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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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Just taking the time to say a huge thank you to you @Eric123. I have been reading this thread daily for a long time now. I don't often sign in to post something so this thank you and acknowledgment of

Well guys for those of you that got in late 2017, this is what the beginning of a Bull Market feels like.  There will be ups and downs of course, but it will get much crazier with much higher valuatio

I was a bit bored, so I decided to analyse the reactions in the first 404(!) pages of this thread. In those 404 pages, 3938 comments received a reaction, and in total there were 11515 reactions g

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6 hours ago, WarChest said:

Seriously Seriously worried about the economy after Covid lockdown. Sooner or later the piper needs to be paid.

Sorry. Didn’t mean to hijack the thread

It's not a Hijack, rather it's a legit correlation that data continues to build upon and consider, while the actions being taken by central banks should be highly contradicting the correlation. 

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I highly appreciate @Eric123's charts and hope he continues to post them.  In my opinion I think BTC will continue to be volatile with socio economic events and skew the BTC curve. It could accelerate it as well (insert speculation here).

VET has become my 2nd largest bag with its recent pump though I enjoyed it more when it was less popular with moon boys talking about it.  Solid use case just like XRP.

XRP is still a heavy bag but think it needs USA regulatory clarity that I wish would have further progressed by now.  Bigger issues are taking away from that. Speaking as an American, international countries financial centers can definitely take that throne away.

Other high market cap cryptos have their own potential as well.

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Regulation is without doubt required before the wider public and the Mainstream feels confident enough to invest in Crypto.

Even I who has earned a living in Tech, still have reservations that if XRP moons, will I be able to transfer that in to Fiat or Will an exchange collapse under the weight of withdrawals at key value milestones once my crypto is transferred to it?

When my friends ask me that question, I cannot answer with certainty.

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17 minutes ago, WarChest said:

Even I who has earned a living in Tech, still have reservations that if XRP moons, will I be able to transfer that in to Fiat or Will an exchange collapse under the weight of withdrawals at key value milestones once my crypto is transferred to it?

Not wanting to divert thread but just mentioning...  I think ODL enabled exchanges will be most likely to be capable of providing the liquidity to cash out some or all of your XRP.
 

On BTC and it’s apparent correlation to shares...  if it had managed to hold value while the sharemarkets fell,  then its store of value proposition would have been strengthened,  but unfortunately it was highly correlated so that has undermined investors confidence in it to some extent in my opinion.

So I agree that Eric’s charts are most welcome and informative when not affected by the larger market,  but they don’t have the last word unfortunately because of that correlation to shares (in my opinion).  And the printing money, share buyback by bailed out companies cannot last forever...  the piper must indeed be paid.

And as BTC goes, then so goes the rest of crypto.  Sadly.

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Bitcoin has now been above the Down Trend Line for 20 Days.  Bollinger Bands continue to tighten, they usually don't stay this tight without breaking. In regards to the correlation with the equities markets, yeah there is no denying crypto's crashed in early March with the rest of the markets.  Over the long term it will be interesting to see how this remains.  I don't think this will continue.  Equities are mainly held up by Central Bank monetary policy and Government Spending - all of which is also good for Crypto but for the opposite reason, so in my opinion even if the asset inflation in equities caused by Central Banks evaporates cryptos should continue up. 

Anyway here is what some people are saying about the correlation between bitcoin and stocks. 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-research-finds-bitcoin-correlated-to-stocks-but-not-for-long

BTC 6 16 2020.png

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3 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

In regards to the correlation with the equities markets, yeah there is no denying crypto's crashed in early March with the rest of the markets.  Over the long term it will be interesting to see how this remains. 

this doesn't have any statistical significance at all,

but

1 guy I personally know, did sell a couple of BTC when S&P500 started to crash because he wanted to buy stocks at discount 

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Interesting time approaching (circled in white)...

