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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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There's a lot of talk about BTC, but essentially no talk about what is BTC's larger market and where is that going.  Its a piece of some larger market which is a piece of a larger market etc.  My first impression was that crypto was a global, independent hedge against the consequences of financial mismanagement that seem to be at our doorstep here in the US.   As I try to define crypto's larger market (represented in large by BTC), the best I can to do is consider it as part of a broader global, speculative investments market.  Now I'm wondering how crypto is correlated with that broader market.  My sense is that the broader global, speculative investment market will influence BTC, but BTC will not necessarily move it.  Covid drove all the speculative investment markets down and they all recovered together.  However, none of BTC's pullbacks seem to have affected the stock markets.

I believe the bullish narrative of the final BTC rally and blow off top will occur under one condition -  the larger investment markets continue to also grow bullishly.  All of BTC's history is within a broader speculative bull market that's been on a steady climb for 11 years.  Every volatile dip has been within a broader bullish investment sentiment that has supported its rebound to newer highs.  BTC has no history outside of a bullish market.

The lower chart below is BTC after hitting the ATH in March.  The upper chart is the DJIA hitting its most recent ATH on May 10.  I dont know if the "broader speculative market" is truly represented by the DJIA, but its an important data point within it.  The rebound on the DJIA is at the .702 and appears to be struggling to get above it.  This is a warning sign to me that the broader market smart money may be starting to sell as BTC showed us in March.  

I'm starting to look at the following ETF's (DOG,SDOW).  I know nobody wants to hear this, but I think this is an important item to discuss.

 

image.png.616ae5ed0a6f3fcb2cd0fb6f8255e656.png

image.png.9186f3108631379a09f255ec179e4f41.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, Plikk said:

I take that as a compliment. Optimists are generally more successful in life, especially in finance. 
 

It’s funny how after a red candle, the bears come out of hibernation and always feel the need to come here and ridicule others, especially technical analysts whom put valiable time and effort in showing the community what they see unfolding. 
 

I am done with this repeating and tiresome behaviour. No more TA from me in this thread, i’ll just use it to my own advantage as most do. 

Is this going to me?
I'm not really a bear, I'm more of the opinion that anything can happen and that's why I find people who see everything positive or everything negative rather funny.

I just wanted to say: don't be surprised if something happens. It's all within the realm of possibility, so relax.

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Posted (edited)

For all of you who follow Blockchain Backer, I really think his work is top notch.  He makes the assumption that the cycle hasn't been long enough and we didnt have a blow off top therefore its probably not over - he's not alone in this theory.  To believe that assumption I tried disprove it.  

The chart below (the bars are current prices) essentially does what BCB does but places the 2017 fractal's cycle top over BTC's current ATH like it was the cycle top.  Of course you can see the blowoff top is not present.  Unfortunately, they look very similar.

The current chart is also consistent with BCB's analysis that when the market tops you will know because the fib retracement will probably be to .702.  The retrace was to .702.  

image.png.56477b6fa44bd4082a1b44d4530d901a.png

 

The monthly RSI is also significantly different than the 2017 double cycle top.  In 2017 it only dipped from 94 to 86.  The current RSI is 67 which is lower than any other monthly RSI in a bull market (~71).

image.thumb.png.277157bc4701b3208d501623da49b24c.png

Finally, I think the death cross is a very high probability.  On average BTC needs to rise 700 points each day to about 60K to avoid it.  I analyzed BTC's history of the effect of the death cross.  Its hit or miss, but  I did find that the longer the bull run preceding the death cross, the worse the result.  The longest bull runs were 884, 733, and 430 days.  Additional drawdowns after crossing were as low as 55%, 30%, and 64%.   The current run is the 4th  longest at 381 days.  The drawdown from the point of crossing might not be as severe, but the 2017 cycle top correction predicts a current correction perhaps as low as 16K.

Finally, the failure to break out of symmetrical triangle on high volume increases the probability of a follow through to the downside. 

Maybe I will get lucky, but my ADA and XRP sure seem to be at risk with what I'm seeing with BTC.  

 

Edited by BarnBuilder
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If you bought at 50cents your hands are sweaty on the sell, if you bought under 10 cents it’s like listening to Jonny Logan “ what’s another year”

special call out to BnB and TRX for making this macro bear market more bearable 😂 

NFA 😎

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Tomorrow, Sunday, I think we'll see BTC touch $32k> based on pure guesses (but I've watched the charts everyday for four years - this is just intuition). Or for those of you that love pseudo science, it's cause I see increased ram usage on the network's GPU threads, which alings almost exactly with the third ama of the quantum delivery system. Therefore there's an increased probability of the data warehouse blockage of sell orders really pushing through last month's IDP Elliott waves, we've seen this lately because of lack of confidence in the dollar. That and all Scorpios be aware, this weekend holds something special in terms of a recurring dream and a well known childhood hiding place. 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, BarnBuilder said:

For all of you who follow Blockchain Backer, I really think his work is top notch.  He makes the assumption that the cycle hasn't been long enough and we didnt have a blow off top therefore its probably not over - he's not alone in this theory.  To believe that assumption I tried disprove it.  

The chart below (the bars are current prices) essentially does what BCB does but places the 2017 fractal's cycle top over BTC's current ATH like it was the cycle top.  Of course you can see the blowoff top is not present.  Unfortunately, they look very similar.

The current chart is also consistent with BCB's analysis that when the market tops you will know because the fib retracement will probably be to .702.  The retrace was to .702.  

image.png.56477b6fa44bd4082a1b44d4530d901a.png

 

The monthly RSI is also significantly different than the 2017 double cycle top.  In 2017 it only dipped from 94 to 86.  The current RSI is 67 which is lower than any other monthly RSI in a bull market (~71).

image.thumb.png.277157bc4701b3208d501623da49b24c.png

Finally, I think the death cross is a very high probability.  On average BTC needs to rise 700 points each day to about 60K to avoid it.  I analyzed BTC's history of the effect of the death cross.  Its hit or miss, but  I did find that the longer the bull run preceding the death cross, the worse the result.  The longest bull runs were 884, 733, and 430 days.  Additional drawdowns after crossing were as low as 55%, 30%, and 64%.   The current run is the 4th  longest at 381 days.  The drawdown from the point of crossing might not be as severe, but the 2017 cycle top correction predicts a current correction perhaps as low as 16K.

Finally, the failure to break out of symmetrical triangle on high volume increases the probability of a follow through to the downside. 

Maybe I will get lucky, but my ADA and XRP sure seem to be at risk with what I'm seeing with BTC.  

 

Just to make things funny in this dramma thread in 2013, BTC was dropping from mid April to 7th - 9th of July.

Yes, Just in July it additionally drop around 25% from June close, before to rebound.

It was not new low, just because in April BTC corrected more than 80%

On daily it seems we created LH 🥺

On hourly we broke 35.5, invalidating HL on hourly chart.

Fasten the sit belts!

P.S. not this weekend but next, it high possibility to see 28k and lower 🥺

Edited by xrp-nuke
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2 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Bitcoin's price keeps bumping it's head on the down trend line. Bollinger Bands continue to tighten. A convincing breakthrough is coming.  

6 5 2021.png

Break up or down sir? 

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