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Just taking the time to say a huge thank you to you @Eric123. I have been reading this thread daily for a long time now. I don't often sign in to post something so this thank you and acknowledgment of

Well guys for those of you that got in late 2017, this is what the beginning of a Bull Market feels like.  There will be ups and downs of course, but it will get much crazier with much higher valuatio

I was a bit bored, so I decided to analyse the reactions in the first 404(!) pages of this thread. In those 404 pages, 3938 comments received a reaction, and in total there were 11515 reactions g

1 hour ago, WarChest said:

So what is the first blue column, for example, telling me?

He’s talking about fibonacci extension levels/price targets, which is some TA stuff that I honestly haven’t taken the time to research. All I know is fib’s the word and it’s based on previous patterns and a little magic prediction thrown in there. I think it’s very unrealistic but I don’t have a crystal ball either and that’s just my opinion.

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Well I put some new lines on the Bitcoin Daily Chart. The price has been hanging around $56k give or take. The price has basically been in a pause since the last run up, if you haven't gotten in yet I'd say anything below $55k looks like a decent entry.  Right now if I were buying anything other than BTC I'd be buying LTC and XRP.

 

4 21 2021.png

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6 hours ago, WarChest said:

So what is the first blue column, for example, telling me?

First blue column assumes that if you use a fibonacci extension based on the previous ATH (in order to get a sense of where the next ATH may be, which usually is 4.236 extensions of whatever 1.0 is) and draw it in the classical way, i.e. previous ATH = 1.0 and the cycle low being 0, then the typical 4.236 extension would get you to a new ATH of $82k ish.

Gray column assumes that the respective coin does a "Dogecoin" and moves beyond that target and one way to estimate the new ATH is by saying "no wait, the previous ATH actually equals 0.236 of the next move". 

Gray is a bit more insane than blue, but Doge went even beyond insane, so...

By the way, when doing it on a chart, numbers are slightly off, given the dynamic nature of the ratios. So any "targets" (they are guesstimates at best) should be taken with a "+/-10-15%" kind of grain of salt.

I guess the most conservative approach is to buy the highest ratios (previous ATH relative to current price) and hold it until previous ATH. Would still make some nice gains and given there will be possibilities to rotate, then the overall trading approach might make, who knows, 10-15x the initial investment. Notabene I'm not taking capital gains tax into consideration, because my jurisdiction has a threshold for it that I don't meet, so I somewhat ignore it.

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5 hours ago, Neurotoxin said:

He’s talking about fibonacci extension levels/price targets, which is some TA stuff that I honestly haven’t taken the time to research. All I know is fib’s the word and it’s based on previous patterns and a little magic prediction thrown in there. I think it’s very unrealistic but I don’t have a crystal ball either and that’s just my opinion.

Fibs are definitely a bit esoteric. I take them with a grain of salt, too. Markets are an expression of human mind, and we like our golden ratios, so from time to time they seem to be a nice-to-know indicator of where things are going. I am not sure if they withstand a thorough statistical test. Probably not.

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1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

Well I put some new lines on the Bitcoin Daily Chart. The price has been hanging around $56k give or take. The price has basically been in a pause since the last run up, if you haven't gotten in yet I'd say anything below $55k looks like a decent entry.  Right now if I were buying anything other than BTC I'd be buying LTC and XRP.

 

4 21 2021.png

@Eric123Do you sometimes get the thought that the 2016/2017 bullmarket was actually quite weak* (say for global macro reasons) and in that regard maybe a bit too conservative of an indicator to base 2021 bullrun predictions on?

*i.e. weaker than it should've been

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Posted (edited)

Bitcoin's price is breaking through (currently above) the short term down trend it has been stuck in since April 14th.   The Main Stream Media has FUD out in full force recently. Regulation FUD - Carbon Footprint FUD, etc.  Nothing in the financial news area seems to make people more angry than Bitcoin, it has constantly been under attack since as long as I've been following it.  Bitcoin has always overcome and made a lot of haters look like fools in the process. 

There have been many articles about the 5 Stages of Bitcoin Acceptance/Adoption Etc., though I think the  5 Stages of Grief seem to coincide best with Bitcoin adoption. 1. Denial, 2. Anger, 3. Bargaining, 4. Depression, 5. Acceptance.

