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Thinking of selling XRP for BTC


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4 hours ago, automatic said:

First and foremost - I think that the current btc price climb is nothing more than filthy price manipulation.  Now that I got that off my chest - 

I think that you guys are too close to crypto to look at this from the perspective of a clueless retail investor and/or may be thinking a bit too small.  The average person does not follow the news nor do they follow BTC prices;  to them BTC at 3k or BTC at 9k is still BTC in single digits.   Get BTC into double digits, and they slowly start paying attention.

The average casual crypto investor also got badly burned in the 2018 crash.  In order to get them to jump back in, BTC price must be high enough to erase their previous pain, revalidate their old notions of BTC growth, and make them feel like a dummy for selling during the 2018 crash.

30k.  This is the magic number where BTC is in double digits, BTC is no longer "down", and everyone not in BTC is a complete dmbass.  Retail FOMO starts at 30k and ends between 80-100k  (or when FinCEN / NYAG bust finex and Tether - whichever comes first).

Optimal manipulation sequence of events as I see it:

- Dump everything and push btc up (now)

- Break BTC through 7k.   Analysts collectively j1zz their pants while confirming the trend reversal.

- Break into double digits.  News coverage picks up, people start noticing.  To regular people BTC is however still "down".

- Break ATH and advance into 30s.  Self-fulfilling TA/BTC prophesy.  New batch of Lambos.  I'm smarter than you because I got into BTC at 15k.  Broad media coverage.  New money jumping in.

- Parabolic run to 80s.   Dump the whole thing on (unsuspecting?) masses and run.

Insert some periodic corrections to dump profits into alts just for good measure and to increase possible FOMO participation.   Take those profits and use them to pump BTC as per above.

Things are moving fast with NYAG case in the works;  I'd say this whole scenario plays out before the end of the year, or possibly inside of six months.  The short time window may not offer enough time for retail investors (who as mentioned don't really pay attention) to notice that BTC is going up and join the FOMO, which may prevent the full scenario from unfolding.   However, if the whole legal drama can be drug out until end of year then the stage should be all set for another (completely natural and not at all manipulated) BTC ATH.

I pretty much agree but it may take other 2 years. BTC will go up to 50-80k and crash down to 10k.

I expect BTC to close in the 8-9k range this year. 

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1 hour ago, 2ndtimearound said:

You're clearly one of the 5%.  Well done, but I think you should have a disclaimer when you promote day trading strategies.

I appreciate the kind word, and I am honored. But, the philosophy of anti-DCA is regardless of the time frame I trade. If I put money and it works in my favor, I will add.  I trade value, not price. If a trader does not know the difference between the two, he/she will be a victim of FOMO or DAC. Either one does not work, and will not work. 

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It isn't going to 80-100k by end of year. It'll take another few years at least for that to happen. Took 3 years last time and if its going to happen like that again, it'll take another two from here. I do think Alts will recover when Bitcoin gets back up to 8 or 10k though.

Edited by Archbob
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1 hour ago, Spekul8 said:

I appreciate the kind word, and I am honored. But, the philosophy of anti-DCA is regardless of the time frame I trade. If I put money and it works in my favor, I will add.  I trade value, not price. If a trader does not know the difference between the two, he/she will be a victim of FOMO or DAC. Either one does not work, and will not work. 

Well, it's your job, right? What I do, 99%+ of the population can't do - and I guess it's true for most skilled work.  All I'm trying to do is distinguish between what is a skilled job (day trading) and retail investing/speculating.  These two are not the same thing.  You seem to be dismissing the latter, as if day trading is the only way to make money from crypto (not sure what you meant by "DAC" but I assume you meant "DCA").  In fact, I'm guessing bad day traders paid a large proportion of my crypto profits last year.

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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Wanted to buy a little something on the weakness, decided to go with LTC for now. BTC is getting overstretched imho, and BNB didn't hit the downside target I was hoping for. Most importantly, I am not selling XRP or any alt coins on weakness. I might add some ADA here, at least a little. All full up on XRP and steady as she goes. 