1215003241_btc6-16-20.thumb.png.f6918eb6c8563dbc63887a5ed65f2f59.png

Price already crossed the first FLD (red) which is the early warning signal. Now if it can continue and cross the second (yellow FLD) we should see a push up to around $10,000 again. If we break through there, +/- $10,200 and $10,600 are likely resistance.

In addition, there is a triple cma cross looming and as such the price is close to the mean.

We are also still in an uptrend.

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30 minutes ago, Dario_o said:

this doesn't have any statistical significance at all,

but

1 guy I personally know, did sell a couple of BTC when S&P500 started to crash because he wanted to buy stocks at discount 

There were also stories at the time regarding the liquidation of equity margin collateral which included significant crypto positions.

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13 minutes ago, jMusic said:

Interesting time approaching (circled in white)...

1215003241_btc6-16-20.thumb.png.f6918eb6c8563dbc63887a5ed65f2f59.png

Price already crossed the first FLD (red) which is the early warning signal. Now if it can continue and cross the second (yellow FLD) we should see a push up to around $10,000 again. If we break through there, +/- $10,200 and $10,600 are likely resistance.

In addition, there is a triple cma cross looming and as such the price is close to the mean.

We are also still in an uptrend.

I'm am still new to TA. I'm not exactly sure what you are implying on the last 2 points. Care to expand a bit more please?

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2 hours ago, Sihtegroftnod said:

I'm am still new to TA. I'm not exactly sure what you are implying on the last 2 points. Care to expand a bit more please?

Of course, though I'm no expert (is anyone :) ).

It's based on Hurst cycles, ie. price is the sum of waves of various frequencies and amplitudes, which utilizes displaced simple moving averages. The cma (blue, green and fuchsia centered MA's) are displaced backwards half a cycle and envelopes calculated around them. The FLD's are the price displaced forward by half a cycle (and others). The triple cma cross is significant because it usually occurs half-way during a move, so you can estimate where/when the move will end. The uptrend is the dotted white line (called a VTL by Hurst with very specific rules).

If you check out some of my previous posts there is more info there too including how waves combine to form price. You should also be able to find Hurst's books including "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" plus his whole "Cycles Course" in pdf form on the internet.

I've written a script in Trading View that automates most of this and I did offer to post the code if anyone was interested, but nobody was !

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You'll need to create a new script within Trading View (a free account works just fine), copy-paste the code and then apply it to your chart. Click the settings icon on the script and make sure the tf on the script matches the chart, then select whatever features you want...

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © jmusic

//@version=4
study("FLD2", overlay=true)
timeFrame = input(title="Chart TF", defval="1H", options=["15m", "30m", "1H", "4H", "1D", "1W"])
show1 = input(false, "FLD 1")
fld1_length = input(6, title="FLD Length")
show2 = input(false, "FLD 2")
fld2_length = input(19, title="FLD2 Length")
show3 = input(false, "FLD 3")
fld3_length = input(25, title="FLD3 Length")
show4 =input(false, title="sma")
sma_length = input(200, title="sma length")
show8 = input(false, title="Octaves")
show9 = input(false, title="CMAs")
show10 = input(false, title="CMA Envelopes")
show5 = input(false, title="Fib envelopes")
show7 = input(false, title="Simple envelopes")
show6 = input(false, title="FLD sma")
FLDsma_length = input(6, title="FLDsma length")

Pave = (high + low)/2
hLength = 0
envLength = 0
envCoeff = 0.0
cmaE1 = 0
cmaE2 = 0
cmaE3 = 0

