Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

[NMNR]

39 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

I think that:

a.) We see 25-27k before after todays deat cross

Or

b.) We see another yet bounce from  30k and slow recovery towards outumn/winter

Alts gonna suffer, they already do.

Usually daily death cross is followed by a bit more down, and than starts slowily moving up towards golden cross.

 

Basically you aren't sure. What you're saying is equivalent of walking out your door and seeing cast in the sky and saying it might be dry or it might rain lol. 

The whole death cross narrative is being marketed EVERYWHERE. I swear, the cryptomarket speaks all of this into existence haha. 

There is enough evidence to support that we won't see BTC fall below $30k imo. I'm not sure there's evidence of even implying the death cross would cause that either. 

This is just a sideways market at the moment.

 

[Eric123]

Bitcoin's price has been moving sideways in a $30k-$40k range for nearly a month.  Bollinger Bands are flat.  

Still waiting on the BGC (big green candle) which by the way will turn everyone now panicking (over the death cross) into FOMO buyers.

15 hours ago, Nat99 said:

@Eric123at the current sub 80cent prices for XRP, I imagine you're a buyer, right?

Yes, I would be making daily purchases to average in on my favorite coins at these levels.  XRP especially.

@Nat99 also thanks for posing the staking video, I hope they win on the staking lawsuit.  

 

[Julian_Williams]

11 hours ago, Troote said:

It's going to be a sh*t summer for holders. Hopefully the anticipated and miraculous recovery is not the 2021 version of 2018's Chinese New Year... the similarities in mentality and behaviours are disconcerting even if the narrative itself has changed.

My first thoughts were that this is an astute observation, my second that it is a wrong observation. 

I would liken the Chinese New Year mania to the Elon Musk mania. Both are examples of people extrapolating macro trends from micro events that are really just noise that affects volatility a lot.  The analysts (Alessio and Block chain backer) who are saying we are not in a bear market are pointing to previous cycles, and showing pull backs of 50 - 65% are normal events in bull cycles, and that this bull cycle is following similar patterns/fractals to previous bull cycles.  (Alessio has just yesterday posted video showing a disturbing difference).

There always is a risk associated to holding.  Well done those that sold some of their stock some weeks ago.  I hope I will not regret holding through this bearish period.  My risk personal risk assessment remains the same, I will go on holding and waiting for a resurgence and an alt season that will take XRP to new ATHs.  To my way of thinking the balance of risk is that I have a high probability of making a lot of money by holding, and a smaller probability of losing a lot less money if I hold.

 

[Parabolic]

4 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

My first thoughts were that this is an astute observation, my second that it is a wrong observation. 

I would liken the Chinese New Year mania to the Elon Musk mania. Both are examples of people extrapolating macro trends from micro events that are really just noise that affects volatility a lot.  The analysts (Alessio and Block chain backer) who are saying we are not in a bear market are pointing to previous cycles, and showing pull backs of 50 - 65% are normal events in bull cycles, and that this bull cycle is following similar patterns/fractals to previous bull cycles.  (Alessio has just yesterday posted video showing a disturbing difference).

There always is a risk associated to holding.  Well done those that sold some of their stock some weeks ago.  I hope I will not regret holding through this bearish period.  My risk personal risk assessment remains the same, I will go on holding and waiting for a resurgence and an alt season that will take XRP to new ATHs.  To my way of thinking the balance of risk is that I have a high probability of making a lot of money by holding, and a smaller probability of losing a lot less money if I hold.

 

No matter how i look at it, it will reach 14 then 21 based on my analysis. 

Would love to share my chart but today my laptop broke down. I would describe it briefly in words then. 

In previous bull run there's 3 big impulses leading to final top, we're at the first one right now, and already experienced the max pain and backtested it. It can only go up from here, downside won't breach 0.75, any dips reaching that level or dropped below it will be bought back quickly, making it look like a wick. 

Timeline wise, it could be any day now because we already did what we had to do, it's either it shoot up now or more waiting game for consolidation. 

If consolidation, somewhere between sep to Oct should end. Otherwise, next year early Jan is the last date we look forward to. Any later than that without significant upside I'll pull out. 

But trust me, we're all gonna make it, look at my name you'll understand. 

[Troote]

10 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

I would liken the Chinese New Year mania to the Elon Musk mania. Both are examples of people extrapolating macro trends from micro events that are really just noise that affects volatility a lot.  The analysts (Alessio and Block chain backer) who are saying we are not in a bear market are pointing to previous cycles, and showing pull backs of 50 - 65% are normal events in bull cycles, and that this bull cycle is following similar patterns/fractals to previous bull cycles.  (Alessio has just yesterday posted video showing a disturbing difference).

