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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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1 hour ago, AlejoMoreno said:

So “a higher price would needed” meaning the price will raise itself to honor the miners and/or miners will manipulate to force the price higher?

I understand your logic but don’t agree. But it makes since given how cryptocurrency space seems to work.

I’m sure price will go parabolic at some point no matter what, and we can choose to attribute that to the, then ATH hitting, hash rate or anything else at the time.

Miners will manipulate.. Well not so much manipulate per se but reduce supply to push price up. Current hash battle makes sense because if you increase the hash rate now, you can get more for your "work" (2x more) as opposed increasing after 69 days. To a great extent miners set the price by controlling supply.

hashrate increased by 2.5x since June 2019, the supply will be cut by half in 69 days. We can look at an adjusted model for 5x the price we have seen in June 2019 for BTC after the halving..of course more would be needed if hashrate keeps growing. I am assuming 50K ish price for BTC.

Hopefully we can get 10K sats for XRP - 5$.

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Well guys for those of you that got in late 2017, this is what the beginning of a Bull Market feels like.  There will be ups and downs of course, but it will get much crazier with much higher valuatio

Just taking the time to say a huge thank you to you @Eric123. I have been reading this thread daily for a long time now. I don't often sign in to post something so this thank you and acknowledgment of

I was a bit bored, so I decided to analyse the reactions in the first 404(!) pages of this thread. In those 404 pages, 3938 comments received a reaction, and in total there were 11515 reactions g

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We keep marching toward the halving.  I'm hopeful that price will recover and the moving averages will not break bearish. For a few minutes the price was rocking but it was short lived.

@AlejoMoreno  If you zoom out on the graph, bitcoin has gone up exponentially and so has hash rate.  As far as I can tell, hash rate leads price.

@Caracappa an @ed1  I don't think miners manipulate the price or are even able to.  As of now 1,800 Bitcoin are mined a day and those Bitcoin are spread across mining pools and those pools are made up of many individuals and companies.  There is not one single entity gobbling up all the new Bitcoins.  Even if there were however 1,800 Bitcoins even if they were all dumped or horded are not enough to move the price.  Over 1,600,000 Bitcoin are traded a day.  Where are they getting all this Bitcoin?? Is it all fake sells?? Maybe.  But the amount mined a day is one tenth of one percent of the amount traded a day.

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3 hours ago, Eric123 said:

We keep marching toward the halving.  I'm hopeful that price will recover and the moving averages will not break bearish. For a few minutes the price was rocking but it was short lived.

@AlejoMoreno  If you zoom out on the graph, bitcoin has gone up exponentially and so has hash rate.  As far as I can tell, hash rate leads price.

@Caracappa an @ed1  I don't think miners manipulate the price or are even able to.  As of now 1,800 Bitcoin are mined a day and those Bitcoin are spread across mining pools and those pools are made up of many individuals and companies.  There is not one single entity gobbling up all the new Bitcoins.  Even if there were however 1,800 Bitcoins even if they were all dumped or horded are not enough to move the price.  Over 1,600,000 Bitcoin are traded a day.  Where are they getting all this Bitcoin?? Is it all fake sells?? Maybe.  But the amount mined a day is one tenth of one percent of the amount traded a day.

 

 

Just because 1,800 Bitcoin are mined each day doesn't mean that miners aren't able to manipulate the market. The amount of Bitcoin mined everyday has nothing to do with the amount of cash that they could have sitting on the side lines. Keep in mind that miners, mine Bitcoin at a profit and are not spending all of their money on operating expenses.

We saw a pure example last spring where 100 Million USD was injected into the market algorithmically to force up the price of Bitcoin. Nobody has a clue what entity did that.

If a portion of those 1,800 Bitcoin are sold everyday, that could easily end up being hundreds of millions of USD that could be used to pay for operating fees and/or saved to maniuplate the market.

Lets say one-eighth of those Bitcoin (225) were sold and the cash from the 225 Bitcoin was saved and not needed to pay any expenses. In one day you have 2 million dollars. (Assuming Bitcoin sells for $9,000 on average) In 2 months you have 100 million dollars. There could easily be a lot of money sitting on the sidelines ready to force the market when needed. Selling 225 Bitcoin a day for the purpose of saving the cash still leaves plenty of Bitcoin to pay for whatever expenses there are.

 

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@AlejoMoreno well anyone with enough money could manipulate the markets but miners are not just one entity. Mining pools are made up of a lot of different people lending their mining ability.  When I was mining with an S-7 I was in SlushPool which has 4.7% of the hash rate but I was getting a small fraction of the total mined.  The largest pool  Poolin has under 18% of the hash rate which would get about 324 Bitcoin a day  - but it has 100,000 sub accounts  - now obviously that isn't distributed evenly, but even the largest mining farm is not getting a significant portion of the 1,800 bitcoin mined a day and even if it was that entity is probably owned by many investors.  Couple that with the amount of bitcoin traded a day and it is basically insignificant .    Coin market cap lists today's trading volume of bitcoin at $42 Billion.  How much money do you need to manipulate a market that trades $42 Billion a day????  $100,000,000?  That is less than two tenths of one percent, I'm not sure that would make an impact.

