Jump to content

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


 Share

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, Plikk said:

Bearish patterns in a BTC bullmarket tend to break to the upside, has happened in previous bullmarkets and ever since 2020 we’ve seen multiple that bearish ascending wedges and head and shoulders breaking out to the upside. 
 

Unless we have moved out of the bullmarket without having clear evidence of this market cycle ending prematurely. 
 

Cautious note: Be careful with applying and relying on regular TA seen in stocks/metals/forex on crypto, crypto really asks for a special kind of mix in experience/past cycles/fractals/manipulative essence/gartner cycles etc. 

The TA is secondary to me.  I watch the price action then I step back and look at the charts.  The price action this weekend showed that their was fierce buying support at the bottom of that trend line.  The shorts threw a lot at that mark and failed.  That was bullish.  Those buyers then took advantage of shorts buying to cover and moved the price up and held key levels all the way.  But, why didnt the price keep going up?  That leaves me concerned.  While I dont know, I'm left to believe that the large money that defended the price against the shorts wanted to protect their interest, but werent willing to fight the short sellers to move the price up at this point.

The problem is that there is money to be made to the downside.  Big money.  Short sellers are helped in market corrections by fearful sellers.  In reality, the short sellers push the price down and then you see the real sellers finish their job as they panic sell and get liquidated.  If the short sellers manage to drive price below that support line, at some level it will trigger mass selling of speculators who have jumped in between 30-37K.   Short sellers are very powerful and, with all their leverage, they aim to drive price as low as they can.  And, they arent gone.

I dont predict price.  I formulate my personal risk/reward because I dont have to have a crystal ball to know for sure what BTC is going to do.  In theory, I either gain handsomely or I lose a little.  There are a lot of scenarios that can happen from here.  If you have any speculative money (not long term hodl money) in BTC then this pattern should be of great interest/concern to you.  It wont last long in this wedge, and the volatility could see many false breakouts or false selloffs.  Personally, I've brought 15% back into the market and I will bring another 50% in if we can break the upper trend line.  I will be one of those sellers (at a loss) if we can not hold that trendline because we wont be arguing bull/bear market at 24K prices.  Right now my money is cautiously long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Zerpple said:

Feel free to prove me wrong by pm'ing me the link to where ever they are coordinating these strategies ;)

Futures and options contracts routinely total in the hundreds of billions in crypto and many times that in all the other markets.  The same big money  writing those contracts routinely influences price to minimize their payout.  This has been going on forever.  I dont think they call each other up and discuss the plan.  They dont have to.  However, they are coordinating to the same goal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Read this if you want to get into the weeds.  Its very thorough, and analyzes the fundamentals of the BTC market versus TA.  It's interesting because it says that we are all wrong if we look at this market with a biased perspective.  Right now its a delicate balance, and the price has large implications at this point.

Short term holders are all under water and sold into the market.  They've started reaccumulating at these prices, however, if price continues to go down its a safe assumption they will turn back into sellers.  

Buried in the 2nd link is that the selling base was primarily Asia where deposits of BTC to those exchanges went exponential.  North American exchanges showed almost no effect on the selloff.  The BTC balance on those exchanges continued to follow a normal trend downward.  Too me, this is very bullish.  The FUD coming from the Chinese govt may have had a real impact, however, the worst of the selling may be over.

Long term holders didnt move.  The last several weeks show that they slightly added.  However, the price is approaching a level where historically they may sell to protect profit.  Again, the market is at a very critical price.

Note:  I only summarized how I read the article.  There are many dynamics to this market and the article is complex

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-on-chain-week-22-2021/

https://insights.glassnode.com/surveying-the-may-2021-sell-off/

Edited by BarnBuilder
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/31/2021 at 1:05 PM, BarnBuilder said:

Yes.  When I said this, I realized that I had read it without verifying the data myself.  I want to dig into this further because sellers start parking their money in stablecoin versus rotating into other cryptos, this would be a very bearish indicator.  The whole premise of alt-coin season is that investors rotate out of BTC and into alt coins so we see their prices go up.  We havent seen an alt coin season and my premise is that until BTC stabilizes and that stablecoin flows back into the market the gains will be difficult.  I must be honest though that I dont yet understand this chart so I have to learn more.  Thank You.

image.thumb.png.68c86983a97894b6f2f1d39f3ad72fea.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, BarnBuilder said:

The TA is secondary to me.  I watch the price action then I step back and look at the charts.  The price action this weekend showed that their was fierce buying support at the bottom of that trend line.  The shorts threw a lot at that mark and failed.  That was bullish.  Those buyers then took advantage of shorts buying to cover and moved the price up and held key levels all the way.  But, why didnt the price keep going up?  That leaves me concerned.  While I dont know, I'm left to believe that the large money that defended the price against the shorts wanted to protect their interest, but werent willing to fight the short sellers to move the price up at this point.

