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Tether FUD makes me cringe every single time. I have been fighting many different variants of Tether FUD for years now, and every single time it comes back with even more far-fetched 'problems'. It's a complete non-issue.

The main problem remains that the level of ignorance surrounding Tether is immense, hence the FUD can come back again and again in different forms. New investors or easily scared one can be influenced over and over. Easy target for whale games.

Edited by Plikk
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42 minutes ago, Plikk said:

Tether FUD makes me cringe every single time. I have been fighting many different variants of Tether FUD for years now, and every single time it comes back with even more far-fetched 'problems'. It's a complete non-issue.

The main problem remains that the level of ignorance surrounding Tether is immense, hence the FUD can come back again and again in different forms. New investors or easily scared one can be influenced over and over. Easy target for whale games.

Yup, seems about once per year it crops up and someone is convinced it's about to blow everything up. Nothing every happens. Maybe one year something will... but until then I seem to have become immune to Tether-based-fear. 

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Bitcoin is staying in the $30K-$40k range.  MACD on the Daily chart has turned positive.  Thanks to China's mining ban the bitcoin hashrate has plummeted along with the price.  Sad for the Chinese - good for the rest of the world - Bitcoin is trading at a discount and mining has become easier - it won't last.

On 6/27/2021 at 9:11 AM, Nat99 said:

Bobby Lee had a good comment about the top of a cycle: it's not when the big FUD guns come out that the top is in, but when the price doubles in 1-3 days. So, for this year it would mean that price could double from 150k to 300k in 3-4 days with 35k-50k candles per day. Sounds about right, @Eric123?

We will definitely be getting some earth shattering candles in terms of size.  In the 2017 bull run there were candles that were over 3x the previous (2013) cycle high of $1,200 so yeah if it plays out the same a $50k+ candle may happen.  As more and more sophisticated buyers have come into the market I have become skeptical that Bitcoin will get the collapse in price that normally follows these runs, but until it plays out differently, I'm going to assume the trend will repeat.  

6 28 21.png

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30 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

 

Bitcoin is staying in the $30K-$40k range.  MACD on the Daily chart has turned positive.  Thanks to China's mining ban the bitcoin hashrate has plummeted along with the price.  Sad for the Chinese - good for the rest of the world - Bitcoin is trading at a discount and mining has become easier - it won't last.

We will definitely be getting some earth shattering candles in terms of size.  In the 2017 bull run there were candles that were over 3x the previous (2013) cycle high of $1,200 so yeah if it plays out the same a $50k+ candle may happen.  As more and more sophisticated buyers have come into the market I have become skeptical that Bitcoin will get the collapse in price that normally follows these runs, but until it plays out differently, I'm going to assume the trend will repeat.  

6 28 21.png

The volume profile is heavy over the last week in the 35K-37K range.  I expect some of those buyers will want out when the price returns because I'm sure there are some that didnt like the last shakedown.  If that volume is light because those are mostly long term holders then it will go fairly rapidly.  If they are nervous holders, it will take a while to absorb the volume and price may step back a bit.

I wasnt very bullish a month ago, but I'm starting to give this a 50/50 chance to at least explore some nice profit level runs.  Just breaking out of the 30-40K range might change the narrative to put this correction in the rear view mirror.  The weekly and monthly TA is terrible, however, I'm seeing the shorter time frames lead upwards.  The heavy selling has really tapered off.  Combined with very attractive prices, I'm getting cautiously optimistic.  I'm waiting to see what happens at 35-37K before I increase my position size.  Right now I'm buying every dip.

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22 hours ago, MQB said:

I am calling for another guru @automatic to confirm this.

Pleeeeeeeeease!

ps noticed the assists/turnover ratio disappeared, which means all comments are of equal value?

First things first - past performance does not guarantee future results.

Having said that, current setup does resemble 2013/2014.  If the history were to repeat itself, and assuming that the stock market doesn't tank in the meantime, then I would expect a choppy but sustained ascent back into high-50s/low60s followed by a brief (lasting weeks rather than months) and violent breakout to 100k+.  

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5 hours ago, Plikk said:

Tether FUD makes me cringe every single time. I have been fighting many different variants of Tether FUD for years now, and every single time it comes back with even more far-fetched 'problems'. It's a complete non-issue.

The main problem remains that the level of ignorance surrounding Tether is immense, hence the FUD can come back again and again in different forms. New investors or easily scared one can be influenced over and over. Easy target for whale games.

