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tony71

It’s right in front of us

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Posted (edited)

Thanks for the link, it is a very good metric to follow that I have eyed since last summer. At that time Binance and Bitstamp already had 1b xrp though.

But they are indeed preparing to prevent this issue (among others) they experienced in 2017 due the high demand.

https://www.bitstamp.net/article/update-high-demand/

Edited by JannaOneTrick

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15 minutes ago, whiteout said:

I too like to extrapolate one month into 50 months

I know one month is short, that is why I suggest do keep an eye on it and see what it will be in 3 , 6 or even 9 months from now

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I hope no one is under the impression the exchanges own all that XRP... Technically they control the private keys but you know what I mean.

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Just thinking about this distribution through crypto exchanges, and the thought occurred to me that there is a blending of "traditional business models" going on here. I have been expecting to see this as a trend for the next decade or so, as financial services  are reengineered out of the industrial age into the information age models (distributed/p2p).

Investment banks are the traditional business model for Primary Issuance of securities to the public markets/exchanges, IPOs. 

Exchanges (nyse/nasdaq/cboe/etc) are the traditional business model that operates the Secondary Market for those securities IPOed by the Investment banks. They typically do not do business with retail customers, rather... 

Retail Brokerages like Fidelity buy access to the exchanges, and sell that access to retail investors. The exchanges also do business with Market Makers, which used to be called a "Specialist" back in the human days.

Anyway, what is going on here is that the "crypto exchange's" business model is preforming a mix of what traditionally would be the functions of multiple business models...

Investment banks - IPOs of digital assets

Exchanges - operating a secondary market 

Specialists - by providing liquidity to the secondary markets they facilitate 

Retail Brokers - doing business with the general public

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XRP being moved to exchanges is an interesting metric to check, but it could be a predictor of selling action as much as be representative of supply purchases.  It might be useful to connect this information with flow from known XRP II accounts to more feasibly determine the latter, but even then:

Given the low trading volumes on the XRP Ledger presently, what you're looking at could be also seen as indicative of how much XRP the market wants to hold on exchanges versus in "cold storage".  In that sense, an argument could be made that its a stronger positive signal in terms of price to see the on-exchange number *decrease*.  If more want to hold XRP in cold storage on the XRP Ledger, it means more don't want to sell their XRP, so buying it becomes more difficult (ie, more expensive).

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My guess is.. holders sent their holdings on exchange so they can sell since they anticipate increase in price.

Soon we will get Q1 2019 report. We will see how much ripple dumped on us and how much they sold to institutions. 

In Q4 2018 we had significant decrease in institutional sell compared to Q3 2018. I hope it wont go lower in Q1 2019.

Cant wait.

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3 hours ago, Professor Hantzen said:

Given the low trading volumes on the XRP Ledger presently, what you're looking at could be also seen as indicative of how much XRP the market wants to hold on exchanges versus in "cold storage".  In that sense, an argument could be made that its a stronger positive signal in terms of price to see the on-exchange number *decrease*.

Keep in mind Liquidity Depth... 

The deeper the Orderbooks are, in more fiat jurisdictions, the more potential value flows can pass through XRPL.

If exchanges have only a small amount of XRP on their Orderbooks, that would limit the ability of Corporations/Banks to tap public exchange's liquidity and pull back their own float, (they could have private 3rd party arrangements though) 

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36 minutes ago, KarmaCoverage said:

The deeper the Orderbooks are, in more fiat jurisdictions, the more potential value flows can pass through XRPL.

Yes, that's another side of this.  I mean to suggest that the metric of on-exchange XRP versus off-exchange - when taken alone - is not necessarily indicative of anything, unless paired with other figures backing up whatever claim is being made.

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8 hours ago, Professor Hantzen said:

Yes, that's another side of this.  I mean to suggest that the metric of on-exchange XRP versus off-exchange - when taken alone - is not necessarily indicative of anything, unless paired with other figures backing up whatever claim is being made.

I wonder who is the furthest along in figuring out which metrics are appropriate for analyzing the health of a blockchain, and any business models which employ one?

Seems like several pieces of the puzzle are already out there as independent projects, with a few pieces still to be built, then all assembled into a set of manageable metrics. Understandable to both business managers and investment managers.

I think Ripple's strategic approach will be a Harvard Business School case study till 2030. Brilliance taming the unknown. 

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