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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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44 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Bitcoin has gone through about 8 or 10+ crashes this year depending on how you count crashes.  So far the price has kept recovering and moving on.  Waiting to break through the down trend lines and continue the move up.   

12 11 2021.png

I mentioned you can expect bitcoin to reclaim 53 to 57k but it won't be moving to new ATHs. 

 

The upside risk is not worth it. 

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6 hours ago, Eric123 said:

Bitcoin has gone through about 8 or 10+ crashes this year depending on how you count crashes.  So far the price has kept recovering and moving on.  Waiting to break through the down trend lines and continue the move up.   

12 11 2021.png

Is there an overall structure that you’re following on a long timeframe (since the bear cycle ended up to a certain date in the future or up to the present at least), or is there not really a structure to follow and crashes can occur as many times as they like and with whatever magnitude, so long as it still hasn’t reached the target price at the end? I guess what I’m asking you is; What would tell you “Oh crap, x or y scenario happened, therefore BTC has topped out already and this is most likely over for now” 

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1 hour ago, Neurotoxin said:

I guess what I’m asking you is; What would tell you “Oh crap, x or y scenario happened, therefore BTC has topped out already and this is most likely over for now” 

Like I wrote on November 30, if the parabolic run doesn't happen in Q1 of 2022 at the latest, my assumption that bitcoin's price is still on a 4 year cycle will be invalidated and the situation will need to be reevaluated.    

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7 hours ago, Eric123 said:

the situation will need to be reevaluated

What would the possible outcomes of such reevaluation be, assuming BTC is at say $95k by end of 22Q1? (say it got to 95k without much price actions and has been on a bit of a random walk path to that price)

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9 Days of sideways movement in the upper $40k range. There are a bunch of down trend lines bitcoin has to break through.  

On 12/12/2021 at 2:58 AM, Nat99 said:

What would the possible outcomes of such reevaluation be, assuming BTC is at say $95k by end of 22Q1?

Many are speculating that the cycle of Bitcoin's price cycle is lengthening, which might be the case.  If the four year cycle no longer holds we are basically in new territory - some predict price based on the network effect, some based on scarcity - honestly at this point it's all conjecture, we'll just have to see what happens. 

12 6 2021.png

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5 hours ago, Eric123 said:

Many are speculating that the cycle of Bitcoin's price cycle is lengthening, which might be the case.

Some random musings on this topic for entertainment purposes:

- If BTC price cycle is in fact lengthening, then at some point in the near future (next cycle?) the tail end of one price cycle will begin to overlap the halving event of the next price cycle.  Once this happens, the stage will be set for sustained price appreciation, and with it the reduced volatility.

- At some point in November, PlanB was forecasting some pretty high numbers BTC was going to reach in November and December since according to his projection the average price for this cycle was 100k (or something like that).  The amusing part is that he seemingly failed to consider that a cycle average of 100k could also be achieved by virtue of duration of time spent above 100k rather than solely by the size of the transient speculative parabolic wave.  A longer cycle this time around means that he could still be proven right by the time 2024 halving takes place.  To be determined.

- Speaking of PlanB, his original S2F analysis still seems like his best work.  As early as March of 2019 he was calling for avg BTC price of 55k post halving.  Prescient thus far.  image.png.b4882ed57ce70fb7a458430a369fc76d.png

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8 hours ago, MQB said:

Hi @Plikk you've been quiet for quite a while now.

What's your take on the stage the market is at right now? when will BTC.D going down under 40%?

Thanks.

BTC dominance is currently breaking out of a bullish falling wedge and has formed a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders which often signals a reversal. At least for the short term it is what I expect. 
 

I don’t think I agree with people like BCB that alt season will come right now, I actually expect BTC will recover soon and alts will not follow it going parabolic. If we are in a lengthened cycle, which it is starting to look like more and more, alt season would have to wait as well.

Coming days will tell, things can change fast but this is what it looks like right now to me. If BTC goes below 40% Dominance it would invalidate the above scenario. As always the charts never lie and I remain open minded to any scenario. 
 

But If this plays out:

The bad news is that we have to wait probably some more months for alts to moon  

The good news is that lagging alts(like xrp and many many others) will get way more time to catch up and potentially go up way harder than if they would blast off right about now.

Furthermore, I don’t think the bearmarket has started, but I am less bullish than before. In the May-August dip, in which I was one of the few whom remained bullish all the way through, it was an easier call.

BTC structurally has not signaled it is in a bearmarket yet, and as long as important lvls hold or wil be reclaimed (53k is very important) the chances increase we get a lengthened cycle. But if BTC starts to lose about 40k, it would be invalidated and bearmarket here we come. But it is too soon to tell, the sole reason that so few alts have moved this year, gives hope the steam is not yet out of the market. I have personally derisked a small part of my portfolio some time back, but I have plenty skin in the game left which will patiently await until their set targets get hit either in this bullmarket or the next. 
 

 

A6E146F0-8370-4F4F-B8B8-29574F831159.jpeg

Edited by Plikk
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More sideways movement here for Bitcoin's price.  

16 hours ago, automatic said:

If BTC price cycle is in fact lengthening, then at some point in the near future (next cycle?) the tail end of one price cycle will begin to overlap the halving event of the next price cycle.

I'm not sure how this is gonna play out. I assume the supply shock will at some point be factored in to the price.

12 14 2021.png

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18 hours ago, Plikk said:

BTC dominance is currently breaking out of a bullish falling wedge and has formed a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders which often signals a reversal. At least for the short term it is what I expect. 
 

I don’t think I agree with people like BCB that alt season will come right now, I actually expect BTC will recover soon and alts will not follow it going parabolic. If we are in a lengthened cycle, which it is starting to look like more and more, alt season would have to wait as well.

Coming days will tell, things can change fast but this is what it looks like right now to me. If BTC goes below 40% Dominance it would invalidate the above scenario. As always the charts never lie and I remain open minded to any scenario. 
 

But If this plays out:

The bad news is that we have to wait probably some more months for alts to moon  

The good news is that lagging alts(like xrp and many many others) will get way more time to catch up and potentially go up way harder than if they would blast off right about now.

Furthermore, I don’t think the bearmarket has started, but I am less bullish than before. In the May-August dip, in which I was one of the few whom remained bullish all the way through, it was an easier call.

BTC structurally has not signaled it is in a bearmarket yet, and as long as important lvls hold or wil be reclaimed (53k is very important) the chances increase we get a lengthened cycle. But if BTC starts to lose about 40k, it would be invalidated and bearmarket here we come. But it is too soon to tell, the sole reason that so few alts have moved this year, gives hope the steam is not yet out of the market. I have personally derisked a small part of my portfolio some time back, but I have plenty skin in the game left which will patiently await until their set targets get hit either in this bullmarket or the next. 
 

 

A6E146F0-8370-4F4F-B8B8-29574F831159.jpeg

I work for a USD 500billion+ Asset Management company and your comment reads like an excerpt of the monthly letters we send out to our investors. Well done.

Edited by Nat99
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