Jump to content

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, AlejoMoreno said:

And if people run out of their savings then they will continue to liquidiate their digital asset positiions.

Honestly almost no one owns bitcoin compared to the equity  markets..  Supposedly only 500,000,-1,000,000 people own an entire bitcoin.

52% of Americans own stocks.  I can see a lot of regular people that own stocks running out of money and needing to liquidate - but doubt the same would happen in the bitcoin/crypto market because not many people even own it and the ones that do own it don't have a large portion of their worth tied up in it.  Traders yeah but they are basically gamblers and they are a small portion of the population.

I can picture people needing to liquidate their 401k because they are out of work, easier than I can picture people even having Bitcoin in their 401k.

 

Edited by Eric123
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 7.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Just taking the time to say a huge thank you to you @Eric123. I have been reading this thread daily for a long time now. I don't often sign in to post something so this thank you and acknowledgment of

I was a bit bored, so I decided to analyse the reactions in the first 404(!) pages of this thread. In those 404 pages, 3938 comments received a reaction, and in total there were 11515 reactions g

@Eric123 My perspective is a bit different;  in my opinion the alt season begins once BTC momentum tapers off and the price becomes stuck.  While this may take place after BTC hits some ridiculous ATH

Posted Images

41 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Honestly almost no one owns bitcoin compared to the equity  markets..  Supposedly only 500,000,-1,000,000 people own an entire bitcoin.

52% of Americans own stocks.  I can see a lot of regular people that own stocks running out of money and needing to liquidate - but doubt the same would happen in the bitcoin/crypto market because not many people even own it and the ones that do own it don't have a large portion of their worth tied up in it.  Traders yeah but they are basically gamblers and they are a small portion of the population.

I can picture people needing to liquidate their 401k because they are out of work easier than I can picture people even having Bitcoin in their 401k.

 

This is a good point.  I own a small business and have adequate emergency funds but none-the-less when I saw the plummet happening I switched over to USD until we see how COVID plays out.  4 weeks vs 6 months vs 18 months is going to make a massive difference in how the market recovers - including my business and many others that have come to a grinding halt.

Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Direboarder said:

This is a good point.  I own a small business and have adequate emergency funds but none-the-less when I saw the plummet happening I switched over to USD until we see how COVID plays out.  4 weeks vs 6 months vs 18 months is going to make a massive difference in how the market recovers - including my business and many others that have come to a grinding halt.

I'm with you on that. 2020 won't be a record profit year for me as I hoped but I also don't want to have to bleed out my emergency funds. I'm currently working on some paperwork to see if I can file a BI claim for Business Interruption, due to the lost profits as a result of COVID-19. The difficulty will be if I can quantity the lost revenue that I have incurred as a result of the virus. Its almost easier r if I just shut my operations down completely that way I can just do a YoY comparison instead of operating at partial capacity.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, AlejoMoreno said:

I agree. If people continue to be out of work or behind on bills due to this COVID-19 issue then I don't see where the cash will come from to pump the market. Digital assets were liquidated to cover equity positions (in addition to probable whale activity that magnified the drop to take advantage of that event).

And if people run out of their savings then they will continue to liquidiate their digital asset positiions.

lots of people will continue to receive wages whilst not going to restaurants, buying holidays etc...

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Archbob said:

Basically what Ripple-Stiltskin said but it could come back in the fall with a vengeance and RNA viruses can always mutate.

They say first indications are that it is fairly stable.  It has mutated into two varieties - L and S, but both would be hit by one vaccine

Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. 

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. 

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. 

 

Very good insight and information! Thank you for taking the time to present. The UK approach is very interesting. I've neglected to see how other countries are approaching the virus. Based on your information I think long term the UK could be taking the better approach at the expense of the short term time frame. Given that the people at greatest risk are elderly and people with compromised immune systems  (these people will likely die sooner than everyone else anyway) I think their approach could make sense. I'm going to read some more about this tomorrow; I find the difference in the two approaches fascinating.  

Letting immunity build seems like a more favorable approach because as @Archbob mentioned, the virus will come back given until a vaccine is created.

Edited by AlejoMoreno
Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

FYI: or skip if it is TLDR

greetz

RS

 

Goldman Sachs hosted an Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. 

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. 

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. 

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. 

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. 

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. 

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. 

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. 

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

I have not seen that data yet.  That looks promising news if it really is what the data is showing, especially as I had been worried that the virus has been spreading in the Australian summer.   I have heard that common colds die in the summer because they are hitting residual immunity plus heat, but the corona virus may not be so hampered since residual immunity is currently nearly zero. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

I have not seen that data yet.  That looks promising news if it really is what the data is showing, especially as I had been worried that the virus has been spreading in the Australian summer.   I have heard that common colds die in the summer because they are hitting residual immunity plus heat, but the corona virus may not be so hampered since residual immunity is currently nearly zero. 

I’m a little more pessimistic than Goldman however. Still many countries are underestimating the impact of exponential growth of a ( new, unknown) infection. Taking actions on actual info instead on extrapolated projections ( and experiences in China and Italy). 

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, AlejoMoreno said:

Letting immunity build seems like a more favorable approach because as @Archbob mentioned, the virus will come back given until a vaccine is created.

3 scenario’s versus IC capacity: do nothing, social distancing, lockdown

3D4BB0C4-0B5D-4529-B317-76EE3F4B7607.jpeg

Edited by Ripple-Stiltskin
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

I’m a little more pessimistic than Goldman however. Still many countries are underestimating the impact of exponential growth of a ( new, unknown) infection. Taking actions on actual info instead on extrapolated projections ( and experiences in China and Italy). 

Bro, you know that China is underreported. They aren't even close to recovery.

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-fake-whistleblowers-191300391.html

The real number of cases and deaths is likely to be 10x what CCTV is reporting.

I still think the stock market will dump some more before it bottoms.

Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Archbob said:

Bro, you know that China is underreported. They aren't even close to recovery.

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-fake-whistleblowers-191300391.html

The real number of cases and deaths is likely to be 10x what CCTV is reporting.

I still think the stock market will dump some more before it bottoms.

I speak with my friend that lives in China every day and they are starting to lift quarantines and send people back to work.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Archbob said:

Bro, you know that China is underreported. They aren't even close to recovery.

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-fake-whistleblowers-191300391.html

The real number of cases and deaths is likely to be 10x what CCTV is reporting.

I still think the stock market will dump some more before it bottoms.

A narrative being pushed by the American media.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.