The issue with BCBacker (no idea about the other guy) is manifold. First he makes projections and never revisits them when he is wrong. He rubs and rubs and rubs his successes for sure, not his bad calls. If you look videos from him that are 1 or 2 months old and compare to the chart, not only will you find that he was wrong, but that he even contradicts himself. He discards anything and everything that goes against his narrative, including himself. He explained scenarios where he would sell all his XRPs. Well, these scenarios played out and he has sold nothing, he is still bullish.

Second, if you look very closely at his fractals, you will find the same market structures leading to completely opposite outcomes. He likes saying "we saw this in year xyz and we had a moonshot right after it", but truth is - you can find easily the same thing that resulted in a crash. And obviously he never mentions these, ever. Add to that the "past performance disclaimer" and there you go.

I have stopped following his content because to me, BCBacker is just not credible and, the nail in the coffin, his headlines make me puke. He is unable to do real TA - analyzing liquidity, volume and deriving market trends based on pure liquidity hunt. He just copies old charts he likes to drool over and pastes them over current price action. That is not TA. For instance, at what point does he compare indicators such as volume, RSI and whatnot to simply make sure the 2 charts he puts on top of each other share similar characteristics? Never.

I respect the fact that he exposes himself. He produces content through hard work, he managed to build a big YouTube channel and that makes him respectable. But that does not make him credible. I can think of a lot of people with huge following who are spewing garbage all day long. *cough*politics*cough*. 

The simple fact is that we are in uncharted territory. One thing is clear though: the momentum is gone, the buying frenzy is gone, newcomers have been burnt, the remaining crypto community is divided. This will take months to play out, one way or another, with a very uncertain outcome. If we had a few alt coins mooning here and there, I would be more bullish because it would imply people are still playing the game, but the market is just stalled. Long term holders may still be in the game, but it's not people who are crypto-savvy who create pumps. It's the financially illiterate common folks falling for impulses sparked by whales. And these common folks have just gone.

One last thing I will say. Just look at the ETH chart since inception without a log chart. That is a proxy for alts. Look at this and explain to me why or how, despite this massive blow-off top, that market is still bullish. Then explain to me, how ETH can so clearly be in bearish territory and, somehow, other coins such as XRP are not. Then remember 2018 and how everyone ended up comforting each other into holding. It doesn't matter to me what are the reasons or the characteristics of the narratives that led people to hold in the bear market. If this is a bear market today, the exact same mistakes by the exact same people in the exact same circles/ecochambers just keep happening again. I wonder why...

Anyway. I can't tell you what to do, but I hope you'll come out of this winning.

Edited June 19, 2021 by Troote

[Neurotoxin]

3 hours ago, Troote said:

He explained scenarios where he would sell all his XRPs. Well, these scenarios played out and he has sold nothing, he is still bullish.

 

I gotta say, I found odd that he said if BTC had an ABC correction that he might reconsider and sell the stack. BTC then went on to do an abc (I think?) and he didn’t sell the stack. Idk if I’m quoting him right, taking things out of context or just plain wrong but I think that that’s what happened and he didn’t rlly go through with it. Idk, haven’t watched his latest video and don’t remember his previous ones by heart, but I do see what you mean when you say he’d contradicted himself. 
 

Edit: I wanna add that I’m not necessarily bashing BCB, I actually like his analysis and while we are ALL biased, I find his analysis to be very wholesome and not just a look at the charts confirming only what he wants to see. He does look at a lot of different markets and takes many different factors into consideration and that’s the biggest part of why I like his analysis overall. I know, take a shot for every time I said analysis. 

Edited June 20, 2021 by Neurotoxin
It’s there.

[Neurotoxin]

Oh look, were in page 702. Does that mean we moon soon? Or does that mean we’re gonna crash further? 
 

 

 

*I’m referring to the .702 fib, it’s just a joke* 

[xrp-nuke]

10 hours ago, Parabolic said:

It can only go up from here, downside won't breach 0.75, any dips reaching that level or dropped below it will be bought back quickly, making it look like a wick. 

Really?

[xrp-nuke]

16 hours ago, NMNR said:

Basically you aren't sure. What you're saying is equivalent of walking out your door and seeing cast in the sky and saying it might be dry or it might rain lol. 

You understanding absolutely wrong, I say it shower or drizzle, but its going to be rain. Re-read.

16 hours ago, NMNR said:

There is enough evidence to support that we won't see BTC fall below $30k imo. I'm not sure there's evidence of even implying the death cross would cause that either

So far the downtrend is evident.

[Julian_Williams]

13 hours ago, Troote said:

The issue with BCBacker (no idea about the other guy) is manifold. First he makes projections and never revisits them when he is wrong. He rubs and rubs and rubs his successes for sure, not his bad calls. If you look videos from him that are 1 or 2 months old and compare to the chart, not only will you find that he was wrong, but that he even contradicts himself. He discards anything and everything that goes against his narrative, including himself. He explained scenarios where he would sell all his XRPs. Well, these scenarios played out and he has sold nothing, he is still bullish.

