Daily Technical Analysis

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The Dollar Elevated Amid Treasuries Yield Rise

The Dollar Slightly up on Thursday morning in Asia following hitting a seven-month high against the yen. The U.S. Currencies would continue to gain against the Yen and Treasury yields pursue to rise systematically. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is ready to give a speech on the second half of the day.

The Record Ten-year Treasury yield obtained 1.4894% at the Asian session. The Dollar re-entered the market by trading up against major currencies resultantly, encourages the investor’s sentiment.

The U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.03% to 91.032 against a basket of other currencies.

The USD/JPY pair was slightly up 0.04& to 107.03.

The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.17% to 0.7788 with The NZD/USD pair slightly up 0.16% to 0.7258.

The USD/CNY pair edged up 0.03% to 6.4696.

The GBP/USD pair inched down 0.11% to 1.3937.

The Online Speech of Powell in regards to the Wall Street Journal jobs will be submitted later in the day, investors will closely monitor for any clue over the current treasuries yields selloff and what changes would be expected on the evaluation of the economy after the Fed’s next meeting ending 17 March 2021.


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Investors Contemplate over the reach of Stocks after Volatile Week

Investors are in dilemma about the stock market after the U.S. technology shares slipped. The market is questing whether the decline is a chance to lift the bargains or the future of stock will be grim.

The Nasdaq Composite, an indicator that includes tech and growth names has collapsed by 8.3%.

Tesla shares off 27% and Peloton fell by 32%.

The S&P 500 technology sector has retreat 7% since the U.S. Treasuries Yield’s most recent rise in February, On the Other Hand, the Russell 1000 growth Index has declined by 7.7% against a 1.8% gain for its equivalent value index.

Some Fraction of Investors anticipated that ongoing decline could be for a longer period than the previous dips creating a worrisome situation as the hope of United States economic recovery is turning from the Stay at home trades towards names prepare to get advantages from the country’s reopening.

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Dollar gets the Benefit Amid Economic Recovery; get Support from Bond Rise

• Overall performance of Dollar is under control due to the rise in Bond
• The Swiss Franc declined to 0.9369 per Dollar.
• The GBP slightly up 0.1% to $1.3834, with a three-week low of $1.3779 on Friday.
• The USD inclined to 109.235 against the yen, the highest in nine months on the other hand Euro hovered at $1.18530.

The rise in bond yields and expectations of the fastest economic recovery due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S gives the benefit to the Dollar and The U.S. currency holding the position near a 3 ½ month high versus other currencies on Tuesday.

The Dollar’s Index rose 0.1% against the six major currencies to 92.469, the highest since late November.

The dollar lingered around three-month highs on Monday after the approval of the U.S senate stimulus bill instigated another sell-off in the bond market.

The U.S. data shows non-farm payrolls gushed by 379,000 jobs last month while the U.S. Senate approved President Joe Biden’s $1.9 Trillion stimulus package.

The U.S. data labor market is ameliorated; the Market is getting better with each passing day with the expectation of economic recovery by the vaccination roll out and the passage of stimulus package.

The Market is looking forward to The U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting going to be held next week, However, the expectation of any major changes is not in cards due to the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week shows the least botheration in the rise in Bond Yields.

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EUR/USD: THE SPOTLIGHT STAYS ON THE 200-DMA AT 1.1826 – CREDIT SUISSE

EUR/USD has maintained as required at the arising 200-day moving average (DMA), currently seen at 1.1826, and analysts at Credit Suisse proceed to seem for a platform here, for now at least. The big picture though the peril is seen rising for a split lower to expose the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrendat 1.1695.

“EUR/USD has balanced for now as expected just ahead of our target of the rising 200-day average, right now it seems at 1.1826. With the additional value resistance not far below the late November low at 1.1800, we keep on searching for a story in this 1.1823 zone, for the present at any rate.”

Resistance for recuperation stays seen at 1.1916 initially, with 1.933/47 seen as a close-term key. Above here is needed to confirm a near-term floor is indeed in place, clearing the way for a recovery back to 1.1991, not only value resistance but also the 38.2% retracement of the fall from late of February and 13-Day exponential average, which we would hope to demonstrate an intense beginning obstruction.