Genuinely curious. Can you help me understand what the FUD is? I am not referring to this specific video, but here's my understanding of the issue: 

  • USDT is backed by a significant corporate notes collateral. This is admitted by Tether.
  • The concern, real or not, raised by the Fed is simple. Because Tether is not providing any kind of transparency on the type of corporate debt it owns, it is unclear if those corporate notes are able to service the debt when there is a significant number of people looking to redeem USDT into USD (a bank run in the event of a short term credit issue in the crypto markets)
  • Furthermore, there is a concern that Covid 19 put a significant pressure on a larger number of companies across the world and it is likely that this corporate debt isn't liquid enough anymore. 

USDC appears to be better at an initial glance, but there isn't a 100% transparency there either - https://f.hubspotusercontent00.net/hubfs/6778953/USDCAttestationReports/2021-Circle-internet-financial-attestation-april-2021.pdf

US Dollars held in custody accounts are the total balances in accounts held by the Company at federally insured US depository institutions and in approved investments on behalf of the USDC holders at the Report Date

I certainly haven't been able to find what % of the collateral is backed by these approved investments. Hopefully it's a list that has been approved by the U.S. Treasury, seeing as Circle is a U.S. based company.

From the Boston Federal Reserve President - "The reason I talked about tether and stablecoins is if you look at their portfolio, it basically looks like a portfolio of a prime money market fund but may be riskier. We actually had a stablecoin that ran into financial difficulties last week. Tether, as you highlighted, has a number of assets that, during the pandemic, the spread got quite wide on those assets. The Fed intervened in order to make sure that short-term credit markets continued to operate. "

He obviously didn't call out the stable coin in question, because that would likely be enough to crash the markets. But something did already go wrong. That's concerning and should not be dismissed away as FUD. Losing trust over stable coins can quickly unravel into losing trust about crypto by the general public. It's one thing to avoid over-regulation crypto and I'm all for that. But stable coins, by representing the USD, need to be held to a higher transparency standard IMO. 

 

Edit: For companies servicing public blockchains, where the whole point is that all transactions are visible, centralized USD stable coin issuers sure seem to be opaque about the quality of collateral backing these coins. Not referring to programmatic stable coins. I don't get why the level of transparency expected from blockchain companies isn't expected from Tether, Circle, etc.

Edited by Ripley
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33 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Genuinely curious. Can you help me understand what the FUD is? I am not referring to this specific video, but here's my understanding of the issue: 

  • USDT is backed by a significant corporate notes collateral. This is admitted by Tether.
  • The concern, real or not, raised by the Fed is simple. Because Tether is not providing any kind of transparency on the type of corporate debt it owns, it is unclear if those corporate notes are able to service the debt when there is a significant number of people looking to redeem USDT into USD (a bank run in the event of a short term credit issue in the crypto markets)
  • Furthermore, there is a concern that Covid 19 put a significant pressure on a larger number of companies across the world and it is likely that this corporate debt isn't liquid enough anymore. 

USDC appears to be better at an initial glance, but there isn't a 100% transparency there either - https://f.hubspotusercontent00.net/hubfs/6778953/USDCAttestationReports/2021-Circle-internet-financial-attestation-april-2021.pdf

US Dollars held in custody accounts are the total balances in accounts held by the Company at federally insured US depository institutions and in approved investments on behalf of the USDC holders at the Report Date

I certainly haven't been able to find what % of the collateral is backed by these approved investments. Hopefully it's a list that has been approved by the U.S. Treasury, seeing as Circle is a U.S. based company.

From the Boston Federal Reserve President - "The reason I talked about tether and stablecoins is if you look at their portfolio, it basically looks like a portfolio of a prime money market fund but may be riskier. We actually had a stablecoin that ran into financial difficulties last week. Tether, as you highlighted, has a number of assets that, during the pandemic, the spread got quite wide on those assets. The Fed intervened in order to make sure that short-term credit markets continued to operate. "

He obviously didn't call out the stable coin in question, because that would likely be enough to crash the markets. But something did already go wrong. That's concerning and should not be dismissed away as FUD. Losing trust over stable coins can quickly unravel into losing trust about crypto by the general public. It's one thing to avoid over-regulation crypto and I'm all for that. But stable coins, by representing the USD, need to be held to a higher transparency standard IMO. 

 

Edit: For companies servicing public blockchains, where the whole point is that all transactions are visible, centralized USD stable coin issuers sure seem to be opaque about the quality of collateral backing these coins. Not referring to programmatic stable coins. I don't get why the level of transparency expected from blockchain companies isn't expected from Tether, Circle, etc.

There are issues anywhere you put a loupe, gobal economy is FUBAR. Tether is probably not more fraudulent than the average bank. Especially after all the attention it has gotten, they had to clear their books and come clean. 
 