if timeFrame=="15m"
    hLength := 6000
    cmaE1 := 16
    cmaE2 := 84
    cmaE3 := 384
    envLength := 141
    envCoeff := 1.5
if timeFrame=="30m"
    hLength := 5000
    cmaE1 := 24
    cmaE2 := 120
    cmaE3 := 256
    envLength := 141
    envCoeff := 1.75
if timeFrame=="1H"
    hLength := 3000
    cmaE1 := 32
    cmaE2 := 128
    cmaE3 := 256
    envLength := 119
    envCoeff := 2.5
if timeFrame=="4H"
    hLength := 2000
    cmaE1 := 8
    cmaE2 := 24
    cmaE3 := 128
    envLength := 247
    envCoeff := 2.4
if timeFrame=="1D"
    hLength := 500
    cmaE1 := 8
    cmaE2 := 13
    cmaE3 := 48
    envLength := 379
    envCoeff := 3
if timeFrame=="1W"
    hLength := 52
    cmaE1 := 2
    cmaE2 := 6
    cmaE3 := 9
    envLength :=67
    envCoeff := 3.75

priceHigh = highest(hLength)
priceLow = lowest(hLength)

HLdelta = priceHigh - priceLow
Octave = HLdelta/8
env = Octave/3
Oct0 = priceLow
Oct1 = Oct0 + Octave
Oct2 = Oct1 + Octave
Oct3 = Oct2 + Octave
Oct4 = Oct3 + Octave
Oct5 = Oct4 + Octave
Oct6 = Oct5 + Octave
Oct7 = Oct6 + Octave
Oct8 = priceHigh

Psma = sma(Pave, sma_length)
FLDsma = sma(Pave, FLDsma_length)
E1 = cmaE1
E2 = cmaE2
E3 = cmaE3

cma1 = sma(Pave, E1)
cma2 = sma(Pave, E2)
cma3 = sma(Pave, E3)
cmaEnv1H = cma1 + (Octave/4)
cmaEnv1L = cma1 - (Octave/4)
cmaEnv2H = cma2 + (Octave/2)
cmaEnv2L = cma2 - (Octave/2)
cmaEnv3H = cma3 + Octave
cmaEnv3L = cma3 - Octave
oCMA1 = round(cmaE1/2)
oCMA2 = round(cmaE2/2)
oCMA3 = round(cmaE3/2)

plot(show1 and Pave ? Pave : na, color=color.red, linewidth=2, transp=0, offset=fld1_length)
plot(show2 and Pave ? Pave : na, color=color.yellow, linewidth=2, transp=0, offset=fld2_length)
plot(show3 and Pave ? Pave : na, color=color.blue, linewidth=2, transp=0, offset=fld3_length)
plot(show4 and Psma ? Psma : na, color=color.aqua, linewidth=2, transp=20)
plot(show6 and FLDsma ? FLDsma : na, color=color.orange, linewidth=2, transp=20, offset=fld2_length)

plot(show9 and cma1 ? cma1 : na, color=color.fuchsia, linewidth=3,  transp=0, offset=-oCMA1)
plot(show9 and cma2 ? cma2 : na, color=color.green, linewidth=3,  transp=0, offset=-oCMA1)
plot(show9 and cma3 ? cma3 : na, color=color.blue, linewidth=3,  transp=0, offset=-oCMA1)
cma1HPlot = plot(show10 and cmaEnv1H ? cmaEnv1H : na, color=color.fuchsia,linewidth=1, transp=30, offset=-oCMA1)
cma1LPlot = plot(show10 and cmaEnv1L ? cmaEnv1L : na, color=color.fuchsia,linewidth=1, transp=30, offset=-oCMA1)
cma2HPlot = plot(show10 and cmaEnv2H ? cmaEnv2H : na, color=color.green,linewidth=1, transp=10, offset=-oCMA1)
cma2LPlot = plot(show10 and cmaEnv2L ? cmaEnv2L : na, color=color.green,linewidth=1, transp=10, offset=-oCMA1)
cma3HPlot = plot(show10 and cmaEnv3H ? cmaEnv3H : na, color=color.blue,linewidth=1, transp=20, offset=-oCMA1)
cma3LPlot = plot(show10 and cmaEnv3L ? cmaEnv3L : na, color=color.blue,linewidth=1, transp=20, offset=-oCMA1)

fill(cma3HPlot, cma3LPlot, color=color.navy, transp = 85)
fill(cma2HPlot, cma2LPlot, color=color.green, transp = 80)
fill(cma1HPlot, cma1LPlot, color=color.purple, transp = 65)

