Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

[JASCoder]

TA from Alessio on worse case bottom for BTC this cycle 

( TLDR; Hard floor at 23k based on historic and probabilities analysis )

 

[Eric123]

Bitcoin's price is above the Down Trend Line and the MACD has turned positive.

Hashrate back above 200 E/hs

 

[Baka]

@Eric123 i guess we should see some green days as a rebound to 35K before going back down to 18-23k 

[Eric123]

Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands are tightening, it's price has flattened out and it is staying above the first Down Trend Line.  MACD on the Daily is positive. 

19 hours ago, Baka said:

@Eric123 i guess we should see some green days as a rebound to 35K before going back down to 18-23k 

18-23k?   I wouldn't count on that price.  To me that kinda seems like back in July of 2020 when people were waiting for Bitcoin to retest $8k.

[xrp-nuke]

1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

18-23k?   I wouldn't count on that price.  To me that kinda seems like back in July of 2020 when people were waiting for Bitcoin to retest $8k

Its a reasonable price target even historically, price always was going more than 80% in bear market, 18k is 75% from ATH.

Bear market is about destroying the dream and feeling "Something is wrong"

 

[Eric123]

Sideways movement continues, price is basically flat,  Bollinger Bands continue tighten, etc.

[VanHasen]

20 hours ago, Eric123 said:

18-23k?   I wouldn't count on that price.  To me that kinda seems like back in July of 2020 when people were waiting for Bitcoin to retest $8k.

you still think BTC will go to 100k+ this year?

[Eric123]

4 minutes ago, VanHasen said:

you still think BTC will go to 100k+ this year?

Yes

[QuestionMark]

5 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Yes

Even if the "traditional" markets go into bear mode, which seems all but inevitable right now?

[Eric123]

3 minutes ago, QuestionMark said:

Even if the "traditional" markets go into bear mode, which seems all but inevitable right now?

There are passing correlations between Bitcoin and Commodities at times and Tech Stocks at times but Bitcoin's price movement is not dependent on the equity markets.  Regardless of what happens in the other markets Bitcoin has it's own adoption/growth trajectory independent of anything else.  

[QuestionMark]

1 minute ago, Eric123 said:

There are passing correlations between Bitcoin and Commodities at times and Tech Stocks at times but Bitcoin's price movement is not dependent on the equity markets.  Regardless of what happens in the other markets Bitcoin has it's own adoption/growth trajectory independent of anything else.  

That's a bold statement IMHO. So you reckon people will still put money into BTC regardless of what the economy at large is doing? I have my doubts but I guess we'll see soon enough.

Maybe I am a bit prejudiced here, but to me so far none of the much touted use cases for BTC have materialised. As it stands now it seems completely useless as an alternative payment system, way too volatile for being a store of value and it also does not seem to perform too well as a contrarian investment either.

I would love to make a buck just as much as the next guy here so a 100k BTC sounds really sexy to me but I am having a hard time imagining BTC outperforming everything by a couple of orders of magnitude in a post QE world. I am skeptical by nature and experience, but I am keeping an open mind.

[Eric123]

5 minutes ago, QuestionMark said:

Maybe I am a bit prejudiced here, but to me so far none of the much touted use cases for BTC have materialised. As it stands now it seems completely useless as an alternative payment system, way too volatile for being a store of value and it also does not seem to perform too well as a contrarian investment either.

Honestly it sounds like you're getting your info from CNBC and they've been reporting the same FUD since Bitcoin was $100. 

[QuestionMark]

3 hours ago, Eric123 said:

Honestly it sounds like you're getting your info from CNBC and they've been reporting the same FUD since Bitcoin was $100. 

Yeah, I guess re-reading my comment you could say that I do. However, that does not necessarily mean that I am wrong  it's just the way I see things as they stand right now. I also think this time really is different to whatever was happening in the world when BTC was $100. Just FYI I bought my first at around $800 a pop back in 2014. 

As I said, BTC has not been around in an economic downturn yet and we'll see just how it and crypto at large can cope while the economy is on the way down. I don't see it doing very well in that scenario, all my experience with crypto so far would suggest that it is highly susceptible to any economic jitters and that the correlation between traditional markets, particularly tech stocks, seems to be increasing rather than decreasing as time progresses and as BTC is becoming more and more mainstream. However, this time it seems that the general economic downturn is not only cyclical but also structural and while that presents a whole slew of new problems it also in itself can and most likely will change the rules of the game completely and BTC can come out on top. We'll see.

 

[xrp-nuke]

47 minutes ago, QuestionMark said:

As I said, BTC has not been around in an economic downturn yet

March 2020? 

[RipMcGillicuddy]

4 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

March 2020? 

If you blinked, you missed that "downturn". Come on.