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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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Just taking the time to say a huge thank you to you @Eric123. I have been reading this thread daily for a long time now. I don't often sign in to post something so this thank you and acknowledgment of

Well guys for those of you that got in late 2017, this is what the beginning of a Bull Market feels like.  There will be ups and downs of course, but it will get much crazier with much higher valuatio

I was a bit bored, so I decided to analyse the reactions in the first 404(!) pages of this thread. In those 404 pages, 3938 comments received a reaction, and in total there were 11515 reactions g

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I called 11 cents a while back. 

I'm rarely wrong. The chart speaks for itself. Zoom out and you'll see a clear pattern develop over the last 3 years.

We don't need 500 odd pages of charts and lines, everyone can see where we're headed and the pattern hasn't changed. There are absolutely no signs whatsoever of this changing anytime soon.

Edited by Moonraker
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47 minutes ago, Moonraker said:

It could well be 36. But a minimum of 12 judging by the charts.

at the present rate (200,000,000 xrp/month) it takes 244 months (20 years and 4 months) to release the remaining 48,8blns.

But we suppose that:

1 this rate won't be constant. Actually there has already been an increase from 2018 (the rate of release was even smaller)

2 assumed that price is going sometimes to increase, this should happen before the whole 48,8 blns have been released.

actually there's a mistake in the chart: Jan 2018 is at the origin, but the first month all released xrp went back into new escrows. so first release took place in Feb 2018.

image.thumb.png.46e21a1f18018d3653a04a018b3bb415.png

Edited by JJJ2
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4 hours ago, JJJ2 said:

at the present rate (200,000,000 xrp/month) it takes 244 months (20 years and 4 months) to release the remaining 48,8blns.

But we suppose that:

1 this rate won't be constant. Actually there has already been an increase from 2018 (the rate of release was even smaller)

2 assumed that price is going sometimes to increase, this should happen before the whole 48,8 blns have been released.

actually there's a mistake in the chart: Jan 2018 is at the origin, but the first month all released xrp went back into new escrows. so first release took place in Feb 2018.

image.thumb.png.46e21a1f18018d3653a04a018b3bb415.png

I see your method of thinking, which to my mind is a narrow way of looking at how these markets work.  When adoption happens the rate of adoption of ODL and demand for XRP for other uses will be exponential.  Rate of release is limited to linear 1 billion a month, but in reality much slower and under the control of owners who have a vested interest in making the price go up.  On the other end of the scale people lose their keys and lock up XRP in long term holds.  MM and banks are also likely to stock pile XRP.

Jed is  a problem, as are hoards stolen in scams (but the scammers seem more responsible than Jed)

BTC is mined ever month and that is absorbed by the markets.

Edited by Julian_Williams
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1 hour ago, Julian_Williams said:

I see your method of thinking, which to my mind is a narrow way of looking at how these markets work.  When adoption happens the rate of adoption of ODL and demand for XRP for other uses will be exponential.  Rate of release is limited to linear 1 billion a month, but in reality much slower and under the control of owners who have a vested interest in making the price go up.  On the other end of the scale people lose their keys and lock up XRP in long term holds.  MM and banks are also likely to stock pile XRP.

Jed is  a problem, as are hoards stolen in scams (but the scammers seem more responsible than Jed)

BTC is mined ever month and that is absorbed by the markets.

Julian, I always play safe. So I take the worst case. But I also think that the rate or release will not remain linear.

The point is that nobody is able to say how fast it will change. In the next months we will see how fast the new excrows are absorbed by the market and so we'll be abl to update the function: maybe quadratic? or the 3rd power? or really exponential as you state?

 

I have made a simulation with a parabolic rate of release fitted to three data points taken from the past months.

In that case I get not 244 months, but only 148 months, that is less than 12 years.

And if it goes at the 3rd power than it will be much faster.

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Bitcoin has been above $10k for49 out of the last 56 days and has currently been above $10k for 12 straight days.   Bollinger Bands are tightening.  Hash Rate is 4th highest ever.  Progress continues.  If Bitcoin breaks to the upside after this consolidation $10k will be set as the floor.  

9 22 2020.png

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6 hours ago, JJJ2 said:

I have made a simulation with a parabolic rate of release fitted to three data points taken from the past months.

I applaud your effort to quantify it but I seriously doubt it is possible to achieve a sensible result of any prediction in this area.

It is almost a binary thing I think.  
Either XRP will wallow like the present and dribble out till the world loses interest,  or it will at some point experience exponential growth and the whole landscape changes.  At that point any trends predicted using the pre growth data will be obsolete.

So to me any escrow analysis at this stage is pointless and fruitless.

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13 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

I applaud your effort to quantify it but I seriously doubt it is possible to achieve a sensible result of any prediction in this area.

It is almost a binary thing I think.  
Either XRP will wallow like the present and dribble out till the world loses interest,  or it will at some point experience exponential growth and the whole landscape changes.  At that point any trends predicted using the pre growth data will be obsolete.

So to me any escrow analysis at this stage is pointless and fruitless.

I agree. 

 

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