envSMA = sma(Pave, envLength)
envH1 = envSMA + (env*envCoeff)
envH2 = envH1 + (env*envCoeff)
envH3 = envH2 + (env*envCoeff)
envL1 = envSMA - (env*envCoeff)
envL2 = envL1 - (env*envCoeff)
envL3 = envL2 - (env*envCoeff)

plot(show7 and envSMA ? envSMA : na, color=color.fuchsia, linewidth=3,  transp=40)
plot(show7 and envH1 ? envH1 : na, color=#ef5350, linewidth=3,  transp=60)
plot(show7 and envH2 ? envH2 : na, color=#81c784, linewidth=3,  transp=70)
plot(show7 and envH3 ? envH3 : na, color=#8ecbfd, linewidth=3,  transp=80)
plot(show7 and envL1 ? envL1 : na, color=#ef5350, linewidth=3,  transp=60)
plot(show7 and envL2 ? envL2 : na, color=#81c784, linewidth=3,  transp=70)
plot(show7 and envL3 ? envL3 : na, color=#8ecbfd, linewidth=3,  transp=80)

plot(show8 and priceLow ? priceLow : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, transp=60, offset=15)
plot(show8 and Oct1 ? Oct1 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, transp=85, offset=15)
plot(show8 and Oct2 ? Oct2 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, transp=80, offset=15)
plot(show8 and Oct3 ? Oct3 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, transp=70, offset=15)
plot(show8 and Oct4 ? Oct4 : na, color=#311b92, linewidth=2, transp=50, offset=15)
plot(show8 and Oct5 ? Oct5 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, transp=70, offset=15)
plot(show8 and Oct6 ? Oct6 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, transp=80, offset=15)
plot(show8 and Oct7 ? Oct7 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, transp=85, offset=15)
plot(show8 and priceHigh ? priceHigh : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, transp=60, offset=15)

flength = 200
fsrc = hlc3
fmult = 3.0
fbasis = vwma(fsrc, flength)
fdev = fmult * stdev(fsrc, flength)
upper_1= fbasis + (0.236*fdev)
upper_2= fbasis + (0.382*fdev)
upper_3= fbasis + (0.5*fdev)
upper_4= fbasis + (0.618*fdev)
upper_5= fbasis + (0.764*fdev)
upper_6= fbasis + (1*fdev)
lower_1= fbasis - (0.236*fdev)
lower_2= fbasis - (0.382*fdev)
lower_3= fbasis - (0.5*fdev)
lower_4= fbasis - (0.618*fdev)
lower_5= fbasis - (0.764*fdev)
lower_6= fbasis - (1*fdev)
plot(show5 and fbasis ? fbasis : na, color=color.fuchsia, linewidth=2)
p1 = plot(show5 and upper_1 ? upper_1 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.236",transp=60)
p2 = plot(show5 and upper_2 ? upper_2 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.382",transp=60)
p3 = plot(show5 and upper_3 ? upper_3 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.5",transp=60)
p4 = plot(show5 and upper_4 ? upper_4 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.618",transp=60)
p5 = plot(show5 and upper_5 ? upper_5 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.764",transp=60)
p6 = plot(show5 and upper_6 ? upper_6 : na, color=color.red, linewidth=2, title="1",transp=60)
p13 = plot(show5 and lower_1 ? lower_1 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.236",transp=60)
p14 = plot(show5 and lower_2 ? lower_2 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.382",transp=60)
p15 = plot(show5 and lower_3 ? lower_3 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.5",transp=60)
p16 = plot(show5 and lower_4 ? lower_4 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.618",transp=60)
p17 = plot(show5 and lower_5 ? lower_5 : na, color=color.white, linewidth=1, title="0.764",transp=60)
p18 = plot(show5 and lower_6 ? lower_6 : na, color=color.green, linewidth=2, title="1",transp=60)

 

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