The point is, Tether will not be the cause of a crypto market implosion, the rest of the economic system will. As soon as the stock market collapses, and it will sure enough, i’m out. 
 

The powers that be control and have sublime insights into the current economic climate and influences. They will use this to their own advantage only. Most crypto FUD is systematically put in place to push the market a certain direction and wont impact the market for a sustained period of time. 
 

Key is to stay ahead and watch out for all the signs an economic collpase is near, and IMO it is very near. It wouldn’t surprise me that it converges with a crypto bubble top EOY as peak euphoria hits the global markets. Then I want to be mostly in fiat, not now. 

Edited by Plikk
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The TETHER fud is not bullshit. It is REAL. It's only a moment of when. My Bank's research department have highlighted that the commercial paper that is part of the reserves used to back USDT are not accounted for. What I mean by that are that it's unanimous by the dealers who operate in the CP space have never ever seen the inflows TETHER claim. 

The silver lining is that there's much better alternatives to USDT than ever. 

The industry needs exchanges to move away from USDT as much as possible to prevent a black Swan event that could cause unprecedented damage, albeit short to many of the highly traded currency pairs. 

You could easily see when TETHER is found out prices could instantly collapse 50 to 90% in a single session before recovering. 

Edited by NMNR
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4 minutes ago, NMNR said:

The TETHER fud is not bullshit. It is REAL. It's only a moment of when. My Bank's research department have highlighted that the commercial paper that is part of the reserves used to back USDT are not accounted for. What I mean by that are that it's unanimous by the dealers who operate in the CP space have never ever seen the inflows TETHER claim. 

The silver lining is that there's much better alternatives to USDT than ever. 

The industry needs exchanges to move away from USDT as much as possible to prevent a black Swan event that could called unprecedented damage, albeit short to many of the highly traded currency pairs. 

Or in other words if it says Pegged to USD it must be Pegged to USD not to equivalent. Otherwise it looks like drivative to me.

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1 minute ago, xrp-nuke said:

Or in other words if it says Pegged to USD it must be Pegged to USD not to equivalent. Otherwise it looks like drivative to me.

There isn't a problem if tether isn't backed entirely by USD as long as the liabilities are matched. The problem is that they aren't proven to be. I believe 50% of Tethers reserves are commercial paper...if you do the maths you'll find out that TETHER are increasingly and significantly short to match their liabilities. 

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9 hours ago, automatic said:

First things first - past performance does not guarantee future results.

Having said that, current setup does resemble 2013/2014.  If the history were to repeat itself, and assuming that the stock market doesn't tank in the meantime, then I would expect a choppy but sustained ascent back into high-50s/low60s followed by a brief (lasting weeks rather than months) and violent breakout to 100k+.  

@Eric123thoughts on this one?

I'm more in the camp of those who see the FED always choosing the direction of inflation, i.e. print more money to keep the stock market propped up. Too many retirees depend on it in the US.

(I'd even go as far and say that the FED will walk back their "thinking about thinking about talking about talking about potentially maybe at some point tapering".  We'll see in August, but given CPI will come down from it's YoY distorted high, they'll have a reason to state that there's not enough inflation according to their numbers. They might raise 0.25%, but it won't be next year.)

Again, always keep in mind that the markets are not a reflection of the real economy.

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8 hours ago, Plikk said:

Key is to stay ahead and watch out for all the signs an economic collpase is near, and IMO it is very near. It wouldn’t surprise me that it converges with a crypto bubble top EOY as peak euphoria hits the global markets. Then I want to be mostly in fiat, not now. 

@Eric123thoughts on this one?

I'm more in the camp of those who see the FED always choosing the direction of inflation, i.e. print more money to keep the stock market propped up. Too many retirees depend on it in the US.

(I'd even go as far and say that the FED will walk back their "thinking about thinking about talking about talking about potentially maybe at some point tapering".  We'll see in August, but given CPI will come down from it's YoY distorted high, they'll have a reason to state that there's not enough inflation according to their numbers. They might raise 0.25%, but it won't be next year.)

Again, always keep in mind that the markets are not a reflection of the real economy.

 

@Plikk When you say you want to be in fiat when SHTF, this assumes a certain amount of trust in fiat itself, which is a bit of a contradiction to an economic collapse. Given how leveraged the banks are, fiat is not safe there, too. FDIC insurance only covers so much and if really FDIC gets triggered, the FED will have to step in, which means markets go up again. It was similar here in Switzerland in '08. The local FDIC equivalent had CHF 5 billion available, but would've needed CHF 60b to pay out all bank account holders if they had let the banks deleverage and subsequently go bust.

You can stay in actual paper cash, but that has its own risks.

Edited by Nat99
quoted wrong comment, corrected typos
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