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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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25 minutes ago, NMNR said:

I am pretty sure this won't pass at all. What he is proposing is going to kill much of the recovery. I do think this is Biden's plan though I.e. go with something absurd then lower it down to something which people ate more comfortable with as its seen as the lesser evil.

Think you are right. Any tax increase at all was going to be met with opposition and drama. Ask for a lot, get a little will be the plan. The meeting in the middle could then be seen as a boost. 

Big money sells the news and buys back in lower anyway. 

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8 hours ago, Eric123 said:

other than a portfolio loan which I doubt you could get on crypto given how volatile it is. (and even if you could get one, it could end disastrously)

Unchained Capital, BlockFi, BitcoinSuisse, lend.hodlhodl and others let you take out a loan against BTC. Highest LTV is around 50%, longest term is 3years, interest rates are around 8-15% p.a. No credit check needed. As far as I am aware, only Unchained Capital (UC) lets you post the collateral into a multi-sig 2/3 address and an independant 3rd party holds the third key, besides UC and the borrower. No rehypothication with UC, borrower can check their balance anytime in a block explorer.

Current feasibility: low.

Above durations and interest rates are certainly better than credit card loans, but LTV is low (understandably) and interest rates are high. I expect the rates to go down into the mid-single digits and duration to go up. The current three years are less than a typical BTC market cycle. With regards to LTV, it might take a decade before it goes up to 80%, given the inherent volatility. For reference, local branches of Swiss banks assign an LTV of 90% to investment grade bond funds and 65% to High Yield Bond funds. Over time, as more and more people borrow, and sell less, competition will drive down interest rates and because there's less selling pressure, downside volatility should become less pronounced. I guess the target arbitrage game will be to lend against BTC, buy a single family home and get a rental yield that exceeds the interest rate on the BTC loan. Assuming even a 4 year duration of the loan and assuming the company one is borrowing from still exists, a 4year loan can be rolled easily and since it's a 4 year loan, one is safe from a BTC cycle timing perspective.

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@Eric123It's frustrating because I thought the Coinbase IPO from last week, mixed with Venmo allowing users to buy/sell on their platform this week would help BTC soar to 70k but it didn't and you was right...  When do you think we break out of this bearish pattern?

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Quite a bit of doom and gloom here. Am I the only one thinking this is going to get better from here? I'm expect the U.S. to sell off a bit more to 46.5k and then everything else gradually taking off in couple of days. 

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15 minutes ago, NMNR said:

Quite a bit of doom and gloom here. Am I the only one thinking this is going to get better from here? I'm expect the U.S. to sell off a bit more to 46.5k and then everything else gradually taking off in couple of days. 

These shakedowns are just part of the game, we all know that, but we still don’t like going through them. 

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1 minute ago, NMNR said:

Quite a bit of doom and gloom here. Am I the only one thinking this is going to get better from here? I'm expect the U.S. to sell off a bit more to 46.5k and then everything else gradually taking off in couple of days. 

You know its about to turn when we throw up our hands.  I agree with your assessment.

There have been 3 corrections this year.  Actually they occur about every month.  They are all about the same.  This one is a little less severe than the one in Jan where btc lost 32% of its value.  We arent there yet and 46.5k only takes us to about 30%.

The longest one lasted 21 days and we are only on day 9.  

Here's the hopium....the farther they drive it down and longer it stays down, the bigger the spring will be as long as we dont see more than 32% and 21 days.  My target for btc is 70-80k, but this latest retrace throws the possibility of over 100k based on the recoil.  After watching Doge, I'm not ruling it out eventhough I'm the last one to buy into these short term moon prices. 

My dose of hopium is that the worst case is that this is the top for btc.  In other words, it retraces from here by 70% back to the ath and nosedives into a bear market.  If that's the case, then alt season will last while it pumps that 70% back.  We hope that recovery takes as long as possible if thats the case.  Best case is that this is just another monthly correction and we dont have to talk about being at the top of btc.  That makes the alt recovery from where we are pretty spectacular.

I trade watching the 1 minute bars.  I see a lot of them.  I dont see a lot of real selling.  Its low volume manipulated selling that creates large moves by triggering stops and penetrating key resistances.  Then the shorts pile on.  I see what I perceive is a lot of shorts.  My only concern is that even at these levels I dont see anything near the volume there was at the beginning of the year.  That may be because the cost of btc is higher, but the buying seems to lack aggressiveness unless the shorts are scrambling to cover.  At some point btc maxi's have to get excited, take off their laser eyes, and buy the shorts all the way back to an ath.

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Posted (edited)

Well Bitcoin's price dropped below the support lines.  Support held for a while then broke and the price is currently under the support line that was established Feb 28.  The price is currently supported by the line that was established on January 27th.  As I do, I'll update the chart as needed.  This is how Bitcoin moves in a bull market (and yes Bitcoin is still in a bull market).  Big moves up, Big moves down, always more than expected. Again, Bull Markets are much more stressful than Bear Markets.

 

@Nat99 Yeah I think it is time to buy. I think some coins including Bitcoin are looking cheap here.  LTC, ETH, NEO.

8 hours ago, dtpace said:

@Eric123It's frustrating because I thought the Coinbase IPO from last week, mixed with Venmo allowing users to buy/sell on their platform this week would help BTC soar to 70k but it didn't

The Coinbase IPO did bring a lot of attention to the space but the run up in price and the subsequent fall took some of the steam out of investors it seems.  It was a watershed moment for the crypto space however.  $70k is going to come and go.  I think the recovery in price happens before mid next week.

BitcoinSV isn't a good coin IMO and I don't think it has long term viability but it is very volatile and good for trading.  If your a trader you might want to pick up some here and dump when it goes over $400. 

4 23 2021.png

Edited by Eric123
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