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Eric123

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

@Baka I don't know if it will go to .30 .32 maybe, maybe not, but I'll let you know what I'm doing.  I'm buying a little every day.  Bought some at .38, .42,  .41, and today at .36  and I will keep buying as long as the price stays under .40. Bitcoin's 100 Day EMA  will cross the 200 Day EMA in about 10 days (I think we take a bit of a breather till then, but who knows)

@Warg I kinda agree with the 5 quadrillion statement but not entirely and I'll tell you why., the coin flipping is completely not analogous though. 

The coin flipping is just chance, it is not a pattern based on acceptance of a new concept by an economy and adoption of it's methods.  A new technology needs introduction, education, acceptance and infrastructure before it is adopted. The price cycles that emerge with a new technologies infiltration into the economy are not just mere chance.  So I disagree there. 

As far as you statement that these patterns cannot repeat indefinitely, well I completely agree with that, so when does it stop?  The cycle stops when the market is saturated.

Crypto's growth is kinda like cancer.  Cancer infiltrates the system and grows, It's identified and knocked down with hormonal treatment, remission lasts a while then the cancer adapts and comes back stronger.  Next Chemo is tried and the cancer is knocked back into remission for a while, then it comes back stronger. Then radiation, then immunotherapy.  When does it end? when the Cancer consumes the host. At what point will Crypto consume the economy? I've heard estimates of 7-15 years, what prices will we be at then?  I don't know some people conjecture a few $million for a bitcoin.

Below is a Bitcoin chart.  The line gets it back to it's ATH by the end of November. 

 

 

5 17 19.png

I agree what you are doing is not like flipping a coin.  You are expecting patterns to repeat themselves, and so far that is happening.  Your analogy with cancer is very interesting and fits (although I have reservations about the word cancer)

I agree pattern repeat themselves until something happens to break the pattern making

My difficulty with your method is that I think the market is undergoing a fundamental change.  I think Galgitron point that BTC hit the glass ceiling in2017/18 and broke its neck is plausible.  2017/18 publicly demonstrated that BTC is not scalable and never will be.  BTC tech has been overtaken by more modern tech that is scalable and has more flexibility to be utilised across many disciplines. For me the BTC believers that say ".......but BTC is a store of Value" are duping themselves.  Something that has no intrinsic value cannot be a store of value, it kings no clothes stuff.  As soon as XRP gets going XRP will become a natural store of value in the financial system in things like derivative trading and Smart Contracts.  The role of store of value will pass across to tokens that are essential to keep the cogs turning.

But Galgitron's big point was that the Whales, who own over 90% of the BTC stock, saw BTC hit the glass ceiling and they will want to get their tokens out of BTC.  They want a pump before they dump.   This is exactly what happened last night; a whale jumped ship because the price was good.  I think this huge BTC wealth by whales will keep hitting the growth back.  This will become the pattern breaker that will stop BTC bull market ever really getting very far (maybe it will hit 20k or 50k, but time is now against them.  They are in a race with tokens like XRP)

When it comes to XRP the opposite is true.  Yes there are whales, but they will be calculating that XRP is going to grow and grow as adoption happens, so these whales have no reason to sell their coins. 

Edited by Julian_Williams

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30 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

@Baka I don't know if it will go to .30 .32 maybe, maybe not, but I'll let you know what I'm doing.  I'm buying a little every day.  Bought some at .38, .42,  .41, and today at .36  and I will keep buying as long as the price stays under .40. Bitcoin's 100 Day EMA  will cross the 200 Day EMA in about 10 days (I think we take a bit of a breather till then, but who knows)

@Warg I kinda agree with the 5 quadrillion statement but not entirely and I'll tell you why., the coin flipping is completely not analogous though. 

The coin flipping is just chance, it is not a pattern based on acceptance of a new concept by an economy and adoption of it's methods.  A new technology needs introduction, education, acceptance and infrastructure before it is adopted. The price cycles that emerge with a new technologies infiltration into the economy are not just mere chance.  So I disagree there. 

As far as you statement that these patterns cannot repeat indefinitely, well I completely agree with that, so when does it stop?  The cycle stops when the market is saturated.