Even though I don't trade, I do try to accumulate the coins on my buy list when they're on sale. 

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I'm a firm believer in double-bottoms as well, but given everything that is going on I suspect that a repeat of July-December 2013 price action is more likely.

That would just be totally fine with me. I would love to take some money off the table in early 2020.

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On 4/22/2019 at 4:52 PM, tony71 said:

And then buy back XRP next year. BTC will be leading the market and will XRP go with it but I don't see it getting even close to $1.

Now on the other hand, I think mid year 2021 we may start seeing XRP move.

If 2019 is like 2015 then 2021 will be like 2017 meaning XRP won't do anything from 2019 to early 2021.  That is if history plays out but quite a few things are different now.  But your move is looking better all the time.   

Edited by fatlever
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My thoughts about xrp is ripple hold to much xrp token on escrow. And they could manipulated the market and the price. This year is not xrp time . I think this year is btc time . Maybe next year 2020 is xrp time. Many  Banks are not trust ripple xrp . Only my thinking if false please correct me thanks all. Nice weeekend 

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2 minutes ago, sophievu said:

My thoughts about xrp is ripple hold to much xrp token on escrow. And they could manipulated the market and the price. This year is not xrp time . I think this year is btc time . Maybe next year 2020 is xrp time. Many  Banks are not trust ripple xrp . Only my thinking if false please correct me thanks all. Nice weeekend 

First, the higher the escrow the better for XRP price, imho. That's coin held OUT of circulation. It's the coin they're selling into the market that might be holding price down, but I remain unconvinced. They are selling more than I had thought, by maybe 2X. I am not sure that is enough to hold the price down, but maybe. A lot of people seem to think so.

Banks do have some trust  issues, mainly around the regulatory concerns. They are also just a very slow group to embrace new tech. They don't care how bad their existing settlement system is, as long as they can get away with passing the costs on to the consumer, and they IF don't lose the business to some new system. This is what will force adoption.

You might well be right on your take on timing....but nobody knows, right? It could move a lot in a hurry. If adoption was the only thing driving price, it might be even longer......but I doubt we have to wait quite that long...there are other reasons price could go up.

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4 hours ago, sophievu said:

My thoughts about xrp is ripple hold to much xrp token on escrow. And they could manipulated the market and the price. This year is not xrp time . I think this year is btc time . Maybe next year 2020 is xrp time. Many  Banks are not trust ripple xrp . Only my thinking if false please correct me thanks all. Nice weeekend 

IMO, if you do not have successful day trading skills (this eliminates 95% of people who ACTUALLY attempt day trading) ... then be prepared to wait a long time to take profits.  It doesn't mean you WILL wait a long time to take profits, but be prepared for that.  If you time the market by guessing, it's as good as straight-up gambling.  I believe fundamentals will show the winners in the longer term, and a lack of fundamentals will kill off 98%+ of tokens out there.  That strategy requires patience though.

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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4 hours ago, dr_ed said:

Banks do have some trust  issues, mainly around the regulatory concerns. They are also just a very slow group to embrace new tech. They don't care how bad their existing settlement system is, as long as they can get away with passing the costs on to the consumer, and they IF don't lose the business to some new system. This is what will force adoption.

This bears repeating in bold letters ;) 

My guess is the banks are already beginning to lose business to better systems, and what a great opportunity for enterprise in implementing these new, much better systems.

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18 hours ago, 2ndtimearound said:

I'm trying to do is distinguish between what is a skilled job (day trading) and retail investing/speculating.  These two are not the same thing.  You seem to be dismissing the latter, as if day trading is the only way to make money from crypto (not sure what you meant by "DAC" but I assume you meant "DCA").

 

Whether you are day trading which I do, and regretfully I became skilled at it, or whether you are investing, both require levels of discipline but from different angles.  If you followed any of my threads or comments, you see that I made my money from holding and selling. Day trading had come into the picture before we went to a range period.  

