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Eric123

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

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1 hour ago, Caracappa said:

Not that I ever sold a single XRP, but what do they mean with 'taking profits at certain points'? For example someone on tradingview posts these profit points because they are seeing the same pennant in XRPUSD currently with an expected uprise.

The points they are listing are likely anticipated resistance points based on analyst's view of the current wave pattern, previous price movement, and expected fib extensions of individual waves in case they should occur.  The best way to interpret something like this it to look at is as if it were a weather forecast;  "the storm is coming this way, but we are not quite sure where exactly it may go because the atmosphere is unstable;  if it goes this way then it may do x, or it may get parked here and do y etc".   What you decide to do with the information is entirely up to you (bring an umbrella, dress in warm clothing / set your take profit points, bump up your stops when approaching one of resistance levels etc), but overall the information is usually only meant for day traders to set up their daily entry/exit points and is not prescriptive of the amounts to buy/sell as those will be up to individual traders.

Remember -   weather forecast, not a recipe.

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5 hours ago, Eric123 said:

@Caracappa  post the link and I'll take a look.  Looks like it would be profit points based upon the price at which they personally purchased XRP.  But even without knowing the full story, locking in profits is always a good idea.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUSD/iq4qyXUL-There-is-a-possibility-for-the-beginning-of-an-uptrend-in-XRPUSD/

This one. 

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1 hour ago, Caracappa said:

This is simply a trader's approach. You can see that those take profit points are at specific levels which have provided support/ resistance in the past. So every time you hit those levels, you close a certain percentage of your overall long position and, well, take profits. Yes you might then buy the dips depending on price action at the time. 

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2 hours ago, Caracappa said:

This (above) looks eerily similar to this (below). 

If I have time later tonight, I might write a post that may or may not blow your minds.... depending how much you are into fibs. 

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So TA traders are always looking for patterns in the market. Many people don't believe TA and others do, and I guess it's a matter of opinion and perception. Doing some investigating, I was finding some interesting patterns, not only in BTC but also XRP. 

The fibs, no matter how you use them, always arrive to .236, .382, .5, .618, .786, 1, 1.236, 1.382, 1.5, etc. (Also reference for people who may not know the Fibonacci numbers)

BTC (below) has developed some interesting patterns based on percentage of price fluctuations. I mapped out all percentage price swings since the high in 2017. If you notice the negative percentages (red) 70.2%, 46.2%, 42.4%, 31.3%, 51.5%, and all positive percentages (green) 99.4%, 53.0%, 47.8%, 22.9% fall within a couple of percentage points of the fibs numbers. Coincidence?

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I also took the time to map out XRP. It looks just as interesting. Negatives percentages (red) 82.9%, 61.9%, 73.4%, 64.5% and positive percentages 112%, 114%, and 225% all resemble a couple of percentage points off of the fib numbers. From my perspective, it looks like XRP is following fib support/resistance points very well. 

WLoVyVke

There is compelling evidence that TA does work, but it depends on the perspective you have. Just slapping on a fib extension, retracement, circle, channel, etc. does not work unless you have evidence from the past to support your current decision.

Instead of creating a different post, I will provide another perspective on XRP that may or may not come to fruition that I am calling the good, bad, and ugly. BTC had a ~50% in the month of November after having what some may call "a dead cat bounce." To me, it looks more like an elliptical curve of a trend line to the down side. Note the blueish green line. It broke the support line, and dropped to the next support. Note the red trend line and what we have to do to break out of the trend. 

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If XRP was to resemble the BTC drop in November (dead cat bounce) and we break this current support, I would expect our drop of ~50% to hold support at the level on ~.15 cent. This is not ideal of breaking out of the bear market and would take some more time to break the down-trendline (Red line). However, the supporting argument for the bulls though is the the total pull back of BTC is currently at ~84% and XRP has pulled back ~92%, which XRP could have already factored in BTC's November collapse. Note XRP DID drop ~50% in November, indicated from the first arrow.  

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I know a lot of you are watching the trendline of this pennant, but I will be watching the support area to see if it holds. For RN, I will be waiting to see what happens, and then resume some more cost averaging. 

 

Edited by ObeyTheWafflehouse

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2 hours ago, Eric123 said:

This is what the weekly chart looks like zoomed out.  MACD on the weekly is about to turn positive!!!!!  Who can look at this chart given Bitcoin's history and not start to get excited?!!  I also added the weekly from the 13-15.  

Pennant Weekly 1.png

Pennant1weekly 13-15.png

Wow that is very similar.  Question:  if it follows the previous chart and we do get a bull run,  would you say we stop at 4-5x like the previous or do you think it goes higher?  At that point, would you suggest taking profit or do you expect it to hold and that be the new low/norm?

 

i was greedy last Bullrun and didn’t sell a single xrp, and rode it all the way back down, so I may try a different approach this time lol. 

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@Milly238  I think knowing when to sell is much harder than knowing when to buy.  So far Bitcoin has been surprising both to the upside and to the downside.  If things keep in line with the 2015 low (about $200) to 2017 high about ($20,000) 100x -  We are looking at bitcoin around $300,000 to $350,000 and then it would fall to around $35,000 to $50,000. Obviously who knows if that is gonna happen.  If that does happen I don't see any reason why XRP wouldn't be triple digits at that point.  When you take profits is basically a personal choice depending on your goals, risk tolerance, FOMO, when you bought in, amount of investment, etc.  For myself I don't plan on selling any XRP for less than $20.

 

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20 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

@Milly238  I think knowing when to sell is much harder than knowing when to buy.  So far Bitcoin has been surprising both to the upside and to the downside.  If things keep in line with the 2015 low (about $200) to 2017 high about ($20,000) 100x -  We are looking at bitcoin around $300,000 to $350,000 and then it would fall to around $35,000 to $50,000. Obviously who knows if that is gonna happen.  If that does happen I don't see any reason why XRP wouldn't be triple digits at that point.  When you take profits is basically a personal choice depending on your goals, risk tolerance, FOMO, when you bought in, amount of investment, etc.  For myself I don't plan on selling any XRP for less than $20.

 

I will definitely be selling if it reaches triple digits !  I was thinking more along the lines of say it goes to $4-6, do you think it will hold around there or drop back down just like the last bull run?

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9 minutes ago, Milly238 said:

I will definitely be selling if it reaches triple digits !  I was thinking more along the lines of say it goes to $4-6, do you think it will hold around there or drop back down just like the last bull run?

@Eric123 and @ObeyTheWafflehouse - I'm not a technical analyst at all, but I appreciate all your efforts to explain your craft. :)

As for the above question, my non-technical feeling about this is that there are a lot of sweaty hands holding XRP right now, and a new ATH will bring out some selling and dampen the action at least for the next run-up. After that I think the way higher will be more clear... JMO

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