Crypto's growth is kinda like cancer.  Cancer infiltrates the system and grows, It's identified and knocked down with hormonal treatment, remission lasts a while then the cancer adapts and comes back stronger.  Next Chemo is tried and the cancer is knocked back into remission for a while, then it comes back stronger. Then radiation, then immunotherapy.  When does it end? when the Cancer consumes the host. At what point will Crypto consume the economy? I've heard estimates of 7-15 years, what prices will we be at then?  I don't know some people conjecture a few $million for a bitcoin.

Below is a Bitcoin chart.  The line gets it back to it's ATH by the end of November. 

 

 

5 17 19.png

Thank you for your reply. Yes I agree the coin flipping example cannot be applied in an adequate way, it was more of a example of pattern recognition.

Look, I understand what you are saying and you are right in your reasoning. Like I alluded to in my previous post, there is nothing "wrong" with these TA's in and of themselves. They work until they don't. But somehow everywhere I look around in crypto blogs/forums/YT and whatnot, almost everyone is referring to this pattern, "price will go to X because of this pattern in the past". All I am trying to do is reign in this line of thinking because people kind of take it as a guarantee that it will repeat itself, when nothing is guaranteed in the world of trading. Lastly I am not in particular directing this rant to you or anyone in this thread really, it's more of chance that I posted it here after seeing this sort of stuff all over for such a long time.

Disclosure: Yes I am long XRP and believe price will reach much higher than it is today, but not based on repetitive patterns, but because of demand and utility fundamentally.

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Posted (edited)

@Julian_Williams I think we've had this discussion before and I think I've even had it with Galgitron and I'm pretty sure I got into a fight with Hodor over it too.  Yeah I disagree with all that and I don't see any crypto future that doesn't have Bitcoin as the Main component.

Edited by Eric123

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36 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

@Julian_Williams I think we've had this discussion before and I think I've even had it with Galgitron and I'm pretty sure I got into a fight with Hodor over it too.  Yeah I disagree with all that and I don't see any crypt future that doesn't have Bitcoin as the Main component.

Yes, I accept that.  I am reiterating what I have said before because it is a caveat that needs to be included alongside yours.  So far you approach has worked well.

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Although I'm not a big fan of Bitcoin, I've got to take issue with this:  " For me the BTC believers that say ".......but BTC is a store of Value" are duping themselves.  Something that has no intrinsic value cannot be a store of value, it kings no clothes stuff."  The value here is the cryptographic nature and the widespread acceptance of BTC as something representing an "agreed upon" value. Fiat is similar in the respect that the paper is essentially worthless, it's the "agreed upon" value that makes it work. The flaws in the design of BTC will ultimately degrade its value, imho, however, for the time being it's holding up surprisingly well. If trust in the fiat of the world's major powers is ever lost, then a rush to "safe haven" assets will ensue, and BTC will likely benefit greatly.  Even gold and silver have lost some of their appeal due to manipulation enabled by the overprinting of certificates: essentially false promissory notes that allows for this manipulation. There's even a legitimate concern that much of the world's gold reserves have been infiltrated by gold-covered tungsten blanks, as was uncovered by the Chinese some years back after purchasing thousands of U.S. 400oz gold bars, which they drilled to asses purity/integrity.  Rampant world-wide embezzlement, manipulation, and theft has left most of the traditional "safe havens" much less secure, which has resulted in BTC gaining some credibility for this purpose. How this will all play out is anyone's guess, however, should fiat start to crash, I would expect crypto to soar.  

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

Yes, I accept that.  I am reiterating what I have said before because it is a caveat that needs to be included alongside yours.  So far you approach has worked well.

Julian, you seem to be a bright and positive person with solid contribution here but i'll tell you what: i've been hearing "BTC is dead, old, dying technology" song as well as "XRP/BTC decoupling" song from about the end of 2016. We are half a year into 2019 and BTC is still here, its still has well over 50% of total crypto market cap, its still have strong backers - whales, its still being used by ppl to convert cryptos, its still presented on hundreds of exchanges, its still has powerful community behind, its still has a number of developers, etc.

Yes it has its issues (scaling, electricity use, China's exposure into mining, 51% attack to name a few) but its still a King irrespectively of whether you or i want it or not and irrespectively of that there is enough logic for it to be dead by now.