I am not dismissing ant "arguments" because I did not start any about investing versus day trading.  What people do here is the HIGHEST form of gambling, not investing.   People justify their holding on fundamental bias and confirmation bias.  They use forward-looking projections based on time to explain their actions. These are the typical psychological behavior of the crowds when a short term gamble does not work out. If the exchange just for one day mispriced XRP and placed it at $10, you would see a mass exit like no other. At that point, all theories of pricing would go out the window. Sadly, most bought last time when it exploded no understanding that algo pricing by the changes, which was fake, cause an insane rise.  I

Finally, there is no relationship between the XRP price and Ripple Net (yet).  We read about Ripple success and puzzled why XRP does not go up. This is because it's a model that is mathematical, and not straight forward.  Yes, I meant DCA which  I am dead against, and again, I don't care whether you are day trading, swing trade, long term hold, or want to give your great grandkids XRP, never ever add to losing positions.  

 

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Whether you are day trading which I do, and regretfully I became skilled at it, or whether you are investing

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What people do here is the HIGHEST form of gambling, not investing. People justify their holding on fundamental bias and confirmation bias.  They use forward-looking projections based on time to explain their actions.

You seem to be holding two positions here - on the one hand you say longer term holding (retail investing's basic strategy) is in fact - investing (that requires a level of discipline but from a different angle to day trading - to paraphrase you)  but then say "what people do here is the HIGHEST form of gambling, not investing" - but many like myself here are following a very basic principle of long term holding. 

I think it's an extreme position to take when you dismiss a basic strategy of DCA that's well established in many asset classes, including crypto.  DCA has been around as long as investing has.  It's part of the fundamental idea that we can't time the market, BUT time in the market allows us to capitalise when our asset price rises above our DCA value...and often those days are very few and far between - usually with any market, it's a handful of days a year that truly dictate your asset's value.  The "skills" here for long term holders is : patience, ignore fear, ignore greed, take profits regularly when they are there.  Of course, this assumes much research has been taken out on the assets you hold in the first place.  

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These are the typical psychological behavior of the crowds when a short term gamble does not work out.

I venture that most here are scaling in positions with weekly or monthly buys (we hear this a lot here) - basically - stacking.  How is DCA a "short term gamble"? It is not.  It's a long-term strategy.  Your comment here suggest people buy XRP expecting it to go up very quickly after their purchase (the reason they bought it), then it doesn't go up - so they make up another excuse why they bought it.  We've been in a 16 month bear market, I don't think people who bought in the last 3 months were expecting some quick rebound. 

Yes, psychology DOES play a huge a part in any market. A market is an eco-system where many different strategies can be profitable, but it comes down to the individual's research abilities and tolerance of fear and greed. Someone can have a supposed "perfect strategy", but psychologically they are unprepared, so they over-trade/revenge trade/chase  losses, or hold on too long to profits (greed).  That's not the strategy's "fault", but the emotions of the investor. 

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Yes, I meant DCA which  I am dead against, and again, I don't care whether you are day trading, swing trade, long term hold, or want to give your great grandkids XRP, never ever add to losing positions.  

I get that you're against DCA.  That's been clear for some time.  However, it doesn't mean it isn't a profitable strategy for many investors, and has been as long as humans have traded assets that have fluctuating values.  Much has been written in favour of a DCA strategy across many asset classes - it has many proponents no matter how much you don't like it personally.

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I’m always surprised at how people state ‘rules of thumb’ as though they are laws of physics.  Never add to a losing position.  Always take profit when it’s on the table.   Cut your losses when things are going down.  Buy when the streets are bathed in blood.  The market is always right.

 

All of those (and their many compatriots) might be good rules of thumb in various circumstances,  but they often are contradictory.  The application and timing of them is the art and skill of the trader and the investor.  Importantly, different philosophies will often apply differing rules in any given set of circumstances.

Watching the various factions argue about their strategy is like watching two people with no common language having a dispute.  Nothing is ever settled and all the effort is generally wasted.  Just my opinion...  please carry on.  :) 

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Just do it. XRP isn't going to suddenly take off. It moves in 0.001 steps lately. BTC has been on a steady rise, now accelerating, for almost a month. If XRP does decide to move, go back all-in.

Edited by TreeLine
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