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New 4 year cycle, consolidation and up trend to come ?

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3 hours ago, ManBearPig said:

@dr_ed Are you a fan of owning gold related investment vehicles, such as ETF's, or is a more direct ownership of gold preferable?

Well, I recently sold gold (and silver)  to go long cryptos, but I intend to buy some back when I rotate back out of cryptos. I only hold physical metals. ETF's  are fine for traders but not for someone looking for a  long term hold. I don't consider them safe. Maybe certain alternatives like GoldMoney would be a reasonable risk for what you get (storage and liquidity). I've always just bought bullion, though. I have a great, trusted bullion dealer.

Right now I don't expect gold to go up much in USD terms until things get a bit worse. 

I have some land and some other real property (houses) , so I have a lot of my net worth in tangible assets other than gold. I do have some debt, but it's what I consider the better quality debt.....very low interest locked in for 30 years. I'm starting to whittle it down. My leverage (debt/equity) is pretty low.

I also live in an area with above average demographics. Everybody's individual situation is a little different. For me, here in Texas, real estate has beat most other assets over the last decade. I did well with gold in the period before that, from about 2004-2011. Now it looks like it's  time to own cryptos. jmho.


Edited by dr_ed
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That's why I'm standing pat on my XRP overweight even though the action sucks right now. When it does move, it'll probably make a great move. My bag is full. I'm just adding ADA and maybe a bit more VET right now. I'm not betting the farm on crypto. I have limits on what I can afford to lose. But I think it's a fabulous time to accumulate any decent crypto. I'm still 44% XRP though. I know some people think XRP is the only one to own, but I like several others. Different risks and different price drivers.

It's all too correlated, but I still think a little diversification is wise.

Edited by dr_ed
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22 minutes ago, Kavabata said:

[...] since the break out wouldn't occur until 2020. 

Always feels like a moving goal for predictions on when things get better.

I'm still absolutely baffled that the entire crypto market fluctuates in unison regardless of what crypto has the positive or negative news. It's almost as if the best way to get steady growth is to carry everyone along evenly to keep the waters stable.

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I really appreciated this video, thanks for posting.  Of course, none of us can predict the future with certainty, but this guy's analysis and explanation seems quite feasible to me, and I can imagine that XPR could very well follow a similar trajectory.  Also, there should be much better regulatory clarity within the time frame he is envisioning.  Then when we factor in some likely world events, it could be a very interesting upcoming period.  Much appreciated, @JannaOneTrick

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Thanks for your views @dr_ed. They sound logical. Seems like you and Jana’s thoughts are similar.  I think I too will just be patient till 2021ish and look for a good point to cash some out. The concept of 4 year cycles and such are all new to me.

I’ll just keep on paying attention and learning from people I view as intelligent and informative.


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On 4/2/2019 at 9:54 PM, JannaOneTrick said:



Sorry I did not take the time to write anything when I posted this video.

In this video, this person will give his thorough analysis on price over time with respect to all the stages of the market cycle we witnessed before.

He assumes there is a 99% chances we hit the bottom in December 2018, that we might go down near the 3200 again but only to retrace back up and consolidate for the rest of the year.

The price movement we saw the last 2 days is within the price range of a consolidation.

As many already know, the main resistance above is 6500 and he expects BTC will get closer and closer to it over the period of the second half of the year.

In 2020, a price accumulation will start and last for the entire year to reach the previous ATH in spring 2021.

At this point, we will be in the 3rd year of the market cycle, and the bull run could start and last till autumn 2021 where there could a be a new ATH at 200-400k per BTC.

I think his opinion is interesting, I don't expect a bull run anytime soon, the market needs time for it. I think like him we are still in the consolidation phase for some time before prices can really start to creep up (outside a consolidation price range).

For the record, in 2015 the consolidation phase lasted between January and October. The bottom was 180 and the top price during that period of time was 300. That's a 1.7 multiplier, so to put that into perspective, if you take the BTC bottom which currently is 3200, apply a 1.7 multiplier and you get a 5440 BTC. So I would assume the price could range between 3200 and 5440 for around a 10 month period, just like in 2015. That would mean the consolidation phase could last between December 2018 and August 2019, which correlates a lot with this person's expectations.

So, the consolidation price range is somewhat around 3200 - 5500, give or take.

The accumulation price range should start around 6000 to the previous ATH.

Once we hit the previous ATH again, then the retail market ("dumb money" as he says it is called) will start pouring money in crypto and there, that's just everybody's guess, x10 x15 x20...

That would indeed lead us to a BTC of 200-400k USD, or XRP at 30-60 USD by Summer / Autumn 2021.

He then expects the bear market to start again by the end of 2021 and prices to go down again by 85% during the 4th year of the cycle, in 2022.

Iam waiting then..for autumn 2021.

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Nice recap. I'm definitely on the same page. 

It might make pretty good sense to build up some cash and wait for the inevitable retrace back down to test support. Bob Loukas expects such a move, and it makes sense to me that we will see it sometime this year.

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Well, today BTC reached the highest price tag I had calculated for this consolidation, if we are to follow the exact same pattern that happened in 2015.

  • In 2015: 180 -> 300 
  • In 2019: 3200 -> 5500

Obviously I can't tell if it will keep going upward (breaking away with the pattern we have been following so far), or of it will collapse (although not under 3200).

For the record, during all this phase back in 2015, BTC price oscillated between 180-300 for a 10-month-period, while XRP/BTC was going down, just like today.

Also, the XRP/BTC LONGS and XRP/USD LONGS are still at their ATH.

Edited by JannaOneTrick
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