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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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5 minutes ago, Pterolycus said:

I don't think this is divination or made up lines and numbers...

Ok. Then explain to me, like a 2 years old, why such a line drawn on a graph has any significance in the future price action of a security. If you can *prove it scientifically*, then I'll bow to you. If not, you are believing in something you cannot prove, which to me is the definition of divination. Just like moon phases and star alignments determine a person's character at birth.

Edited by Troote
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15 minutes ago, Troote said:

With caveats. Yes, when many people use them, lots of people follow. More importantly, my grief with them is you can move them wherever and however you want to make them "true". For instance: which candle will a trend line start from? From the wick or the body (or both on Plikk's chart)? What candle will you use for the fib retracement start/end? More often than not, if the fib/trendline does not work, you can just move it ever so slightly to make it work, until it doesn't work at all. Same with Elliott Waves. Oh the pattern is broken? Just rename your 1-2-3-4-5 and a-b-c until the theoretical pattern matches the chart.

You can't "change your mind" about data. At 10:30 this morning there was a 59M negative delta on Bitmex that was absorbed exactly at the $47,191 point of control, which is henceforth a significant daily support on that exchange. Was a great place to open an intraday long. Disagree with me? Talk to Bitmex support and tell them their data feed is wrong.

See the difference? Divination vs data.

Using that data gives you the information afterwards, how do you predict the support or resistance? Looking at how big sell or buy walls pop up or suddenly dissappear when touched planning in advance using orderbooks seems troubling to me. 

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9 minutes ago, Caracappa said:

Using that data gives you the information afterwards, how do you predict the support or resistance? Looking at how big sell or buy walls pop up or suddenly dissappear when touched planning in advance using orderbooks seems troubling to me. 

I am not talking about the orderbook (it is meaningless, it gets spoofed all the time as you rightly point out) but the orderflow. You have the history but it is a real time data feed.

Edited by Troote
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23 minutes ago, Troote said:

With caveats. Yes, when many people use them, lots of people follow. More importantly, my grief with them is you can move them wherever and however you want to make them "true". For instance: which candle will a trend line start from? From the wick or the body? What candle will you use for the fib retracement start/end? More often than not, if the fib/trendline does not work, you can just move it to make it work.  

You can't "change your mind" about data. At 10:30 this morning there was a 59M negative delta on Bitmex that was absorbed exactly at the $47,191 point of control, which is henceforth a significant daily support on that exchange. Disagree with me? Talk to Bitmex support and tell them their data feed is wrong.

See the difference? Divination vs data.

You started with a pretty aggressive attitude towards my neutral observation. Never heard of spoofing or false exchange data/washing? It is so common in crypto those data points you refer to are often misleading. 

The ‘made up’ trendline has held support exactly where it should. Not saying it can’t reverse from here, but waving it away as non-sense and claiming exchange data is a better measure is plain wrong IMO. 

We’ll indeed leave it at this, we’re simply on a whole other page and an endless discussion between us is undesirable. 

 

F8B35464-AA16-44A5-811A-267AD4F58DF0.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, Plikk said:

claiming exchange data is a better measure is plain wrong IMO. 

It seems clear to me that you just don't know what you don't know.

I am out of here, way to much XRP Chat for at least one month again. Good luck.

Edited by Troote
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25 minutes ago, Troote said:

It seems clear to me that you just don't know what you don't know.

I am out of here, way to much XRP Chat for at least one month again. Good luck.

They say rationalists do not make the best decision makers.  Rationalism is but one useful factor in the profile of a good decision maker (I think it is extremely slow method and one changeable factor throws out all their calculations).  Interestingly in experiments with stock traders they have discovered Gut feeling trumps rationalism.

Not everyone has good gut feeling,   It can be measured by asking people to tell them to mark the beats of their hearts, and some people can do this with a lot of accuracy, others cannot do it at all.  The ones who have this magical ability outperform by a considerable degree the ones who are less in tune with their interoceptive selves, they sort of know what is going to happen without really being able to explain it.  

I think their is some truth to this, and on this forum we can see there are some people who actually are better at predicting than others.  We embody our decisions, and out intelligence is embodied quality.  

Edited by Julian_Williams
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49 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

Not everyone has good gut feeling,   It can be measured by asking people to tell them to mark the beats of their hearts, and some people can do this with a lot of accuracy, others cannot do it at all.  

The ones who can do it with a great deal of accuracy might want to get their blood pressure checked ;)

Sorry, couldn't resist. 

But yes, it is possible to make a god out of rationalism and put the world into scientific box as defined by oneself or others... When we consider that we can't possible know or understand everything individually or collectively, I don't think this is actually the rational way to look at things.

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2 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

They say rationalists do not make the best decision makers.  Rationalism is but one useful factor in the profile of a good decision maker (I think it is extremely slow method and one changeable factor throws out all their calculations).  Interestingly in experiments with stock traders they have discovered Gut feeling trumps rationalism.

Not everyone has good gut feeling,   It can be measured by asking people to tell them to mark the beats of their hearts, and some people can do this with a lot of accuracy, others cannot do it at all.  The ones who have this magical ability outperform by a considerable degree the ones who are less in tune with their interoceptive selves, they sort of know what is going to happen without really being able to explain it. 

 

The intuitionists called - said thanks for your kind words, mumbled something about a lack of methodological rigor on that heartbeat study (they bet;  call it a gut feeling), and that your membership is under consideration.  They appreciate the PR.

:)

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7 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

it has hardly fallen back at all :)  Apparently we need to get past 54 dollars and then it is fireworks?

IIRC the BCB's Fib. charts, the 50k it the top of the .702, and 54k is the next level.
We're currently bouncing off that (obviously), which is both a psychological threshold number, as well as the 702.

I think he indicated the past times the next level gets penetrated, we've seen a good spike to the upside.

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9 hours ago, Troote said:

See the difference? Divination vs data.

I’m a hopeless chart follower… I never really know what it’s going to do next.  I see some value in TA (because participants use it which becomes self-fulfilling) and I vaguely understand the simplest bits of it.

I don’t normally read the discussions about it too deeply.  So I’m interested to hear that you have a different approach.  If you have the time and inclination could you please give a brief overview of what you use?  
 

Thanks in advance, or no worries if you don’t have the time or desire.

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