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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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12 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Has everyone marked themselves safe from the crash???  Gonna give a pep talk today - seems like it's needed. 

The Bull Run is not over.  Nothing has changed.  Liquidity is low - There are not a lot of Bitcoin available to trade, conversely there is a lot of money out there.  Wild swings are to be expected. 

My price target for Bitcoin is still $400k in this run.

Look at the 2017 bull run. There were 5 drops over 30% during that run.

Jan 4 high 1,139- Jan 7 low 751-  Price drop 35%

March 10 high 1,350 - March 25 low 891 - Price drop 34%

May 25 high 2,760 - May 17 low 1,850 - Price drop 33%

June 11 high 2,967 - July 16 low $1,830 - Price drop 39%

Sept 2 high 4,488 - Sept 15 low 2,972 - Price drop 34%

This is why I've been writing that Bull Markets are much more stressful than Bear Markets.  You go from feeling like - I'm gonna be rich I never have to work again - to a week later thinking - I'm ruined I need to get a second job.  Many people get shaken out along the way and end up losing money.   

When this run is over if you held -  people will tell you how lucky you were to get Bitcoin at $30k or XRP at $1 as if, if they would have bought at those prices - they would have held till the high -  when the truth is they would have gotten shaken out a dozen times before the high. 

Buy low - hold - sell high - simple right?  Simple but not easy - like saying - all you have to do is swing the club (bat) and hit the ball.  Few people can actually do it.  

The advice I give to my friends is this-  Buy the Dips - Don't use Margin - Don't use stop losses - Don't sell.

Smartest post I've seen in a while on here. :)

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6 minutes ago, xrp_sea said:

Smartest post I've seen in a while on here. :)

Eric is the only value in this thread.

There are posters who post long wordy posts that sound good but they are wrong almost all the time, then there are the hystericals who ride the emotional roller-coaster with every correction.

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1 hour ago, NMNR said:

Yep, I've saved the spreadsheet. Pretty simple stuff either way. 

I'm not calling out @xrp-nukebut he does have the current hindsight in his favour so it has to argue on all front. But seeing how thus cycle has followed the previous cycle with subtle deviations I'm playing the patient game here. The easy route is saying "I told you so" and that's what I think nuke is doing. 

Keep saying 1001th time, I am driving wave and look at current situation, as of time we are in bear market, in a week time or month time all can turn around.

What is your problem with me really? You choose to play wait and see game, I choose take profits from waves.

I see a lot become emotionally unstable due to not realised profits or not making decisions.

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34 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Keep saying 1001th time, I am driving wave and look at current situation, as of time we are in bear market, in a week time or month time all can turn around.

What is your problem with me really? You choose to play wait and see game, I choose take profits from waves.

I see a lot become emotionally unstable due to not realised profits or not making decisions.

Didn't realise some of my words were jumbled up. Bit difficult typing on a treadmill. I don't have an issue with you or profits taking  so relax. Not everyone is out to get you lol. I'm pointing out that what we are seeing on a daily front benefits your analysis I.e. it's hindsight really. Nobody can predict the future, but based on previous cycles, and atleast the returns I would expect to signal the "bear" market we are far from it. 

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6 minutes ago, NMNR said:

Didn't realise some of my words were jumbled up. Bit difficult typing on a treadmill. I don't have an issue with you or profits taking  so relax. Not everyone is out to get you lol. I'm pointing out that what we are seeing on a daily front benefits your analysis I.e. it's hindsight really. Nobody can predict the future, but based on previous cycles, and atleast the returns I would expect to signal the "bear" market we are far from it. 

Ah, please accept my appologies, I have too many of "friends" here recently 🤣🤣🤣

I would put it simple, I will think that we are in bear market until we > 20% lower from 2021 ATH

I wish that we would reclaim 2021 ATHs in July/August, at least reclaim 😁

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2 hours ago, xrp-nuke said:

Keep saying 1001th time, I am driving wave and look at current situation, as of time we are in bear market, in a week time or month time all can turn around.

 

I took 25% off the table when BTC failed to hold 59K.  I'm really happy I have something to work with.  Unfortunately, like you, I dont see the crypto market worthy of additional money at this time.  The risk/reward isnt there. 

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Don’t check the Blockfolio all that much right now. 2017 was about watching it go down and eating away at most of the initial investment but it was something that could be afforded to lose. 2021 is about watching significant profits go up and then watching half of it vanish in a day. 🤮 

In retrospect, the 2017 version of myself would still be happy with where I am at even after the crash, but the 2021 version of myself is greedier while having an immense fear of losing additional profits.  Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

Fundamentally Bitcoin is as strong as ever, my outlook on the good alt coins out there with use cases is more optimistic in the long run than before this bull market, and this shakeout hopefully gets the market under control with all the shit coins and meme coins floating about.

