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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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1 hour ago, Troote said:

I am still holding but we are playing with fire right now. My head is telling me to sell whilst my overall holdings are still very close to their ATH, but the addiction to gambling is unfortunately very, very real...

I think you have your answer here my friend. If it’s near ATH you must be green. Just pull it out and enjoy the profit man. I exited BTC and ETH entirely while they were still blasting. Close enough to the top to be happy. Now I only have a small amount of Dash and Zcash and my ticket to a good life in the XRP stack which I’m holding and waiting for our turn. I’m confident it’s in the very near future. 
 

How could I forget the disclaimer? This is not financial advice! 

Edited by Neurotoxin
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1 hour ago, Troote said:

I share the same hope, but if you look at the BTC chart objectively, it looks like we are done. It is the log scale charts and various "metrics" that people have pulled out of their *ss (and which conveniently work for past cycles) that make people say we are still in a bullrun. Nothing guarantees the previous patterns will repeat themselves here. I have read people saying "we can't be done here, there is no red dot on the heatmap chart". As if the market cares whether there is a red dot or not. This kind of delusion is downright dangerous.

Meant to include a reply to this in my previous post. You could be right, we could be near the end, but I just don’t see it ending just yet. IMO, we have a few more months yet, but that’s just my OPINION and by no means financial advice, neither is my previous post. 

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Just to be clear, BTC and ETH are not in my portfolio. What I meant is: if BTC has truly topped, it is only a matter of hours/days before everything else follows.

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42 minutes ago, Troote said:

Just to be clear, BTC and ETH are not in my portfolio. What I meant is: if BTC has truly topped, it is only a matter of hours/days before everything else follows.

🥺

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56 minutes ago, Troote said:

Just to be clear, BTC and ETH are not in my portfolio. What I meant is: if BTC has truly topped, it is only a matter of hours/days before everything else follows.

Mine neither but they were and so far they’ve been the best performers... already exited both and not looking to get back in but I can’t ignore the fact that they multiplied my money the most. You would have done well to buy some when it was cheap, but hindsight’s always 20/20 innit? 
 

Now I’m just waiting for XRP to make my BTC and ETH gains pale in comparison. :dance4:

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3 hours ago, Neurotoxin said:

Now I’m just waiting for XRP to make my BTC and ETH gains pale in comparison. :dance4:

You say that as if you were taking it for granted... good luck watching your gains melt under the sun... :/

If BTC does not bounce sharply within 48h, I am selling everything. 38k is the last barrier for me.

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8 minutes ago, Troote said:

You say that as if you were taking it for granted... good luck watching your gains melt under the sun... :/

If BTC does not bounce sharply within 48h, I am selling everything. 38k is the last barrier for me.

Most definitely not taking it for granted, I’m just not calling this “The end” just yet. For the moment, I am bullish and I believe this is just a final shakeout before BTC makes its final, REAL top this cycle. 

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1 hour ago, Troote said:

You say that as if you were taking it for granted... good luck watching your gains melt under the sun... :/

If BTC does not bounce sharply within 48h, I am selling everything. 38k is the last barrier for me.

Hedge yourself and keep a tiny stack, that way you can not be wrong

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12th May we saw bitcoin fall -12.42%. That was the single largest fall so far this year. You survived it. Your coins survived it. Relax.

A bit more simple risk metrics.

Your 1 day VaR for a 99% confidence interval, assuming a 3 year horizon would be based around an -11.39% move. So anything worse than that would be considered a "tail" move.

We've seen 2 larger moves this year, January 21st and may 12th.

The worst move in the last 3 years is a -37% move on March 12th, 2020. Peak covid-19 where every market tanked.

Within the tail, most of the moves range between -11% to -13% with the March 12th, 2020 observation being an outlier.

If you want to trade smartly you should base your trading and investing patterns on the -37% move as that's historically the worst 1d move.

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