Jump to content

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


 Share

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, Xrpdude said:

@jMusic @MQB @BluKoo @Trentsteel

Maybe we should allow those with bearish opinions and healthy TA scepticism to have a voice afterall. Without drawing a single triangle I predicted this drop to $32k (a day late) based on intuition. You guys need to accept the fact that chart gurus know just as much as you or I (diddly squat!) Nobody can predict what's gonna happen, common sense tells me we're in a bear market, I would say 18 months from now we'll see amazing buying opportunity. For now I would not touch anything. XRP might be a good buy circa 20 c if it goes that low in the next three months, but don't expect a big pump based on the lawsuit the longer time goes on. 

I agree you should be allowed everything and more, now start your own thread about how charting is crap and gut feelings ect are the way to go👍🏻 I Might even have a peruse of it.🤪

anyhow, I’m still of the opinion the charts have merit for a bounce back and my gut feeling more so..... call me a hopeless romantic or should the be hapless 😬

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Julian_Williams said:

BTC is dumping some more.

Yes, this isn't a good sign. It's going faster than I thought it would; I can see us dipping below 30k soon, when that happens then we'll dump harder because we've breached another psychological milestone. 

guys - no chance BTC recovers to ATH for years to come imho

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Trentsteel said:

I agree you should be allowed everything and more, now start your own thread about how charting is crap and gut feelings ect are the way to go👍🏻 I Might even have a peruse of it.🤪

anyhow, I’m still of the opinion the charts have merit for a bounce back and my gut feeling more so..... call me a hopeless romantic or should the be hapless 😬

Do you think Eric123 is right then, and we're going to BTC = $400k this cycle? I honestly cannot believe anyone would be convinced that is going to happen; there's zero chance imho. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I updated a very bearish prediction last night that is based on a corrective line fractal that I simply copied from the 2017 market top and laid over top of the current chart.  They match up frighteningly well once you assume that this cycle did not have a blowoff top.  In fact, it predicted this latest breakdown.  I plotted that line not because I believe its true or the most logical outcome, but to show myself the possibility that the market top is in and the bullish narrative might be wrong.   There are an overwhelming number of other indicators, but this one really answered my question for me.  At that point, the risk to reward became too high for me and I pulled the rest of my money out of the market.   

Now, I have the problem of not wanting to miss a major pulse up, or worse yet, a restart of the bull market.  So, I'm looking for an opportunity to jump back in, and I cant be too bearish or I'll miss it.  Here is a more realistic possibility that I see potentially unfolding. 

Frankly, I was slow to react to the correction in April because I was in disbelief based on the bull market narrative that this is "normal".  I tried to fit a Wycoff accumulation pattern into the price action when it was really a Wycoff distribution.  Well, I learned a lot about the Wycoff accumulation during that period :( .  The biggest take away is that distribution is into rising prices and accumulation is into lowering prices.  This latest base period is starting to match up with a Wycoff accumulation.  If true, this latest dip may be the latter phase of the pattern - eventhough Wycoff's are historically very long cycles.

In this case, we may take out the 30K low, but if you are hodling, dont lose heart.  I believe the best time to spring out of the mess would be at the death cross which I predict will happen around Jun 15.  At that point, I believe market sentiment will be extremely fearful and the best time to keep the order books light.  There is precedence for this.  I'll be looking to take a big position on a reversal sign down here.

image.thumb.png.b4bd96897b0cf3a7c39619424a4f131b.png

image.png.2f2273c89e180031cc85f1d017b36d6a.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Xrpdude said:

Yes, this isn't a good sign. It's going faster than I thought it would; I can see us dipping below 30k soon, when that happens then we'll dump harder because we've breached another psychological milestone. 

guys - no chance BTC recovers to ATH for years to come imho

Once the death cross occurs, history shows this is true.  That doesnt mean price can not increase, but ATH's are tough to come by after this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BarnBuilder said:

Once the death cross occurs, history shows this is true.  That doesnt mean price can not increase, but ATH's are tough to come by after this.

There is another winter upon us I'm afraid, yes we'll see green days, I could see us going to $27k with a rebound to $31k then another sharp fall. Nothing I'm seeing suggests you'll miss a big pump e.g. like $10k +++ so personally I'm out of the market for 18 months until everything is in a deep sale. I'm not a trader so I'll use DeFi through the bear market to increase my stack instead - beats money in the banks on 0.01% interest or whatever it currently is. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bitcoin's price has broke below the previous support lines so I redrew the chart with the remaining lines.  Bollinger Bands have broke to the downside and are widening.  Bitcoin is still caught in this downtrend.  (tax loss selling?  perhaps, because Trump said it's a "scam"? eh Because of the Colonial pipeline seizure? doubtful)  For whatever reason it doesn't really matter, I wish I had the cash to buy more. 