Given this list it is obvious how early Bitcoin is in the cycle. I'd say it's at a 1.25.

Most people are still in Denial and are dismissive of Bitcoin, these people use terms like - Fake, Magic Internet Money, No Intrinsic Value. 

Others have moved into the Anger phase and lash out against Bitcoin, these people use terms like - carbon footprint, ponzi, regulation, money laundering.

 There are very few people that have reached the acceptance phase.

21 hours ago, Nat99 said:

@Eric123Do you sometimes get the thought that the 2016/2017 bullmarket was actually quite weak* (say for global macro reasons) and in that regard maybe a bit too conservative of an indicator to base 2021 bullrun predictions on?

*i.e. weaker than it should've been

I don't think the previous Bull Market was weak - Many alts made enormous gains.  Technological revolutions (which this is)  are hard to model.  Will this Bull run be larger than the 2017-2018 one?  I don't know time will tell.  

 

4 22 2021.png

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45 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Regulation FUD - Carbon Footprint FUD, etc.  Nothing in the financial news area seems to make people more angry than Bitcoin, it has constantly been under attack since as long as I've been following it.  Bitcoin has always overcome and made a lot of haters look like fools in the process. 

Since I'm on your ignore list, you won't see this - but bitcoin suffers from  fundamental flaws. If it wishes to be a store of value, then if you leave 1 BTC on the chain for a period of time, you should expect it to have the same value when you come back to it later. The network requires so much energy to keep it running that miners have to sell tokens to pay bills. This means that there must be a minimum inflow of cash to the network to maintain the price. Once that inflow drops below the rate required - which is a function of the hash rate and electricity unit cost - then it should fall in value. This is a textbook definition of a ponzi scheme - it only works as long as new money is coming in. As long as you have you Musks and Saylors, you're ok, but once they all leave, you're not. 

The higher the price goes, the higher the incentive for more miners to join becomes, which in turn drives the baseline input money-flow required upwards. The system must and will come crashing down. The FUD you speak of is simply a manifestation of this apprehension.

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3 hours ago, Eric123 said:

No Intrinsic Value

this piece of FUD is the one that makes me shake my head the most. Anybody using the term "intrinsic value" needs to get their head checked.

"intrinsic" attributes are objectively observable, e.g. boiling temperature of a liquid or melting point of a metal.

"value" is subjective, otherwise markets would have zero volatility. I might find something valuable but somebody else doesn't, or the prices we both are willing to pay might differ significantly.

In that sense, "intrinsic value" is an oxymoron. People using that term are morons.

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10 minutes ago, Nat99 said:

this piece of FUD is the one that makes me shake my head the most. Anybody using the term "intrinsic value" needs to get their head checked.

"intrinsic" attributes are objectively observable, e.g. boiling temperature of a liquid or melting point of a metal.

"value" is subjective, otherwise markets would have zero volatility. I might find something valuable but somebody else doesn't, or the prices we both are willing to pay might differ significantly.

In that sense, "intrinsic value" is an oxymoron. People using that term are morons.

Intrinsically valuable = not an oxymoron, maybe only to the morons 🤓 see what I did there 

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On 1/4/2021 at 5:30 AM, Eric123 said:

I"m no implying anything.  I've written directly, numerous times on this thread (probably more than 20), that I expect the Bull market to last for 12+months and for Bitcoin to reach about $400k

I have to say you've changed your stance on this considerably.

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@Trentsteelback in January, Eric123 stated that he expects the bull market to last for 12+ months and for Bitcoin to reach $400k.

If you look at the post he made recently, he states "Will this Bull run be larger than the 2017-2018 one?  I don't know time will tell."

Therefore, it seems his stance has changed considerably.

Just thought I'd clear this up for you as you seem to be a bit confused.

 

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2 minutes ago, HenrySeldom said:

Are you gas-lighting? @Eric123's projections have been rock steady imo. 

@Eric123had projected Bitcoin to reach $400k but now he doesn't seem to be so confident according to his recent post.

Don't get me wrong, I'd absolutely love to see Bitcoin reach $400k by the end of this run but I can't see it happening unfortunately. 

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