Post a close term bound back, our bias stays lower for a closing break of 1.1826 to see the risk stay directly bearish with support then seen next 1.1800 in front of the 1.1745 and afterward more importantly at the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1695, with a new floor expected here.

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Dollar Elevated as Treasury Yields climbs with Persistence Inflation Worries

The U.S Currency was high on Monday morning in Asia, hold up by a rise in benchmark Treasury yields to more than one year high because of persistence treat in regards to high inflation.

The U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.08% to 91.748 against a basket of other currencies following touching near a one-week low at the end of the last week.
The USD/JPY pair slightly up 0.13% to 109.19.

The AUD/USD pair was slightly down 0.23% to 0.7744 on the Other hand NZD/USD pair was high by 0.28% to 0.7195.

The USD/CNY pair slightly down 0.05% to 6.5048. The Chinese data released mentioned that industrial production grew 35.1% per annum in February.
The GBP/USD pair slightly up 0.01% to 1.3923.

Investors worry about The extraordinary economic recovery leading to the current inflation rise following the $1.9 trillion packages was passed into law. moreover, the increase in the pace of COVID Vaccine rollouts. As per the order of president Joe Biden, every state is entitled to vaccination by May 1.

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The Dollar Elevated Cautious trading ahead of Fed Meets

The Dollar was slightly higher in early European trading Tuesday along with Asia, hang on to small gains amid a central bank meeting, advertize by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day gathering that starts later in the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.05% to 91.882 against the basket of other currencies.

The USD/JPY pair slightly up 0.06% to 109.19. The Bank of Japan will start its two-day policy meeting a comprehensive policy review, on Thursday.

The AUD/USD pair was slightly Down 0.10% to 0.7747.

The NZD/USD pair inched down 0.03% to 0.7198.

The USD/CNY pair slightly up 0.05% to 6.5028.

The GBP/USD pair inched down 0.12% to 1.386.

The Fed anticipated making some changes to its ongoing monetary policy. Meanwhile, the investors are bothered about the continued rise in inflation, the global COVID-19 vaccine rollout, a hefty stimulus package in the U.S, and the hope for rapid global recovery from COVID-19.

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The Dollar Trembled following Fed Remains its Peaceful Policy Decision

The Dollar wobbled on Thursday morning in Asia. The U.S. Federal Reserve stop the speculation of no hurry to increase the interest rates through all of 2023 even after the prompt economic recovery.

The USD/CNY pair edged down 0.14% to 6.4948 and the GBP/USD pair inched down 0.10% to 1.3950.

The U.S Dollar Index slightly up 0.10% to 91.483 against the basket of the other currencies.

The USD/JPY pair elevated 0.24% to 109.09.The AUD/USD pair inched down 0.37% to 0.7823 with NZD/USD pair slightly up 0.07% to 0.7245.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell persist pacifist at the time of presenting the Fed’s latest policy decision on Wednesday, stop the guesswork that the central bank would pull back its stimulus package due to the raised hopes for a strong economic recovery.

The Fed speculated that the economy might grow 6.5% in 2021, the highest annual bounce in GDP since 1984 and a 2.3% point difference from its estimation three months ago.

The bank of England is broadly expected to leave its bank rate at 0.1% and its bond-buying program unchanged when it hands down its policy decision later in the day with the Bank of Japan is going to present its own policy decision on Friday.

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Edited March 18, 2021 by xtreamforex

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Australian Stocks Declined with Asia Stocks Unsettled

The losses in the Energy, Industrials, Metals, and Mining sectors led to Shares lower, consequently, Australia Stocks were lower after the close on Friday.
S&P/ASX 200 decreased 0.56% in Sydeny

The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) Outshines, rose 4.17% or 0.390 points to trade 9.750 at the close.

The Shopping Centres Australasia Group (ASX: SCP) added 3.77% or 0.090 Points to end at 2.480.

Altium(ASX: ALU) was high 0.98 points to 27.80 in late trade.

Some worst performers were Silver Lake Resources Ltd(ASX: SLR) fell 4.44% to trade at 1.615 at the close.

