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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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1 hour ago, MQB said:

Tell me why gold and silver are reserve precious metals. There are many, many metals way more useful and way better than them.

One way to explain why certain metals became money is that they were harder to produce than others. It ties into the Stock To Flow idea (S2F). Gold has the highest S2F, that's why it eventually replaced silver, which has a lower S2F.

Ideally you wouldn't want a commodity to have any other use other than to be money, i.e. to have as close to a 100% of a monetary premium over its industrial use. Silver is used much more than Gold in terms of industrial demand. Satoshi Nakamoto had that comparison with some useless element that was ugly and couldn't do anything else but be seamlessly transferred. It would be great money, according to him (I believe he was assuming a fixed supply). I think it's important to view money as an idea, and when you take it from there, it doesn't matter what form it has, but rather its properties matter. In that sense gold was great, because it was shiny and a collectible, but the shiny nature of it also makes it hard for humans to separate the form from its properties which are essentially a hard to find/mine rock.

Regarding "collectible" and the evolution of money, in the chart below, the "We are here" point is a bit outdated IMO. I think we're at step "Growing Network Value" and solidly on our way to "widespread medium of exchange". BTC adoption grows at 100-115% per year, according to Willy Woo (who looks at new entities formed on the Blockchain), which means that at this rate, by 2027/2028, everybody will own BTC. It would be a faster adoption rate than the internet, which grew at 85% p.a.

It's easy to understand, given that BTC is a network (BTC itself) of a network (the internet) of a network (printing press manufactured books) of a network(manually written books) of a network (orally transmitted knowledge).

And if you look at the lightning network growth, I think it has tripled in node count this year alone. So, the third layer of BTC, whatever that is, probably smart contracts of some sort, will probably grow at 500-1000% p.a.

This dynamic totally eclipses gold, not only by S2F metrics, but by the network nature itself. Gold just can't keep up. It might increase in value in USD terms but it should approach/trend to zero in BTC terms.

 

image.thumb.png.f72d1e80336dee127d24a699967cf1d9.png

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35 minutes ago, lizshadehdg said:

Besides the long history of human being using gold and silver as currency, there are some characteristics of these two metals making them good candidates as currency.

To be precise, gold and silver were never used as currency, but as money. The difference is important, given that "money" and "currency" can share the "medium of exchange" trait. "Currency" may be a store of value (assuming its convertibility is not being abused - humans have a bad track record in this), but "money" always is a store of value.

Gold/Silver-backed currency was introduced later in the 19th century, with all the trouble we know about. It was essentially a second layer that perverted the first one (the actual metal itself), because the first layer couldn't be settled easily and the Bank of England became the de facto world's clearing house - with all the negative effects associated with this centralization that come with it.

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6 hours ago, MQB said:

Care to shed some light on how rigged the system is?

Oh, it's on many fronts. I work in Asset Management and it's just insane how nobody is aware of the Cantillion Effect, how we lend out securities multiple times (yes, multiple clients have a claim on one and the same stock/bond), how we are operationally stuck in the 60s, with securities settling at T+2 and sometimes T+3 (investment funds), or even T+5 (certain OTC securities like senior loans/junior subordinated debt).

Is there anything in particular you want me to go into?

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6 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

 Why?

I think you need to ask the question, why something "old" needs to be replaced with something new, or why "new" is better than old. Have we been conditioned to think like that by Silicon Valley?

Here's a hint: BTC is the only digital asset that spontaneously formed its network and all the sub-networks with it.

Gun powder has been around for several centuries and we still go to war with the same old tech. The cartridges/caliber specs we use today are sometimes 100+ years old. 

There certainly is tech that's better, but, and here comes the kicker: if you want one network to replace another, it needs to be 10x better than the previous one (rule of thumb). And so until we don't invent a mechanism that is 10x better that a .308 coming out of a barrell, that's what we'll go with. Facebook beat Myspace because it went mobile.

And no, XRP being much faster in settlement than BTC doesn't matter, because BTC never competed with VISA, but with Fedwire, which takes days to settle. And in comparison to that, a 10 min private,  permission-less settlement layer is definitely a 10x. No crypto currency is a 10x step function improvement over BTC and therefore they are no threat.