Second, if you look very closely at his fractals, you will find the same market structures leading to completely opposite outcomes. He likes saying "we saw this in year xyz and we had a moonshot right after it", but truth is - you can find easily the same thing that resulted in a crash. And obviously he never mentions these, ever. Add to that the "past performance disclaimer" and there you go.

I have stopped following his content because to me, BCBacker is just not credible and, the nail in the coffin, his headlines make me puke. He is unable to do real TA - analyzing liquidity, volume and deriving market trends based on pure liquidity hunt. He just copies old charts he likes to drool over and pastes them over current price action. That is not TA. For instance, at what point does he compare indicators such as volume, RSI and whatnot to simply make sure the 2 charts he puts on top of each other share similar characteristics? Never.

I respect the fact that he exposes himself. He produces content through hard work, he managed to build a big YouTube channel and that makes him respectable. But that does not make him credible. I can think of a lot of people with huge following who are spewing garbage all day long. *cough*politics*cough*. 

The simple fact is that we are in uncharted territory. One thing is clear though: the momentum is gone, the buying frenzy is gone, newcomers have been burnt, the remaining crypto community is divided. This will take months to play out, one way or another, with a very uncertain outcome. If we had a few alt coins mooning here and there, I would be more bullish because it would imply people are still playing the game, but the market is just stalled. Long term holders may still be in the game, but it's not people who are crypto-savvy who create pumps. It's the financially illiterate common folks falling for impulses sparked by whales. And these common folks have just gone.

One last thing I will say. Just look at the ETH chart since inception without a log chart. That is a proxy for alts. Look at this and explain to me why or how, despite this massive blow-off top, that market is still bullish. Then explain to me, how ETH can so clearly be in bearish territory and, somehow, other coins such as XRP are not. Then remember 2018 and how everyone ended up comforting each other into holding. It doesn't matter to me what are the reasons or the characteristics of the narratives that led people to hold in the bear market. If this is a bear market today, the exact same mistakes by the exact same people in the exact same circles/ecochambers just keep happening again. I wonder why...

Anyway. I can't tell you what to do, but I hope you'll come out of this winning.

you make some good points @Troote  and I like this phrase which is chilling to read  "Then remember 2018 and how everyone ended up comforting each other into holding."

In the end investment is speculation on how the future will unfold.  There are alternative narratives and BlockChain Backer is doing a reasonable job presenting the narrative that these sorts of pullback are common in bull markets (I do not blame him for some confabulation, our brains are programmed to confabulate).  Alessio is way more experienced and knowledgeable.  He defines what a switch to a bear market would look like and says it has not happened (yet) and he is not expecting it.

You are doing a creditable job putting the side that says we are already in a bear market.  I guess we will see who is right in coming weeks and months.

I comfort myself that XRP have a very high chance of coming out of a settlement with SEC that will give them more clarity, and that their strategy is basically sound.  I have well known concerns about BG selling so much stock into bear market which makes me think he should have been moved out by now.

Here is Alessio's latest video

 

Edited June 20, 2021 by Julian_Williams

[xrp-nuke]

On 6/18/2021 at 9:12 PM, xrp-nuke said:

0.71 and downward, than there is some resistance in between 0.7 - 0.65.

Patience.

Why noone appreciates the buy opportunity advice at lower prices 🤣🤣🤣

At the same time everyone more than happy to HODL on decreasing price and appreciate that "soon tomorroe next week we will pump"

😁👍

[Trentsteel]

Bargain bucket sale going on, buy now and save a little just in case of another bargain bucket sale, later 

NFA

[Trentsteel]

5 hours ago, Trentsteel said:

Bargain bucket sale going on, buy now and save a little just in case of another bargain bucket sale, later 

NFA

Wow, it’s a coin that never stops giving 😬 Fill your boots? Make your own mind up 🙉

[Neurotoxin]

7 hours ago, xrp-nuke said:

Why noone appreciates the buy opportunity advice at lower prices 🤣🤣🤣

At the same time everyone more than happy to HODL on decreasing price and appreciate that "soon tomorroe next week we will pump"

😁👍

Hey some time ago we dipped to 30k and then we pumped back to around ~38-39k and I said it was a good selling opportunity for those who bought the dip at 30k, nobody thanked me either 😂. In fact, I got told they were holding out till 40-42k iirc, but I’m not gonna fault him for that, we all have our goals. For me it was a good enough percentage gain. 
 

We gave this advice out for free, I personally don’t expect anything in return. 

[Parabolic]

21 hours ago, xrp-nuke said:

Really?

As predicted. Wicked below the stated level and now stay above it.