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JannaOneTrick

New 4 year cycle, consolidation and up trend to come ?

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Posted (edited)

 

Edit:

Sorry I did not take the time to write anything when I posted this video.

In this video, this person will give his thorough analysis on price over time with respect to all the stages of the market cycle we witnessed before.

He assumes there is a 99% chances we hit the bottom in December 2018, that we might go down near the 3200 again but only to retrace back up and consolidate for the rest of the year.

The price movement we saw the last 2 days is within the price range of a consolidation.

As many already know, the main resistance above is 6500 and he expects BTC will get closer and closer to it over the period of the second half of the year.

In 2020, a price accumulation will start and last for the entire year to reach the previous ATH in spring 2021.

At this point, we will be in the 3rd year of the market cycle, and the bull run could start and last till autumn 2021 where there could a be a new ATH at 200-400k per BTC.

I think his opinion is interesting, I don't expect a bull run anytime soon, the market needs time for it. I think like him we are still in the consolidation phase for some time before prices can really start to creep up (outside a consolidation price range).

For the record, in 2015 the consolidation phase lasted between January and October. The bottom was 180 and the top price during that period of time was 300. That's a 1.7 multiplier, so to put that into perspective, if you take the BTC bottom which currently is 3200, apply a 1.7 multiplier and you get a 5440 BTC. So I would assume the price could range between 3200 and 5440 for around a 10 month period, just like in 2015. That would mean the consolidation phase could last between December 2018 and August 2019, which correlates a lot with this person's expectations.

So, the consolidation price range is somewhat around 3200 - 5500, give or take.

The accumulation price range should start around 6000 to the previous ATH.

Once we hit the previous ATH again, then the retail market ("dumb money" as he says it is called) will start pouring money in crypto and there, that's just everybody's guess, x10 x15 x20...

That would indeed lead us to a BTC of 200-400k USD, or XRP at 30-60 USD by Summer / Autumn 2021.

He then expects the bear market to start again by the end of 2021 and prices to go down again by 85% during the 4th year of the cycle, in 2022.

Edited by JannaOneTrick

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6 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

Those are just three examples of why the behavioural patterns of the past are being superseded by a new set of Behavioural patterns.  We are in the middle of this transition and the patterns that used to be predictive will change.  This is why I take the predictions of TA on Crypto, especially when the patterns are based on long term cycles, with a pinch of salt.  That is not the same as saying they should be ignored.

you put the thoughts in my head on paper better than I could :drinks:

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44 minutes ago, JannaOneTrick said:

At most, that's what I believe at least.

what about BCH ? it double in price in less then 48 hours.

It s still increasing atm , it reminds me of end of 2017 when it upped to 4-5k and was almost at BTC price

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If BTC goes up - They all go up. nothing new here. 

If BTC goes down and the rest or XRP is flying then there is change. Until then, this is the same old same old, grab profits whilst you can :)

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That's one way to play it. I will ride the rollercoaster back down this time, because I agree with Bob that the next downleg will only be a shakeout.

I think TA works fine (especially cycle counting)  even in times of rapidly evolving tech and shifting sands. But it's a map, it isn't the territory. Reality always wins, I don't stay married to my analysis, and neither does Bob. Hell, he might be short today. He's a trader.

But I think, until proven otherwise, that we're in the early accumulation phase of a new bull. I will be trying to buy dips, especially big ones, unless the chart breaks down. 

On the changing technology issue...this is a valid point, of course. In a market that heats up, lots of alt coins will move on FOMO. The market has had low volatility for a while. That will change.

Where I differ from Bob.....he's a technician, and like all technicians, he just trades the numbers, He thinks BTC is a vehicle, like the SPY index. He would never buy alt coins. That's where our research and deeper knowledge of these projects can help us leverage the bull to our advantage. I think a number of good projects will leave BTC in the dust in terms of price appreciation. The question is which ones? I try to buy good projects, because I'm a rational guy. I know that 's over-rated when it comes to picking which cryptos will moon. But maybe I'll catch one or two.

I am looking at the timeline in the video, the whole Cinderella story Bob laid out as a high probability scenario. Which means there will be a definite time to take profits off the table. Probably by late 2021 at the latest.

I think 2021 is shaping up to be an ugly year for markets, for several reasons. I might want to be completely out by then. If things go well, maybe taking half off the table and riding out the next bear might be sensible. But until I can buy dinner with XRP (hope I live to see that) tangible assets and low/no leverage is the way to ride out economic storms. jmho

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On 4/3/2019 at 9:57 AM, dr_ed said:

I think 2021 is shaping up to be an ugly year for markets, for several reasons.

Hi @dr_ed,

Maybe you explained why elsewhere but could you briefly explain your thoughts as to why and what you’re looking at that would confirm or support your suspicion going forward? 2021 is pretty specific so you’ve obviously thought it through. Thanks.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Roaring_Twenties said:

Hi @dr_ed,

Maybe you explained why elsewhere but could you briefly explain your thoughts as to why and what you’re looking at that would confirm or support your suspicion going forward? 2021 is pretty specific so you’ve obviously thought it through. Thanks.

Part of it is that I think the Euro is doomed, and that if the populists win the German elections in 2021 that might hasten its demise, which would lead to a rapid, chaotic restructuring of debt in the Eurozone. Worldwide, the debt is unsustainable, and it looks to me like the Euro will be the first domino to fall. That would be the shot heard round the world, imho. Much bigger than Brexit.

I expect Trump to be re-elected in 2020, and even if he isn't, I don't see a domestic situation here that favors any real growth. In an election cycle, generally the government goes the extra mile to keep the bubbles inflating, but after the US elections, I doubt it can be achieved for much longer.

Financial repression is generally achieved through hidden taxation by way of inflation in good times...but in hard times it will be achieved by raising taxes. At some point the new "American Socialists" will gain ascendancy, as the false hope brought by Mr. Trump peters out.Those of us who pay substantial taxes now on earned income (as opposed to capital gains) know that "tax cuts" never really apply much to the real tax donkeys supporting our profligate spending. People like me have seen our surplus, the money we use to build a personal nest egg, shrinking for years already.

In a global market like we have, a European banking collapse will lead to world-wide banking contagion and eventually to a collapse in equities. The equity cycle is already very much into the last part of a long upward cycle, and is only being kept from correcting now by political slight of hand and a shortage of alternatives for money seeking return.

If we have a hard correction in equities, it will lead to deflation (popping bubbles) in real estate and, in fact, all asset classes (including cryptos). However, I would expect cryptos to correct and come back stronger than most other classes. I'd expect BTC to fall with an equity collapse that leads to margin calls. All assets will be sold.......but at some point I would expect a rotation into cryptos (and gold, probably).

As Marty Armstrong says, "It's just time."

My goal is to ride the rising crypt bull for this next 2-3 years until it gets toppy. At some point I will rotate  some or all all of any gains to tangible assets and reduce debt as much as possible. If we have an extended deflationary episode (aka a depression) then the best situation is low or no debt and personal wealth held in tangible assets like metals and land. jmho.

A world war is a clear and present danger. Populists are known for using war as a distraction, and the US is constantly playing with fire with our BS foreign policy.

Edited by dr_ed

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