My brain is telling me that this could be a bear market summer (not to be outdone by a potential double top in the fall) but my gut is telling me to to just HODL and pretend like the money doesn’t exist.  Or maybe it’s that second chilli dog I ate, I thought it tasted a little funny.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, jockeyng said:

I will judge a bear market based on the actions in the next couple of days. If some ALT coins start to take off during BTC recovery or moving sideway, then I have some confidence that the party is not over yet. If all coins are pretty dead, then we know what is going to happen.

I personally think we might be looking at several weeks, maybe a month or 2 of boring sideways action. It’s just a hunch though and not financial advice, and I definitely hope I’m wrong and instead start rallying a week and a half from now. 🤑

 

10 hours ago, NMNR said:

The easy route is saying "I told you so" and that's what I think nuke is doing. 

Don’t forget to add a few 🤣🤣🤣🤣 thrown in there as well.

 

10 hours ago, Eric123 said:

When this run is over if you held -  people will tell you how lucky you were to get Bitcoin at $30k or XRP at $1 as if, if they would have bought at those prices - they would have held till the high -  when the truth is they would have gotten shaken out a dozen times before the high. 

Amen dude! Don’t forget the “wow you should have told me about this!” When we clearly (or at least I did) did. Instead we were called crazy, but they‘ll gladly forget that part and still blame you for not telling them even though they did get the hint and they decided you were “nuts” or that they would “look into it later” because they’re currently “too busy”.
 

A friend of mine comes to mind, I told him to buy last year and also after the SEC lawsuit was filed becaused it crashed to the teens and trading hadn’t been stopped yet, but he was gonna “look into it later”. Had he listened, he could have already cashed out and made over 7x his investment. Oh well.

I was very vocal about this in the past, but after being ridiculed I’ve been keeping it to myself, only told very few close friends and none of them decided to jump in. I bet they‘ll be very interested in it when it’s time to sell, though. 

Edited by Neurotoxin
Small typo
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I have to say the comments this evening remind me of the sorts of remarks people were making in March 2020.  There was talk of XRP going to .6 and then to .2 and maybe vanishing all together.  

Just now I have quite good profits, my DCA is 35cents.  I have fear of losing what remains of those profits.  This money would be important for carrying me through the next four years of a crypto winter.

Yes I do not like the vibes...but when I watch the video below by Alessio he tells me how to recognise a bear market starting.  I trust his knowledge, and at the moment we have not seen his criteria met.   

If I capitulate I would sell my  ADA first because it is at about x five right now.  I cannot see myself selling any XRP right now because:

  • The SEC case looks to be going Ripple's way and maybe close to settlement
  • BTC seems to be solid and ready to consolidate at this price
  • This feels like the bottom of a dip
  • The institutions seem to be still interested in BTC

Good Luck everybody.

 

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1 hour ago, Neurotoxin said:

Don’t forget to add a few 🤣🤣🤣🤣 thrown in there as well

So pathetic of you to keep ad hominem style, while matter was solved in good manner in other posts.

While you keep ad hominem at high level, rest of your post are just incitement with out any action, decision or whatsoever. Just standard, old and useless: "Wow what a dump, but I was holding!!!!". What a waste 🤣🤣🤣

 

So yeah, I am glad I keep your nerve at pick and you notice me 🤣🤣🤣😁👍👌🖖👉🎁🎉🎊🎈🔥

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1 hour ago, Julian_Williams said:

If I capitulate I would sell my  ADA first because it is at about x five right now.  

 

Sell 20% ADA, and HODL the rest on the house even if it’s another four years. Projects being launched are right around the corner and the support ecosystem will be very active. People will be envious at the prices you got in at. 

 

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1 minute ago, ManBearPig said:

Sell 20% ADA, and HODL the rest on the house even if it’s another four years. Projects being launched are right around the corner and the support ecosystem will be very active. People will be envious at the prices you got in at. 

 

I do not think that upcoming bear matket will be any different for alts, so at least 80% drop expected from ATH

If ADA goes to 5 than buy back is at 1 at least.

Question is, why sell 20% not whole stack, if you believe that buy back is gonna be at least x2 lower? It means that 80% just floating without being realised?

If you bought for 0.1, sold for 2.5, and bought back at 1, you have as twice more than if you hodl (ex. Tax etc.)

I just say 80% to HODL ev3n for rest of 4 years is too big.

 

 

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