11 minutes ago, Xrpdude said:

Do you think Eric123 is right then, and we're going to BTC = $400k this cycle? I honestly cannot believe anyone would be convinced that is going to happen; there's zero chance imho.

Yup $400k this cycle.  

6 8 21.png

Edited by Eric123
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Eric123 said:

Bitcoin's price has broke below the previous support lines so I redrew the chart with the remaining lines.  Bollinger Bands have broke to the downside and are widening.  Bitcoin is still caught in this downtrend.  (tax loss selling?  perhaps, because Trump said it's a "scam"? eh)  For whatever reason it doesn't really matter, I wish I had the cash to buy more. 

Yup $400k this cycle.  

You do remember you were predicting a big breakout back in January 2019 right? Sorry to be harsh, but 400k??? Seriously???!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Trentsteel said:

I agree you should be allowed everything and more, now start your own thread about how charting is crap and gut feelings ect are the way to go👍🏻 I Might even have a peruse of it.🤪

anyhow, I’m still of the opinion the charts have merit for a bounce back and my gut feeling more so..... call me a hopeless romantic or should the be hapless 😬

TA does involve pure sentiment.  I believe market makers trade purely off of our fear and greed.  The more a chart looks like it should do something, the better the opportunity they have to confuse, and fool us and shake out the weak hands.

It is hard to discuss TA on a TA thread based on pure sentiment, however, it has its place as long as its respectful.  I think TA has to include everyone's perspective along with the charts.  I value gut instinct eventhough from the TA perspective is difficult to quantify and chart.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have to reach capitulation of the Fearful, and then bounce (exhaust the sellers). Of course if we do not reach a capitulation, and as XRPDude points out fear can lead to chains of selling events as people get their stop losses wiped out, it can turn into a bear market.  I am not believing that is the narrative we are following, but I suppose I must recognise it could turn into that narrative if it goes on dropping for long enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Do you think $400k is too conservative? 

Staying on topic, but away from the charts for now and just focussing on the price: no I don't think $400k is too conservative for 20 years+ from now, but yes I think it's unrealistic to see BTC this cycle. A few things to note: with the Corona Virus: quantative easing, impact on global trade, business and financial stability I think nobody would argue we're in unprecedented modern times. So to compare this cycle purely with others is an act of futility, to point to previous charts - like in 2013, when the market cap was comparatively tiny, and say "look! BTC dropped 50% then only to bounce on to ATH" is again an act of immature reasoning. So here's my thinking: this cycle my target was $80-100k for BTC but anywhere near those levels and I would have been extremely nervous in other words on the look-out for a crash. I think what really pushed BTC up and helped it A LOT was the hopium and exposure from Elon Musk (50 + M followers), total mega star, one of the most recognised faces on the planet and the world's second richest person. Now the sensible among us would agree that his tweets had an initial positive impact on price, I'm not sure what would have happened if he didn't get involved, similarly his latter tweets were the kiss of death and we saw real negative price action because of them. What I think happened is the monumental global efforts to get BTC and the overall Crypto MC to where it was shouldn't be underestimated - I actually think that anyone claiming to be early at this stage is totally wrong, we're not early anymore - bitcoin is a household name, everyone knows about it (not everyone buys it though). So when the price started tanking I ask myself - what sort of event will get that frenzy going again, what's going to really generate the hype needed to push BTC back to ATH now?? NOTHING greater than a man like Elon Musk pushing it - that's for sure! Trust me - the average working class / normal person will look at the 50% drop and they'll be thinking damn, I wish I never invested 1 month ago, or something similar. Nobody in their right mind is buying BTC at these levels. Or at least nobody with a level head, some obviously still are... but the fact is we're in bear territory now and I don't expect ATH until the next halving etc.  

Edited by Xrpdude
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, XrpWave said:

I think we reached a bottom here 

from now on UP UP UP ...

I started buying at 32K.  Small size.   I'm adding slightly larger sizes at 31.5K and 30.25K based on those long wicks.  I'll put a stop loss on each one of those at 10%.  I watched the bulls defend the lower support line for 2 long weekends as the shorts attacked.  My trade setup was when they pulled the bid and let price drop below the support.  They are confident they can hold it, now they are looking to set up the up move with a final capitulation shakeout that looks so gnarly we all shake.  If I'm wrong, we'll have more to talk about at 20K.  I expect to take a drawdown on this initial purchase but I have to start accumulating some time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.