Perseus Mining Ltd(ASX: PRU) declined 3.98% or 0.050 points to end at 1.205.
Lastly, Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) was declined 3.43% or 0.860 points to 24.200.
Asian Share Markets dropped on Friday following a hike in global bond yields.

With the sudden change of 7% overnight, Brent Crude futures low jump of just 11 cents to $63.39 a barrel on the other hand U.S. crude added 6 cents to $60.06.
Markets fluctuate because of the Bank Of Japan’s decision to broaden the target band for 10-Year yields with the adjustment of purchasing of assets.

As the bank is trying to keep it lively and brisk so they can ease the more sustainability, however, investors are taking a turning point from the all-out stimulus.
Chinese blue chips lost 1.9%, might be frightened by an exchange between Chinese and U.S. diplomats at the first in-person meeting of Biden’s administration.

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Reserve Bank of Australia raises rates again

The Reserve Bank Board should slow the pace of rate increases once it reaches its assessment of neutral. That is particularly because of the treacherous lags that will have built up as the inevitable result of such a sharp rate increase in rates, from 0.1% back in May.

The Governor has certainly indicated that intention, both in the speech to the Australian Business Economists on September 8 and in the Parliamentary hearing last Friday.

The scaling back to a slower pace of tightening could begin from the October meeting, with the cash rate having reached the neutral zone at 2.35%.

There has always been some uncertainty as to whether a starting point of 2.35% would be too far below the Governor’s assessment of neutral. He has argued in the past that the real neutral is at least zero, implying a 2.5% nominal rate given longer term inflation expectations. That is above the 2.35% starting point for the October meeting.

That 1% growth rate now has some downside risks but for now given the current momentum in the economy, it’s decided not to mark 2023 growth down any further. It’s also noted that since the forecast is 1% growth rate in 2023 we have revised down our 2022 growth rate from4.4% to 3.4% meaning that the level of GDP by end 2023 will be considerably lower than we had expected when we first made the 1% growth forecast.

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SNB could surprise (again) with a larger than expected hike

The central bank entered ZIRP between 2011-2015 before switching to NIRP with a rate of -0.75%, where it remained until June this year. And with seemingly few paying attention, they not only hiked rates but came out swinging with a 50 bp hike and sent shockwaves across currency markets. This quickly saw the yen strengthen as traders assumed the BOJ would be next to follow, but we’re still waiting and will likely be for some time. But the main point is that the SNB is likely to hike again tomorrow, and it would be wise to at least be prepared for a larger hike than some expect.

A recent poll saw economists up their 50bp hike for the SNB to 75bp. But in light of Sweden’s Riksbank hiking by 100bp, wholesale prices in Germany exploding higher and the potential for the Fed to hike by 100bp, the potential for the SNB to join to 100bp club. Besides, they hiked by 50bp when the consensus was for no change at all and have a track record with an element of surprise. Furthermore, the Swiss government upgraded 2022 CPI from 2.5% to 3%, and for 2023 from 1.4% to 2.3%- so perhaps they know something.

There are some examples of a strong bullish trend on a currency chart, than CHF/JPY right now. Momentum has been increasing during each impulse move higher, the moving averages are in bullish sequence and fanning out, and prices are respecting the closest average as support.

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How Much FOMC Interest Rate Hike By Fed?

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee lifted the federal funds rate to the 3.0% to 3.25% range and reaffirmed a continuation of its balance sheet runoff. The Fed updated its language stating the “recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures”.

The Summary of Economic Projections was updated from June:-

The median projection for real GDP growth was downgraded in 2022. The forecast for 2023,2024,2025 and the longer run came in at 1.2%, 1.7%, 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.

The median unemployment rate forecast was 3.8% for 2022. 4.4% for 2023, 4.4% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. The longer-run estimate of the unemployment rate stayed the same at 4.0%.

On inflation, the median estimate for core PCE was assumed to be 4.5% in 2022, 3.1% in 2023, 2.3% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
The median projection for the fed funds rate was lifted to 4.4% in 2022, 4.6% in 2023, 3.9% in 2024, and 2.9% in 2025. The long-run neutral rate was assumed to be 2.5%.

