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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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7 hours ago, Xrpdude said:

Nope, nope and nope. When will you make a correct call bro?

I didn't make a call.  Saying hopefully it will break through is not making a call.  In a few days the picture will also probably change considerably from last night's blood bath. 

BTW this is a great buying opportunity, (If you are not already in)huge down wicks have historically provided great opportunities

Edited by Eric123
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I don't think many here quite understand the importance of this move...

This is the market data from Binance over the last 4 years (Dec '17 to today) so around 1,570 data points. The observation dates below are what we could the "tail moves" i.e. the market moves that would lie beyond the worst 1% and 99% of the historical distribution of returns.

The market move on 4th DEC for BTCUSD is ~ -17% (btc price = $47k as of writing)

Historically, if you take the average of the tail positive returns, you get +15%, if you apply that to current BTC price ($47K) you should expect BTC to top out around $53K before it capitulates. If you take the tail positive returns of December (between '19 till today) which is equivalent to a +22% move, you would expect BTC to top out at around $57K i.e. don't be surprised of a BTC recovery between $53k to $57k. If you want to leverage, i would go with these levels and then exit.

In short, the historical moves on Bitcoin are telling you what price levels you should expect. None of them even provide concrete proof of anything like $100K+.

date format = dd/mm/yyyy

 

Tail negative returns

image.thumb.png.40ecabeb0cb573a5c309ffd1335748b4.png

Tail positive returns

image.thumb.png.8241a9b6db3fcabf3e63297a9399b54e.png

Edited by NMNR
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Just now, MQB said:

If you can “expect” the price, the whales would have been dead instead.

I am buying more……..

There's no harm in buying at this price level as I would expect btc recovery to 53k so there's a few K profit if you want some easy money. Then it's time to close that position. The window here is quite short imo. It isn't worth the risk. 

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40 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

I didn't make a call.  Saying hopefully it will break through is not making a call.  In a few days the picture will also probably change considerably from last night's blood bath. 

BTW this is a great buying opportunity, (If you are not already in)huge down wicks have historically provided great opportunities

I really respect your work here, even if it didnt play out so well at the moment, maybe not yet.

My sinister feeling about double top and a following crash was just too big and I sold of 3/4 of my portfolio before friday.

Was a lucky move i guess, but i try to trust also my gut feelings.

But I but i opened a small metaverse position this morning, coudnt resist, was too big of a dump.

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Halfway there:

On 11/14/2021 at 11:01 AM, automatic said:

To any longs out there - watch out for a possible backtest of 45k-54k range before the next move higher.  I'm not saying that it's gonna happen, but I don't think it can be fully ruled out quite yet either.

Reasoning: longer cycles this time, everyone thinks that 60k will hold and the BTC will rocket upwards from here.  I also think that BTC will rocket from here, but it will be easier for it to do so after wiping out all stops in the 50k range.

Meanwhile, alts are getting compressed and BTC dominance is riding the support line:

image.thumb.png.5cb1007d40e7a28ccdee6c2698dbb2c7.png

This could go multiple ways, but I'm leaning towards a weak BTC recovery coupled with a strong alt recovery and a sharp drop in BTC dominance. 

Afterwards... we'll have to see.  It will either be dump o'clock, or the cycle final BTC pump fueled by alt-to-BTC rotation.

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11 minutes ago, automatic said:

Halfway there:

Meanwhile, alts are getting compressed and BTC dominance is riding the support line:

image.thumb.png.5cb1007d40e7a28ccdee6c2698dbb2c7.png

This could go multiple ways, but I'm leaning towards a weak BTC recovery coupled with a strong alt recovery and a sharp drop in BTC dominance. 

Afterwards... we'll have to see.  It will either be dump o'clock, or the cycle final BTC pump fueled by alt-to-BTC rotation.

It’s what I’ve been expecting/wanting😎 wasn’t phased by this move down and would have bought some @0.65 if I was awake 🥺

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3 hours ago, PirateParrot said:

backtest

"backtest" means testing a set of trading rules on historical data in order to determine the profitability of said rules. What you refer to is a "re-test" of a previously relevant price point/area.

Sorry to be the school teacher here. BlockchainBacker also mixes up these two.

 

Yes, agree, ETH seems to have retested the previous level. Guess there was some liquidity to fetch there.

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5 hours ago, Nat99 said:

"backtest" means testing a set of trading rules on historical data in order to determine the profitability of said rules. What you refer to is a "re-test" of a previously relevant price point/area.

Sorry to be the school teacher here. BlockchainBacker also mixes up these two.

 

Yes, agree, ETH seems to have retested the previous level. Guess there was some liquidity to fetch there.

Thanks, yes, I must admit I used BCB’s term there, just wondered was there any significance with ETH holding these support levels whereas Bitcoin didn’t…maybe a sign of decoupling for an alt run or reversal in Bitcoin dominance.

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9 hours ago, Xrpdude said:

Do you feel that anyone that comes up with bullish predictions that are, very very unlikely (400k), should just get a pass with no scrutiny at all? Isn't it more beneficial to call out poor and unrealistic predictions, or lots of failed predictions in a row. Especially when a lot of predictions start with 'Bitcoin should' ... OR even more certain, statements like 

"Looks like support was set around $54k.  Recovery in process." - with no admission of any other possibility. For contrast, after Eric123's statement (like it was fact) of a 'recovery' BTC went on to drop another 12k. 

You think calling out this is mean? I think calling this out is doing newbies in the space a service - this is crypto guys: BE CAREFUL. Just because one man draws triangles on charts and loves to write daily updates you should not trust them. No matter how certain and vocal they are. 

Healthy cynicism is vital for any society, even a small online one littered with rubes. You're doing good work, genuinely, and I appreciate you poking at Eric rather than just blindly accepting everything he says as gospel.

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