Disclosure: 80% of my portfolio is and has been XRP with 0% of my portfolio is BTC, but i used to own some)

Thanks)

Edited by WillGetThere
Grammar and couple of thoughts

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15 minutes ago, WuWei said:

Although I'm not a big fan of Bitcoin, I've got to take issue with this:  " For me the BTC believers that say ".......but BTC is a store of Value" are duping themselves.  Something that has no intrinsic value cannot be a store of value, it kings no clothes stuff."  The value here is the cryptographic nature and the widespread acceptance of BTC as something representing an "agreed upon" value. Fiat is similar in the respect that the paper is essentially worthless, it's the "agreed upon" value that makes it work. The flaws in the design of BTC will ultimately degrade its value, imho, however, for the time being it's holding up surprisingly well. If trust in the fiat of the world's major powers is ever lost, then a rush to "safe haven" assets will ensue, and BTC will likely benefit greatly.  Even gold and silver have lost some of their appeal due to manipulation enabled by the overprinting of certificates: essentially false promissory notes that allows for this manipulation. There's even a legitimate concern that much of the world's gold reserves have been infiltrated by gold-covered tungsten blanks, as was uncovered by the Chinese some years back after purchasing thousands of U.S. 400oz gold bars, which they drilled to asses purity/integrity.  Rampant world-wide embezzlement, manipulation, and theft has left most of the traditional "safe havens" much less secure, which has resulted in BTC gaining some credibility for this purpose. How this will all play out is anyone's guess, however, should fiat start to crash, I would expect crypto to soar.  

Agreed. BTC isn't going anywhere. People don't realize this now, but these are scarce assets. There will only be 21 million BTC. I am a longtime XRP bagholder because of how great the tech is compared to BTC, but that doesn't mean BTC is worthless. I think a solid mix of XRP, BTC, LTC, and ETH is what people should be aiming for. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, WuWei said:

Although I'm not a big fan of Bitcoin, I've got to take issue with this:  " For me the BTC believers that say ".......but BTC is a store of Value" are duping themselves.  Something that has no intrinsic value cannot be a store of value, it kings no clothes stuff."  The value here is the cryptographic nature and the widespread acceptance of BTC as something representing an "agreed upon" value. Fiat is similar in the respect that the paper is essentially worthless, it's the "agreed upon" value that makes it work. The flaws in the design of BTC will ultimately degrade its value, imho, however, for the time being it's holding up surprisingly well. If trust in the fiat of the world's major powers is ever lost, then a rush to "safe haven" assets will ensue, and BTC will likely benefit greatly.  Even gold and silver have lost some of their appeal due to manipulation enabled by the overprinting of certificates: essentially false promissory notes that allows for this manipulation. There's even a legitimate concern that much of the world's gold reserves have been infiltrated by gold-covered tungsten blanks, as was uncovered by the Chinese some years back after purchasing thousands of U.S. 400oz gold bars, which they drilled to asses purity/integrity.  Rampant world-wide embezzlement, manipulation, and theft has left most of the traditional "safe havens" much less secure, which has resulted in BTC gaining some credibility for this purpose. How this will all play out is anyone's guess, however, should fiat start to crash, I would expect crypto to soar.  

Excellent point @WuWei.  I think one of the big advantages of crypto is that payments can be made transparent and delivered with text rich attached data and an audit trail directly to the point of need.  If crypto payments are provided in a well regulated network it could be used as a means to strangle out corrupt players of the financial system (including corrupt/unfair creaming by unfair and/or corrupt banking practices).

My point really was that a store of value has to contribute some inescapable residual importance in the system it serves.  A store of value cannot be tagged on as a sort of appendage because everyone agrees it will be valuable for the sake of being valuable, because it only takes one boy in the crowd to cry out for the illusion to be busted.

I don't think BTC is finished.  It has a way to run, and I do not want to reopen discussions that I have already had with Eric123.  I think this thread he started has been a big success and he has demonstrated how patterns can be a very successful predictor of how the future will unfold.

Edited by Julian_Williams

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5 hours ago, WuWei said:

How this will all play out is anyone's guess, however, should fiat start to crash, I would expect crypto to soar.  

