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Eric123

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

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Hindsight loves to mock me mercilessly. I attempted a limit order at $1.04 for OMG three days ago and should have just done a market order to jump in around $1.10 in the early trading of its Coinbase Pro debut. Hindsight laughed even harder when OMG briefly went to $4.55 last night, even though I know I wouldn't have held it that long. When I consult him for his input and opinion on tomorrow's trades, however, he is strangely reticent and non-committal.  

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On 5/21/2020 at 3:38 PM, Eric123 said:

 

@De_Graaf the 1k dump on Bitstamp (which a lot of Twitter is attributing to the supposed Satoshi wallet scare) caused an immediate drop to $9,100k which rebounded quickly.  The alts I follow had corresponding big dumps of their own though it is impossible to tell how much of this volume is legitimate.  I doubt the 1k dump was related to the tweet and was probably just regular whale activity used to trigger stop losses.     

 

Thank you for the clarification.

Gossip talk aside, regarding that tweet and whatnot, I've brought that question up for the simple cause and effect. I mean, on this thread you track and extrapolate price predictions based on various means. Aren't you at all perpexled by the fact that a single entity can whimsicly decide in an instance to bring the tiny amount of 10 mil usd to market and tank the price for 10%? 

Not to even consider a broader perspective where automated arbitrage, to name a single thing among many,  should not allow this to even occur.

It is quite unbeliveable to me. From a speculators' point of view this is fantastic, unimaginably so, as the very same thing can occur as easily in the other direction. 

From a more practical/tehnical pov it is depressing, to say the least. It's been a decade already and lot of things have happened during that time. Nonetheless, it still behaves like a liferaft in a hurricane. Perhaps this sentiment is more a reflection of my own expectations rather than actuality.

At the end of the day, eventually, someone has to own (hold) this asset, for whatever purpose we generally describe as utility. I am speaking for all digital coins here, not just bc. Theoretically, one could device an approach with xrp, given its properties, where it is not required to keep any and still use it, like a hot potato, but that still defers risk to someone else.

Bottom line is, as long as events like these occur, proper usage will not. 

Even activities, such as the ones in this thread, concerned with price predictions are rendered extremly difficult or potentially meaningless. How would you account for the intentions of a single entity to make such effects?  And yes, i'm aware that the content here is made for fun, but even fun should not be an excercise in futility.

Cheers, and sorry for the mild derailment from the topic at hand.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, De_Graaf said:

Aren't you at all perpexled by the fact that a single entity can whimsicly decide in an instance to bring the tiny amount of 10 mil usd to market and tank the price for 10%? 

To be fair it was 10 mil usd on Bitstamp alone.  I haven't gone through the other exchanges but Bitstamp, Kraken, ItBit and Coinbase are used to price the CFTC futures price so they were probably involved. Also other major exchanges like Binnance would also have to be involved. so lets say probably $50 million is needed to crash the market.  It's true that Bitcoin does not have a ton of liquidity but a lot of markets would have a hard time absorbing that kind of selling all at once. Bitcoin doesn't have specialists making a market for buys and sells so it sometimes happens that all the bids get taken out with a big market order, but the price rebounds. 

As price increases so does liquidity.  I think a good question to ask to determine the potential price of Bitcoin is - what price does it need to reach to have enough liquidity so that one entity cannot crash the price.  I think it shows that we are a long way away from the top.     

Look at it this way -  in 2016 what would a $50 million market sell order have done to the price.  You don't have to look, I'll tell you.  It would have crushed it. Today if that happens it moves down 10% for a few minutes then rebounds and finishes the day down like 5%.  In another 4 years it will take a $500 million market sell order to do the same.  And so on and so forth.  

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39 minutes ago, Tiamat said:

I saw that the hash rate of btc is declining significantly, how will this affect the price?

Isn't it because weak miners die out as as result of the halving? This is temporarily if so.

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4 minutes ago, WillGetThere said:

Isn't it because weak miners die out as as result of the halving? This is temporarily if so.

Right, but at the same time I assume that those miners are selling their btc to cover their loss? Thus the decline in price

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Tiamat said:

I saw that the hash rate of btc is declining significantly, how will this affect the price?

The hash rate doesn't directly effect price but a lower hash causes longer block times so that the block reward, new 6.25 bitcoins, are not created every 10 minutes but could take as much as 100% longer.  The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks or approximately every 2 weeks so that an average of a 10 minute bock time is maintained..   https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

So a lower block rate causes less new bitcoins providing upward pressure on the price.

If miners have a stash of bitcoins they need to dump that would certainly drop the price but if they are not running a profitable operation they would most likely hoard their coins and wait to sell at a higher price or just shut off their operation.

There are other factors to consider rather than pure economic ones when viewing hash rate. See this article.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-strikes-down-10-of-global-btc-hashrate-who-will-pick-up-the-slack

Overall though Hash rate can be viewed as investment in the bitcoin ecosystem and other than the volatility around the 4 year halving disruptions it has been in increasing.

Edited by Eric123

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22 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

The hash rate doesn't directly effect price but a lower hash causes longer block times so that the block reward, new 6.25 bitcoins, are not created every 10 minutes but could take as much as 100% longer.  The difficulty is adjusted every blocks or approximately every 2 weeks so that an average of a 10 minute bock time is maintained..   https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

So a lower block rate causes less new bitcoins providing upward pressure on the price.

If miners have a stash of bitcoins they need to dump that would certainly drop the price but if they are not running a profitable operation they would most likely hoard their coins and wait to sell at a higher price or just shut off their operation.

There are other factors to consider rather than pure economic ones when viewing hash rate. See this article.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-strikes-down-10-of-global-btc-hashrate-who-will-pick-up-the-slack

Overall though Hash rate can be viewed as investment in the bitcoin ecosystem and other than the volatility around the 4 year halving disruptions it has been in increasing.

Thankyou for the explanation!!

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Archbob said:

I actually think we are heading lower on BTC. It depends on how much Tether they print per day though.

I think we are entering a stage where it goes either way, yes I know that’s the natural thinking but if we start getting below 8k things could go back down to the low 6k which wouldn’t.be good for XRP, unless you’re getting cheaper Zerps

Edited by Trentsteel

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2 hours ago, Tiamat said:

Right, but at the same time I assume that those miners are selling their btc to cover their loss? Thus the decline in price

This has happened with all the halving, but this time it never gained as much as in the past, one of the reasons, many don’t expect such a big decline as what has gone before ..... Corona kind of ducked things up 

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