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1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

@AlejoMoreno well anyone with enough money could manipulate the markets but miners are not just one entity. Mining pools are made up of a lot of different people lending their mining ability.  When I was mining with an S-7 I was in SlushPool which has 4.7% of the hash rate but I was getting a small fraction of the total mined.  The largest pool  Poolin has under 18% of the hash rate which would get about 324 Bitcoin a day  - but it has 100,000 sub accounts  - now obviously that isn't distributed evenly, but even the largest mining farm is not getting a significant portion of the 1,800 bitcoin mined a day and even if it was that entity is probably owned by many investors.  Couple that with the amount of bitcoin traded a day and it is basically insignificant .    Coin market cap lists today's trading volume of bitcoin at $42 Billion.  How much money do you need to manipulate a market that trades $42 Billion a day????  $100,000,000?  That is less than two tenths of one percent, I'm not sure that would make an impact.

The scale of all of this is mind blowing. 
Is setting up a mining operation doable/worth it for an ordinary person with like $10k to invest in the setup?

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2 hours ago, Eric123 said:

@AlejoMoreno well anyone with enough money could manipulate the markets but miners are not just one entity. Mining pools are made up of a lot of different people lending their mining ability.  When I was mining with an S-7 I was in SlushPool which has 4.7% of the hash rate but I was getting a small fraction of the total mined.  The largest pool  Poolin has under 18% of the hash rate which would get about 324 Bitcoin a day  - but it has 100,000 sub accounts  - now obviously that isn't distributed evenly, but even the largest mining farm is not getting a significant portion of the 1,800 bitcoin mined a day and even if it was that entity is probably owned by many investors.  Couple that with the amount of bitcoin traded a day and it is basically insignificant .    Coin market cap lists today's trading volume of bitcoin at $42 Billion.  How much money do you need to manipulate a market that trades $42 Billion a day????  $100,000,000?  That is less than two tenths of one percent, I'm not sure that would make an impact.

What do you mean that $100 million dollars, if executed simultaneously across various exchanges, is not enough to make an impact? It isn't insignificant based on what we've already seen.

$100 million dollars worth of orders algorithmically executed across various exchanges at the same time WAS enough to raise the market 20% in April 2019. The price of Bitcoin went from $4,000 to $5,000 in April 2019!

Of course volume was lower in April 2019 than it is now but it does not take a large of a % of daily volume to move the price as you would think.

Some of that daily volume are matching buy and sell orders that are just washes to beef up reportable activity.

Captura de pantalla 2020-03-03 a la(s) 10.59.21 p. m..png

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1 hour ago, AlejoMoreno said:

Some of that daily volume are matching buy and sell orders that are just washes to beef up reportable activity.

The numbers are very wonky.  If $100,000,000 of new money coming in moves the price 20% then that would indicate that basically all the transactions on all the exchanges are not real trades. 99.9% of the volume would have to be fake, which it might be, actually it probably is, and I don't mean on the shady exchanges, i mean all of them.  Take Litecoin for instance there are only 64,000,000 in existence but according to coin market cap, somehow 87,000,000 traded today.  Is there any way this volume cold be legitimate?  I don't think so.  i suspect if everyone tried to pull their coins of exchanges only 1 in 100 would get the coins they think they own - the other 99 would be listed as creditors when the exhanges file for bankruptcy.

@Neurotoxin  i wrote above I had an S-7, it was actually an S-9.  After it became unprofitable though I stopped doing it.  The new S-11 do turn a profit I'm pretty sure but I haven't looked into it.  Check out the new Bitmain Antminer's  calculate the hashrate you'll get, calulate your energy cost, factor in the cost of the machines then go to .https://whattomine.com/  It will tell you the most profitable coin and the expected payout.

 

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The bollinger bands look really messy don't they.  Anyway nothing too dramatic today, we are moving along toward the halving - Less than 69 days away, hash rate is moving up. 

Read a tweet by Peter Schiff how bitcoin didn't move up even with the 50 basis pt drop - this guy is not qualified to talk about Bitcoin and he should really just keep quite and stop embarrassing himself.

Anyway here's the chart.

3 4 2020.png

Edited by Eric123
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1 hour ago, jMusic said:

If all these guru's were so good at guru-ing they would have so much money they wouldn't need (or care) to guru.

Throw Schiff in the round filing basket with Cramer...

guru.jpg.7c4b771e3068edb76182f85a5c0f62dc.jpg

I mean I wouldn’t call em gurus but Shiff’s net worth is $70M. Probably knows about as much as we do, which isn’t much. 

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48 minutes ago, Neurotoxin said:

I mean I wouldn’t call em gurus but Shiff’s net worth is $70M. Probably knows about as much as we do, which isn’t much. 

Warren Buffett is worth $81 billion but I wouldn't take his advise on crypto or technology.   If you know how to not lose access to your crypto wallet you know more than Schiff knows about crypto.

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32 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Warren Buffett is worth $81 billion but I wouldn't take his advise on crypto or technology.   If you know how to not lose access to your crypto wallet you know more than Schiff knows about crypto.

Agreed. What I mean to say is they know a thing or two about finance in general but it really has nothing to do with crypto markets, and neither does our knowledge. I've definitely learned a lot through the years but this is still a VERY speculative and extremely volatile/irrational market. You pick up a few things here and there but it always ends up taking you by surprise no matter how much you know.

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2 hours ago, jMusic said:

Call me cynical but I think that Buffet and his ilk are largely successful because they have access to privileged insider information and that is a major reason why they appear to be on the right side of most transactions.

 

Nah, he made his wealth hodling value stocks for decades to get where he is at today. He comes from humble beginnings, and lives in the same house he bought 60 years ago, valued at 650,000 today.

He says if you don’t feel comfortable owning a stock for 10 years, you shouldn’t own it for 10 minutes. He is big on fundamentals.

My blockfolio is actually somewhat inspired by his strategies on conventional assets.

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