignored. The old argument that fundamentals trump technicals over the long run is not nearly as persuasive now as it was in 1980.

It ALL matters. Use all the information.

But know yourself.

I know that it's much easier for ME personally  to ride a down trend over the short term, than its likely to be for me to come up with the cash to buy back my XRP the day the coin bottoms, even if I could call it, which I can't. Better to just buy it and forget it. It's easier on my psyche. I'm a human, not an algorithm. I might be tempted to spend the money on hookers and blow.

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30 minutes ago, dr_ed said:

Number one doesn't hold water in this case. You can know exactly what you're doing and still question the best way to balance a crypto portfolio. I'd say a more common mistake I see with XRP investors is that they bet the farm on a single asset, based on it's technological superiority, while ignoring the obvious issues with adoption and the difficulty in putting any kind of value on pre-mined coins with larger total supplies.

im keeping it simple. most people who dont know what theyre doing not only invest based on price alone, but only buy as the price drops. this in turn causes many want-to-be investors to hold millions of worthless shares, crypto, etc

Ripple's fundamentals are sound. the current price has nothing to do with it on account that the crypto market is unstable and manipulated. 

Edited by XRPto50dollars
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I have to admit, these prolonged periods of xrp dropping against btc always leave me confused.  Other than being a gateway to other cryptos, what drives people to buy btc?  Surely crypto has been out long enough that people in the market don't think it's the only coin to hold right?  This is why I can't do short term trading.  xrp losing to btc doesn't make any fundamental sense to me.

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49 minutes ago, Kalarie said:

I have to admit, these prolonged periods of xrp dropping against btc always leave me confused.  Other than being a gateway to other cryptos, what drives people to buy btc?  Surely crypto has been out long enough that people in the market don't think it's the only coin to hold right?  This is why I can't do short term trading.  xrp losing to btc doesn't make any fundamental sense to me.

Many exchanges, you have to buy BTC to sell BTC to buy other coins. We need BTC out of the equation. Not sure how to do that. How can you buy XRP on its own? 

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3 hours ago, XRPto50dollars said:

Ripple's fundamentals are sound

 

1 hour ago, Kalarie said:

xrp losing to btc doesn't make any fundamental sense to me.

Generally when I see people posting about fundamentals in crypto, it's a sign that they talking out their ass.

In stocks fundamental analysis is based on revenues, profits, growth, competitors and debts.  It's almost impossible to do fundamental analysis on cryptos based on those aspects.  In cryptos the closest thing to fundamental analysis is network  growth and utility.  But even that is hard to measure because Ripple consistently hypes up pilot programs.

 

 

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