Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

[Eric123]

5 hours ago, xrp-nuke said:

How much? 0.00001?

Yes I do, manipulation and printing is obvious. For god sake, why you need solo if you have CORE now or wtv name they gave to new more advanced and better token!!!

I bought a little more than that and picked up some litecoin too.  C'mon that's not proof.  Obvious? Give me a little more than that.  

[NMNR]

@Eric123doesn't this BTC price invalidate your targets?

[MQB]

This is the turning point. Either the 4-year cycle theory is right on target and we’re officially in a bear market; or this is the last shake off the weak hands and it goes up from here.

[BillyOckham]

34 minutes ago, MQB said:

This is the turning point. Either the 4-year cycle theory is right on target and we’re officially in a bear market; or this is the last shake off the weak hands and it goes up from here.

Isn’t another possibility that both of those long held scenarios are not valid this time around and instead we do any of the three directions randomly (and alternately?) into the near and medium term?

I just think there are memes about the crypto market that may have been broken by the dazzling pace of change and the new circumstances and types of markets that have arisen over the past year or so.

 

[NMNR]

We've already been in a bear market for a month and half. 

Some people need 6 months worth of data to confirm but by then it is way too late. 

Bear markets are where utility based coins out perform compared to outright speculative holdings.

Edited January 21, 2022 by NMNR

[BillyOckham]

11 minutes ago, NMNR said:

We've already been in a bear market for a month and half. 

Some people need 6 months worth of data to confirm but by then it is way too late. 

Bear markets are where utility based coins out perform compared to outright speculative holdings.

It’s fairly clear that for the moment at least,  we are coupled involuntarily to the stock market.

So given our apparent coupling to the Stock Market,  do you think the stock market is also in a bear market? 
 

[NMNR]

3 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

It’s fairly clear that for the moment at least,  we are coupled involuntarily to the stock market.

So given our apparent coupling to the Stock Market,  do you think the stock market is also in a bear market? 
 

The whole stock market narrative is non-sense - it has its own reasons why it is dipping but fundamentally it is different to the crypto market.

Majority of the crypto market is filled with In-experienced redditors/4-channers/discorders etc trying to find some reason why their portfolio is going down. 

[BillyOckham]

1 minute ago, NMNR said:

The whole stock market narrative is non-sense - it has its own reasons why it is dipping but fundamentally it is different to the crypto market.

Majority of the crypto market is filled with In-experienced redditors/4-channers/discorders etc trying to find some reason why their portfolio is going down. 

But respectfully,  a graph of BTC and the Stock Market is near identical over the last little while.    That’s not a ‘narrative’ that’s a matching chart.

I’m not trying to be argumentative, and I’m certain that you know far more about this than I do,  I’m just asking because I’m sceptical of the cycle theory and also the ‘weak hands’ narrative.   My scepticism extends also to whether I’m right to be sceptical….     

 

[BillyOckham]

[EDIT:   This post is wrong.  I screwed up the chart.  It wasn’t a three month period. I’d forgotten to change from 15mins.  So it’s just a tight correlation to the current drop. ]

Three months every direction faithfully followed.  BTC is grey line and is much more volatile but look at inflection points and joint direction.

 

Edited January 21, 2022 by BillyOckham

[Guest]

1 hour ago, NMNR said:

The whole stock market narrative is non-sense - it has its own reasons why it is dipping but fundamentally it is different to the crypto market.

 

1 hour ago, BillyOckham said:

But respectfully,  a graph of BTC and the Stock Market is near identical over the last little while.    That’s not a ‘narrative’ that’s a matching chart.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has been getting increasingly more correlated to the US equities market (specifically the S&P 500) to the extent that there is now a likely contagion risk. The risk isn’t that equities market falling causes crypto to fall. No one care about the crypto market. The risk is about the other way around.

S&P 500(SPX)

I think we will recover a bit after today’s expiry but the overall direction in the medium term is set for the SPX. It’s time to get a hedge.

Bull/bear markets are more about market confidence than anything inherent to the economy.

There is a hypothesis that with midterms looming, it is unlikely that the markets will be allowed to crash, and that if they do, they’ll be supported with additional QE. But that’s not guaranteed because inflation is a factor now.

Crypto

First, it is likely to follow SPX with high volatility. But crypto it also has its own problems around climate change, regulation, etc.

The only way for crypto to decouple is regulation and reduced manipulation. That’s not easy with its decentralised nature and world wide markets. 

Finally

This is a BTC thread but wanted to clarify that I’m still bullish for XRP. It might fall, but won’t fall by much because it didn’t go up by much relative to rest of crypto either. And if the regulatory clarity comes, it’ll go up that much more, and I also think XRP’s clarity can pull up the rest of the market too. 

I’ll go a step beyond that.

If XRP secondary sales are given the green signal in the US, we will start to see a lot of XRP pairs.

If the signal is broad in scope regarding secondary sales of crypto in general, then XRP will join the big two in terms of liquidity.

But if the green signal is narrow in scope to some unique circumstances of XRP, we will see liquidity start to shift from ETH and BTC pairs to XRP. 

Edited January 21, 2022 by Ripley

[NMNR]

The crypto market is more liquid in terms of entry and exiting positions for large players compared to equity markets. Less red tape and limit breakers etc. 

Basically, it's a win win to dump crypto enter equities and then re-enter crypto. Crypto has quite a lag compared to equity market rebounds etc.

The smart and big traders think in a very different way. 

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, NMNR said:

The crypto market is more liquid in terms of entry and exiting positions for large players compared to equity markets. Less red tape and limit breakers etc. 

Basically, it's a win win to dump crypto enter equities and then re-enter crypto. Crypto has quite a lag compared to equity market rebounds etc.

The smart and big traders think in a very different way. 

Definitely an interesting explanation for the correlation. 

[xrp-nuke]

1 hour ago, Ripley said:

but won’t fall by much because it didn’t go up by much relative to rest of crypto either

It can and will go much lower, and not for a first time. Unfortunatelly you did make sense here.

[xrp-nuke]

6 hours ago, Eric123 said:

I bought a little more than that and picked up some litecoin too.  C'mon that's not proof.  Obvious? Give me a little more than that.  

Hope Litecoin was an integer buy 🤣🤣🤣

Ofcourse its the prove, Common its obvious!

[MQB]

4 hours ago, NMNR said:

We've already been in a bear market for a month and half. 

Some people need 6 months worth of data to confirm but by then it is way too late. 

Bear markets are where utility based coins out perform compared to outright speculative holdings.

Is there even a single utility coin that is actually in use? or just some with such narratives?