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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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4 hours ago, Nat99 said:

@Eric123thoughts on this one?

I'm more in the camp of those who see the FED always choosing the direction of inflation, i.e. print more money to keep the stock market propped up. Too many retirees depend on it in the US.

(I'd even go as far and say that the FED will walk back their "thinking about thinking about talking about talking about potentially maybe at some point tapering".  We'll see in August, but given CPI will come down from it's YoY distorted high, they'll have a reason to state that there's not enough inflation according to their numbers. They might raise 0.25%, but it won't be next year.)

Again, always keep in mind that the markets are not a reflection of the real economy.

 

@Plikk When you say you want to be in fiat when SHTF, this assumes a certain amount of trust in fiat itself, which is a bit of a contradiction to an economic collapse. Given how leveraged the banks are, fiat is not safe there, too. FDIC insurance only covers so much and if really FDIC gets triggered, the FED will have to step in, which means markets go up again. It was similar here in Switzerland in '08. The local FDIC equivalent had CHF 5 billion available, but would've needed CHF 60b to pay out all bank account holders if they had let the banks deleverage and subsequently go bust.

You can stay in actual paper cash, but that has its own risks.

I don’t think it will be a big enough collapse that governments actually lose control over their monetary policies and such. But I do believe in a rough economic downturn ahead. In which people will sell their stocks, bonds and crypto in panic. 
 

Inflation narrative is being puehed right now, so people are eager to trade their fiat into commodities etc. As soon as they start to panic sell their belongings, they will have to trade back into fiat and thus demand will grow and fiat will gain strength again. It will be a process and during that process I want to be ready to take advantage of low prices and having fiat ready at all time to buy when everyone is selling. 
 

It’s not as easy as it’s sounds and I will probably make plenty mistakes too. But as long as you have an edge on the ‘herd’ I think solid long-term investments can be made. 

Edited by Plikk
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2 hours ago, Benaoao20 said:

Been stalking this topic for a couple years now 

and I think we can safely say that, yes, @Eric123, this was the mother of all pennants on post #1 here in this thread 

The funny thing is, it’s not actually a pennant, but more like a falling wedge.
 

Giggle Smile GIF

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Hmmm we might be onto something here. Maybe dominance has had it’s retrace already and is now ready to move back down. Similarities with 2017 are uncanny, also look at that EMA cross which actually is about to happen right now. 
 

This would mean alt season will return earlier than most would have thought. Yes please. 
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3 hours ago, Plikk said:

Similarities with 2017 are uncanny, also look at that EMA cross which actually is about to happen right now. 
 

This would mean alt season will return earlier than most would have thought. Yes please.

Compound (COMP) already started leading the pack and had a significant breakout (wouldn’t call it a breakout as much as a pronounced pump but u get the drift) a few days ago and is still holding the gains quite nicely. 

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6 hours ago, Plikk said:

This would mean alt season will return earlier than most would have thought. Yes please. 

I mean, BTC being where it is, it'll take a while to take out 64k. Alts might as well go ahead and make their move.

 

2 hours ago, Neurotoxin said:

Compound (COMP) already started leading the pack

KNC has shown some movement yesterday and TFUEL has a good chart setup (mainnet 3 launched yesterday, too).

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1 hour ago, Xrpdude said:

@PlikkLooks like it's fallen through the "retest" - are you still confident we're going to moon?

 

40 minutes ago, Xrpdude said:

The delusion is at a high in this forum :) so many people ignoring the empirical signs 

You don't "moon" immediately after a retest. Personally, the fact we bounced to 36k and now back to 33k is just sideways trading. 

If empirical signs were so obvious, I would've thought you would be well off enough to not even care lol.

We're now in earnings season, things are definitely going to be interesting...

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1 hour ago, Xrpdude said:

@PlikkLooks like it's fallen through the "retest" - are you still confident we're going to moon?

It’s not too late to get back in ;) This market is trending upwards, not downwards. As long as ~32k holds, we have formed a nice bottoming structure. RSI shows clear bullish divergences.

You got shaken out by a big old bear trap IMO. Lack of understanding these complex market mechanics causes many people to fall for the same mistakes. A 50% drop is just an arbitrary number and doesn’t mean the bullcycle is over, look at the bigger picture. 

Coming months will tell the full story. I am fully long and filled my pockets the last couple of weeks. I can be wrong as can any of us, but I feel confident I made the right choice because the signs the market is giving me, it looks like the bottom is definitely in. 
 

If I am right, I can exit this market earlier when I think the real top is in. If 4y cycle theory holds true, that would be around nov-jan. Then would be the time to exit 75%+ of my positions, certainly not now. I’ll sell the coming big green candles, not these big red ones ;)  
 

But sinde you are still here quite often, you must have a lot of doubts about your decision. It’s genuinely not too late to get in again, you can probably buy back in more than what you sold for so would be a win-win to you(if I am right ofc). Good luck anyhow, let this market treat all of us well. 

Edited by Plikk
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@PlikkI hope so, I hope we all do well. We'll see if I "lack understanding" in the coming weeks / months. The fact that I could buy back in is always there - personally I don't like these prices though. 

So with you being all-knowing and clearly better than me in terms of interpretation and understanding did you sell anything before the 50% losses hit the market? Surely you would have made some huge gains through this? (No - would be my best guess, unless you have a post on here you could point to that contemporaneously demonstrates your skills / understanding of market conditions)?

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11 minutes ago, Xrpdude said:

@PlikkI hope so, I hope we all do well. We'll see if I "lack understanding" in the coming weeks / months. The fact that I could buy back in is always there - personally I don't like these prices though. 

So with you being all-knowing and clearly better than me in terms of interpretation and understanding did you sell anything before the 50% losses hit the market? Surely you would have made some huge gains through this? (No - would be my best guess, unless you have a post on here you could point to that contemporaneously demonstrates your skills / understanding of market conditions)?

I sold 30% of my ADA between 1.9-2.35 USD. Sold 15% of my VET around 18.5 cents. Bought me a nice car and made me able to diversify into other asset classes. 

The remainder has been re-invested last couple of weeks in worse performing alts, which are doing quite well for me right now. 

I am fully aware I will never sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom, but that is not necessary. My strategy has allowed me to accumulate during downturns and sell during euphoria. I am quite happy how it ‘s working out. We did go lower than I expected, but technically the bullcycle isn’t broken. Patience and suppressing of emotions is key to me. 
 

I simply won’t sell during big red candles, fear takes over then. I simply wait till my targets either hit, or that we’ve reached the end of the cycle in my eyes. No sooner no later. AlL in between is just noise. 

Edited by Plikk
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