I will add that fiat doesn't even need to crash, but some important economies need to dip lower- is all crypto will need to see new infusions of money.  And that is already beginning to happen.  Next 6-12 months and it will only happen more.  

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On 5/17/2019 at 6:13 AM, Warg said:

People need to be careful with all these projections. I'm not particularly directing it to you but everyone who extrapolates the movements based on previous movements. There is no guarantee that it will move like that just because it has moved like that in the past. It's akin to the logic that I flipped heads 3 times in a row so the next flip will be heads. Also, with this flawed investment logic the price has to touch 5 quadrillion / XRP given enough time. It works until it doesn't. Don't base your investment decisions based on copying past TA performance if you are wise. In and of itself there is nothing wrong with these kind of analysis but they all rest on the very assumptive foundation that history will repeat itself. It might for a number of times but most certainly it will not indefinitely.

There is nothing assumptive about that foundation.  Pricing is based on emotion and human behavior, and human behavior (and in particular the herd behavior) follows specific patterns.  This is the reason that market cycles exist, and the reason that price movements exhibit fractal behavior.  Historical xrp price chart is more than simply a plot of price over time:  it is a record of how the herd collectively responds to xrp given strengthening fundamentals and the passage of time.

This is the very reason that I posted that specific chart;  given everything that is going on at the moment (IMF meetings, adoption gaining traction, 18 months of excellent news with zero price impact) combined with the current price and historical behavior, I think that odds for a repeat are more than just good (actually, I think that everyone should print that chart out and post it above their beds, but that's just me).

And yes, it is always good to be cautions as there is much TA fluff out there.  This chart is not in that category IMO.

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On 5/17/2019 at 1:34 AM, automatic said:

I posted this in the Zerpening club a while ago;  it is a log chart by Strictly posted on TradingView and reposted by Kavbata around here somewhere.  This provides some good historical perspective;  our current trading range is 25c-65c, but the projected top range of the long term log channel given the current wave is $50+.

So yeah, $36 seems in the ballpark.

image.png.fd6b5d3c6d3d4c95061b9576d1defbe9.png

I want to make sure I am reading this projection correctly. Does this chart imply that (if history repeats itself), we could see a bullrun begin December 2020 with a price of $36-$50 to be reached over the course of 8-12 months?

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12 minutes ago, XRPboi said:

I want to make sure I am reading this projection correctly. Does this chart imply that (if history repeats itself), we could see a bullrun begin December 2020 with a price of $36-$50 to be reached over the course of 8-12 months?

Yes but with the start around Deccember 2019. 

And history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. To the ******* moon.

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On 5/17/2019 at 11:44 AM, WuWei said:

Even gold and silver have lost some of their appeal due to manipulation enabled by the overprinting of certificates: essentially false promissory notes that allows for this manipulation. There's even a legitimate concern that much of the world's gold reserves have been infiltrated by gold-covered tungsten blanks, as was uncovered by the Chinese some years back after purchasing thousands of U.S. 400oz gold bars, which they drilled to asses purity/integrity.  Rampant world-wide embezzlement, manipulation, and theft has left most of the traditional "safe havens" much less secure, which has resulted in BTC gaining some credibility for this purpose. How this will all play out is anyone's guess, however, should fiat start to crash, I would expect crypto to soar.  

I believe that currently BTC does play a role as a safe haven asset, and I'm ambivalent about whether that will be eroded. I do understand the argument.

The point I'd like to make is that you have gold slightly wrong. It isn't the lack of trust in gold (or the provenance of gold)  that has changed the way gold is valued over the past few years, but rather the emergence of bitcoin as a convenient alternative. You are listing reasons why gold is going nowhere, but you need to see that it is BTC that is very much the elephant in the room. This has been written about, but most in the gold community don't believe it and damn sure don't want to believe it.

Goldbugs are the True Believers of the world of money. They almost never acknowledge that the one asset they think is worth something, might actually itself be subject to "erosion" of any kind. 

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56 minutes ago, Benchmark said:

Yes but with the start around Deccember 2019. 

And history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. To the ******* moon.

Nice. The price went from .005 to 3.34 (668x) over 11 months in 2017. 

If history rhymes, why not expect a similar run in growth, considering the multitude of new exchanges, potential for actual xRapid use, and greater overall adoption? 

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