The problem is that there is money to be made to the downside.  Big money.  Short sellers are helped in market corrections by fearful sellers.  In reality, the short sellers push the price down and then you see the real sellers finish their job as they panic sell and get liquidated.  If the short sellers manage to drive price below that support line, at some level it will trigger mass selling of speculators who have jumped in between 30-37K.   Short sellers are very powerful and, with all their leverage, they aim to drive price as low as they can.  And, they arent gone.

I dont predict price.  I formulate my personal risk/reward because I dont have to have a crystal ball to know for sure what BTC is going to do.  In theory, I either gain handsomely or I lose a little.  There are a lot of scenarios that can happen from here.  If you have any speculative money (not long term hodl money) in BTC then this pattern should be of great interest/concern to you.  It wont last long in this wedge, and the volatility could see many false breakouts or false selloffs.  Personally, I've brought 15% back into the market and I will bring another 50% in if we can break the upper trend line.  I will be one of those sellers (at a loss) if we can not hold that trendline because we wont be arguing bull/bear market at 24K prices.  Right now my money is cautiously long.

Sounds good. Buying or selling the retest of a break-out is always a smart thing to do if you’re a trader :) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Plikk said:

Sounds good. Buying or selling the retest of a break-out is always a smart thing to do if you’re a trader :) 

Waiting on that retest is one of the most difficult things for me.  I  wait so long for the breakout and then  have to wait more with the additional fear of missing out.  I have to confess that I'll buy the breakout a lot of times and not wait for the back test.  It's a weakness.  What I've done to improve my discipline in those cases is just take a small initial position, and then add to it on the back test.  Often I will sell the initial breakout for a small profit and wait for the back test.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BarnBuilder said:

Waiting on that retest is one of the most difficult things for me.  I  wait so long for the breakout and then  have to wait more with the additional fear of missing out.  I have to confess that I'll buy the breakout a lot of times and not wait for the back test.  It's a weakness.  What I've done to improve my discipline in those cases is just take a small initial position, and then add to it on the back test.  Often I will sell the initial breakout for a small profit and wait for the back test.  

Also you could look hourly charts 1h/4h and RSI behaviour + volatility, pretty much works in days like we have now, but need sharp decision making and no greed (e.g. one more 0.01c oh one more time, oh it goes down but it will recover <- these swings in mood does not work)

Also on workdays I am hold 50-100% crypto, weekends cash, unless something will make me believe otherwise, some momentum.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well here we are again.  Bitcoin is moving sideways - The bollinger bands are tightening.  

All the real news is good

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/bitcoin-goldman-is-close-to-offering-bitcoin-to-its-richest-clients.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-asserts-bitcoin-investment-alternative-102500462.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bitwise-launches-first-crypto-industry-205229186.html

https://cointelegraph.com/news/nasdaq-listed-bitcoin-miners-urge-china-to-open-doors-to-green-mining

But all the headlines are FUD.

When reading any crypto news you have to weed though the noise (which is 99%)

The breakout is coming.  Big green candle incoming shortly.

6 2 2021.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Also on workdays I am hold 50-100% crypto, weekends cash, unless something will make me believe otherwise, some momentum.

I've toyed with this idea because the risk of the larger downward moves increases on the weekends.  I monitor the market 24/7 with alerts, but that's pretty disruptive.  The other problem is that it would cost me a lot of money to come out of the market and back in on the weekends, and ultimately I could miss a move I've waited a long time for.  But, the urge to pull money out on the weekends as a habit has been tempting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL, you can perish from this thread because you're spilling your garbage on the precious space.

You contribute nothing, Zero, zilch, NADA, goose egg.

Good-bye! Go concentrate on building your barn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.