Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

[Lumpy 271]

5 hours ago, ManBearPig said:

Bought some more bitcoin today. 

Don't think it's the right moment tbh. A spicy short is probably the good idea here. 

Edited September 21, 2020 by Lumpy

[Guest]

A combination scenario of stocks crashing and the defi bubble bursting (once the KYC/AML hounds pounce) is going to be quite a brutal downturn in crypto. No TA needed.

[Eric123 8,968]

Beat down let's see if $10k holds.

[VegitaXRP 285]

Thinking of buying XRP here.

[Baka 1,723]

3 hours ago, VegitaXRP said:

Thinking of buying XRP here.

I would wait , we may see 0.16-0.18$ really soon.

[Moonraker 849]

 

I called 11 cents a while back. 

I'm rarely wrong. The chart speaks for itself. Zoom out and you'll see a clear pattern develop over the last 3 years.

We don't need 500 odd pages of charts and lines, everyone can see where we're headed and the pattern hasn't changed. There are absolutely no signs whatsoever of this changing anytime soon.

Edited September 22, 2020 by Moonraker

[Flintstone 7,432]

28 minutes ago, Moonraker said:

I'm rarely wrong

But when you are......

On 3/13/2018 at 4:53 PM, Moonraker said:

I made my first purchase during the ATH. Then when the price went down to around $1.70, people kept saying the same thing - it's the last chance, its the last chance. So I put more money in and the price kept coming down and down.

I can't afford to buy more now. If only I had waited until now, I would have had double the amount of what I have now.

So when people say it's the last chance it's the last chance, is it really the last chance? Nobody knows the answer to this.

 

[Dario_o 1,739]

16 minutes ago, Moonraker said:

it won't happen for another 12 - 18 years

12? Why not 36 then

[JJJ2 401]

47 minutes ago, Moonraker said:

It could well be 36. But a minimum of 12 judging by the charts.

at the present rate (200,000,000 xrp/month) it takes 244 months (20 years and 4 months) to release the remaining 48,8blns.

But we suppose that:

1 this rate won't be constant. Actually there has already been an increase from 2018 (the rate of release was even smaller)

2 assumed that price is going sometimes to increase, this should happen before the whole 48,8 blns have been released.

actually there's a mistake in the chart: Jan 2018 is at the origin, but the first month all released xrp went back into new escrows. so first release took place in Feb 2018.

Edited September 22, 2020 by JJJ2

[Julian_Williams 12,855]

4 hours ago, JJJ2 said:

at the present rate (200,000,000 xrp/month) it takes 244 months (20 years and 4 months) to release the remaining 48,8blns.

But we suppose that:

1 this rate won't be constant. Actually there has already been an increase from 2018 (the rate of release was even smaller)

2 assumed that price is going sometimes to increase, this should happen before the whole 48,8 blns have been released.

actually there's a mistake in the chart: Jan 2018 is at the origin, but the first month all released xrp went back into new escrows. so first release took place in Feb 2018.

I see your method of thinking, which to my mind is a narrow way of looking at how these markets work.  When adoption happens the rate of adoption of ODL and demand for XRP for other uses will be exponential.  Rate of release is limited to linear 1 billion a month, but in reality much slower and under the control of owners who have a vested interest in making the price go up.  On the other end of the scale people lose their keys and lock up XRP in long term holds.  MM and banks are also likely to stock pile XRP.

Jed is  a problem, as are hoards stolen in scams (but the scammers seem more responsible than Jed)

BTC is mined ever month and that is absorbed by the markets.

Edited September 22, 2020 by Julian_Williams

[tony71 1,051]

11 hours ago, Flintstone said:

But when you are......

 

Ahhhh yes that explains it. He’s a disgruntled poor kid with no experience and now is trying to deter everyone else from buying at these amazing prices. 😂

[JJJ2 401]

1 hour ago, Julian_Williams said:

I see your method of thinking, which to my mind is a narrow way of looking at how these markets work.  When adoption happens the rate of adoption of ODL and demand for XRP for other uses will be exponential.  Rate of release is limited to linear 1 billion a month, but in reality much slower and under the control of owners who have a vested interest in making the price go up.  On the other end of the scale people lose their keys and lock up XRP in long term holds.  MM and banks are also likely to stock pile XRP.

Jed is  a problem, as are hoards stolen in scams (but the scammers seem more responsible than Jed)

BTC is mined ever month and that is absorbed by the markets.

Julian, I always play safe. So I take the worst case. But I also think that the rate or release will not remain linear.

The point is that nobody is able to say how fast it will change. In the next months we will see how fast the new excrows are absorbed by the market and so we'll be abl to update the function: maybe quadratic? or the 3rd power? or really exponential as you state?

 

I have made a simulation with a parabolic rate of release fitted to three data points taken from the past months.

In that case I get not 244 months, but only 148 months, that is less than 12 years.

And if it goes at the 3rd power than it will be much faster.

[Eric123 8,968]

Bitcoin has been above $10k for49 out of the last 56 days and has currently been above $10k for 12 straight days.   Bollinger Bands are tightening.  Hash Rate is 4th highest ever.  Progress continues.  If Bitcoin breaks to the upside after this consolidation $10k will be set as the floor.  

[BillyOckham 3,531]

6 hours ago, JJJ2 said:

I have made a simulation with a parabolic rate of release fitted to three data points taken from the past months.

I applaud your effort to quantify it but I seriously doubt it is possible to achieve a sensible result of any prediction in this area.

It is almost a binary thing I think.  
Either XRP will wallow like the present and dribble out till the world loses interest,  or it will at some point experience exponential growth and the whole landscape changes.  At that point any trends predicted using the pre growth data will be obsolete.

So to me any escrow analysis at this stage is pointless and fruitless.

[JJJ2 401]

13 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

I applaud your effort to quantify it but I seriously doubt it is possible to achieve a sensible result of any prediction in this area.

It is almost a binary thing I think.  
Either XRP will wallow like the present and dribble out till the world loses interest,  or it will at some point experience exponential growth and the whole landscape changes.  At that point any trends predicted using the pre growth data will be obsolete.

So to me any escrow analysis at this stage is pointless and fruitless.

I agree.