Check this out for more on the 10x idea.

https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoins-network-effect/

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2 minutes ago, Nat99 said:

No crypto currency is a 10x step function improvement over BTC and therefore they are no threat.

That’s ludicrous.  XRP is thousands of times improved over BTC.

Cheaper, faster, 51%proof.  Massively better in all regards.

By your own logic BTC will be replaced by XRP or something better.

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21 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

That’s ludicrous.  XRP is thousands of times improved over BTC.

Cheaper, faster, 51%proof.  Massively better in all regards.

By your own logic BTC will be replaced by XRP or something better.

I said that badly.  
 

What I meant is that by Nat’s logic it will be replaced,  but I personally don’t think it’s going away.  I think it’s kind of like Krugerrands or Swiss Francs in that it will have value because of its history.

And that it probably is going to hit 100k.  
 

But what interests me is why people hold it in high regard when it’s inferior technically and geopolitically vulnerable.  Certainly I don’t think it’s the ‘Future’ or ‘Freedom’.

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56 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

I said that badly.  
 

What I meant is that by Nat’s logic it will be replaced,  but I personally don’t think it’s going away.  I think it’s kind of like Krugerrands or Swiss Francs in that it will have value because of its history.

And that it probably is going to hit 100k.  
 

But what interests me is why people hold it in high regard when it’s inferior technically and geopolitically vulnerable.  Certainly I don’t think it’s the ‘Future’ or ‘Freedom’.

I wanna know too, but I will admit that I’m not educated enough on the subject to argue otherwise. 

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As soon as dominance loses the blue lvl, I expect it to go down fast. So far everything going pretty much as expected. I am excited for the next couple of months, but especially look forward to the end of this year.
 

It will probably remain a rocky road ahead with plenty of scary corrections. But this was probably the worst and most scary one and I’m glad the market is recovering as anticipated. 
 

 

140A2456-097C-432E-8165-B387744E510B.jpeg
 

Shared this some time back, seems to be playing out perfectly. But let’s wait and see if we do get a real breakdown on the dominance, it could still show resilience. 
D4607835-B797-41FD-BD8F-FE61A3D8D0C4.thumb.jpeg.711d0f4e881499d032efdbf17e9ee8db.jpeg

Edited by Plikk
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4 hours ago, Plikk said:

As soon as dominance loses the blue lvl, I expect it to go down fast. So far everything going pretty much as expected. I am excited for the next couple of months, but especially look forward to the end of this year.
 

It will probably remain a rocky road ahead with plenty of scary corrections. But this was probably the worst and most scary one and I’m glad the market is recovering as anticipated. 
 

 

140A2456-097C-432E-8165-B387744E510B.jpeg
 

Shared this some time back, seems to be playing out perfectly. But let’s wait and see if we do get a real breakdown on the dominance, it could still show resilience. 
D4607835-B797-41FD-BD8F-FE61A3D8D0C4.thumb.jpeg.711d0f4e881499d032efdbf17e9ee8db.jpeg

you were calling for sub 20 on the BTC.D chart, am I right?

That would be a massive bullrun for alts. Man, those $50 per XRP fantasies are warming up again...

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12 minutes ago, Nat99 said:

you were calling for sub 20 on the BTC.D chart, am I right?

That would be a massive bullrun for alts. Man, those $50 per XRP fantasies are warming up again...

Yes, 12-15% is my target. We’ve seen 36% in the last cycle, It seems only logical with the amount of new successful alts and BTC focus shift to ETH, that dominance will get struck down to such levels. People and businesses are starting to appreciate actual functionality over blockchain SoV hype. 
 

Remember it is a target, it can get hit in a day and mark the bottom, then shoot back up to 30%+ in a matter of days/weeks. That’s what I expect. 

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46 minutes ago, Plikk said:

Yes, 12-15% is my target. We’ve seen 36% in the last cycle, It seems only logical with the amount of new successful alts and BTC focus shift to ETH, that dominance will get struck down to such levels. People and businesses are starting to appreciate actual functionality over blockchain SoV hype. 
 

Remember it is a target, it can get hit in a day and mark the bottom, then shoot back up to 30%+ in a matter of days/weeks. That’s what I expect. 

Wow - 15%!? I would only expect that if there's a seismic shift from BTC to ETH (which is happening...but at a dwindling pace).

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