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BOE: Another 50bp hike and we expect more to come

The BOE hiked policy rates by 50bp, bringing the bank rate to 2.25. The extent to which fiscal policy is set to boost demand and hence impact policy setting is still highly uncertain. Call for a 50bp hike in November and December and 25bp in February with risks of skewed towards additional hikes in 2023.

The Bank Of England increased the Bank Rate by 50bp to 2.25% with 5 member voting for 50bp increase, 3 members voting for 75bp and one member voting for 25bp. As expected, BoE announced that outright government bond selling will start with a total reduction in bond holdings of 80 billion pounds over 12 months. The BoE repeated its meeting-by-meeting approach stating that “Policy is not on a pre-set path” giving close to no forward guidance to markets.

One of the key takeaways from the Monetary Policy Summary is that the BoE no longer seem to pencil in a recession by Q4 2022. Note no inflation or growth forecast were published at this interim meeting, but not mentioning a recession gives a hint that the recession won’t hit as soon as BoE predicted in August. This feeds well into our narrative of the Fiscal stimulus providing near-term support to the economy. With newly elected PM Lizz Truss having announced the energy relief plan, which will cap energy prices for households, BoE now sees the peak in CPI inflation to be just below 11% compared to the 13% projected in August.

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GBP down during Asian Trade

The pound was aggressively lower during Asian trade. CME stopped trading of GBP futures. GBP/USD touched a record low. Combination of the UK’s mini budget and flight to the dollar weigh on sterling.

The GBP was already facing heavy selling pressure on Friday when the UK’s new chancellor unveiled his new mini budget. The plan has been perceived as a tax cut for the rich alongside higher levels of debt, with one former treasury minister calling budget a “high risk gamble. The week closed with GBP/USD falling to just shy of its all time low set in 1985. And that level did not last very long.

In today’s session there is an aggressive selloff for the British pound, which has sent GBP.USD to a fresh record low. Currently down around -2.4%, its within its fifth consecutive down day, which includes a -3.6% decline on Friday. Such levels of volatility have not been seen since March 2020, and not restricted to GBP/USD.

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EUR/USD approaches 0.9600 lows as recovery loses

There was a sharp movement in euro which may be missed. The single currency dropped to a fresh low on the year against the greenback, reaching a low of 0.9551 before bouncing back to hit 0.9700, from where it has since drifted back lower. The EUR/USD has now fallen for the fifth consecutive day. However, it was still off the lows at the time of writing, along with the GBP/USD. Will there be any dup buying as we had to the European close?

There are no obvious sings of a bottom in the EUR/USD yet, there’s the possibility we may see some short-covering at the start of this week, primarily due to the prospects of some coordinated central bank action while the lack of fresh news may encourage short-side profit-taking. In addition, the ECB is acknowledging that the growth and inflation outlook has bad and that the risks on latter are on the upside because of a weaker exchange rate. This is what President Lagarde said earlier today, which cause a bit if a bounce in the euro, although the upside remained capped as investors worried about the health of the economy. Any front-loading of interest rate hikes will only bring forward the time the ECB cuts again to help boost the economy. The central bank’s hands are tied, like the BoE and others.

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US Housing data, Core PCE inflation

The slowing US housing market is making alive some memories from the 200—2009 great recession but there is some confusion about whether it’s a red flag for the economy these days. New home sales have been trending downwards so far this year and the August reading is expected to mark a new low at 500k from 511k previously, the lowest in six years. Pending home sales due today could show a steeper contraction of -1.4% from -1.0% previously, remaining negative for the third consecutive month.

A stabilization in the red-hot rent market in August, perhaps on the back of state limits in some regions, was probably a catalyst to a softer house demand too. However, more than half of the renters are still facing elevated prices year-on-year and given the inflation in construction materials as well as the tight supply of houses, there is little prospect for a significant slowdown in the market.

The strength in the labor market is also a tailwind for the real estate sector, delaying any defaults in loan payments. Personal income and consumption figures and together the core PCE inflation on Friday could provide some updates on that front. Although expectations are for a minor monthly pickup to 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, the indicators may not rise any concerns if they stay within normal levels. A potential mild increase in the core PCE inflation to 4.7% y/y would not be something new either after similar pace in the core CPI inflation reading.

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