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1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

For Bitcoin 

Three indicators I am keeping an eye on.

Recent Downtrend Line

50/100 Day EMA cross over

June Downtrend Line.

 

Regarding Ripple's IPO

The main question I have is this.

Ripple has owns 50 Billion XRP which they have in escrow and they can release 1,000,000 per month.

If XRP goes to $10 that equals $500 Billion  If it goes to $20 that's $1 Trillion.

If XRP reaches either of these numbers Ripple has access to $10 billion to $20 billion per month.

The largest IPO in history was Alibaba which raised like $22 Billion.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/011215/top-10-largest-global-ipos-all-time.asp

 

So someone explain to me why Ripple will need money from an IPO If XRP reaches anywhere near these values?  Even at $1 they have access to $1 Billion a month.  

 

 

 

 

 

1 25 2020.png

They don't have "access" to that much USD value per month in your scenarios because they would not be able to sell that many XRP on the market at that price at one time.

There is too much uncertainty regarding when/IF XRP would stabilize at those prices. 

What is certain is that Ripple will need more cash at some point to continue to grow, what is not certain, is when/if XRP will reach those prices with enough associated volume to be able to absorb Ripple selling 1 billion XRP without crashing the price.

Waiting for XRP to stabilize at those prices with good volume that can absorb 1 billion XRP being dumped is beyond uncertain. XRP was over $3 over two years ago and now struggles to hold $0.2.

If they didn't go IPO and decided to wait for XRP for necessary funding then they might as well give up.

The time when XRP is at $10 and stays there while Ripple sells 1 billion XRP per month is not visible at all.

*That's not even mentioning that Ripple has claimed the price of XRP needs to be higher for ODL to function well. Needing XRP to be a higher price while also needing to sell 1 billion per month for funding purposes are opposing priorities.

Edited by AlejoMoreno
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Just taking the time to say a huge thank you to you @Eric123. I have been reading this thread daily for a long time now. I don't often sign in to post something so this thank you and acknowledgment of

Well guys for those of you that got in late 2017, this is what the beginning of a Bull Market feels like.  There will be ups and downs of course, but it will get much crazier with much higher valuatio

I was a bit bored, so I decided to analyse the reactions in the first 404(!) pages of this thread. In those 404 pages, 3938 comments received a reaction, and in total there were 11515 reactions g

59 minutes ago, AlejoMoreno said:

The time when XRP is at $10 and stays there while Ripple sells 1 billion XRP per month is not visible at all.

That seems to be what Ripple believes and it's the reason for the IPO and that's why I'm not buying any XRP. 

But also this is starting to looks more like an exit strategy than building out a company.  Over 2019 Ripple sold  $169 million 1st Quarter -  $144 million 2nd Quarter  $66 million third Quarter and $13 4th Quarter. So Ripple sells close to $400 million of XRP in a year and they still need more money?  Truthfully XRP is starting to feel a little like bitconnect to me.  

The only thing that would change my mind is if Ripple made a statement like "there is enough XRP is the ecosystem and now we are taking off the selling pressure an concentrating on raising the price of XRP so that there will be enough liquidity with the present supply".   But that would require trust in Ripple to execute that plan rather than just dump XRP and one of the reasons I got into Bitcoin to begin with is because I don't trust anyone. 

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Thoughtful comments from @Eric123.  I must admit that the actions of Ripple, combined with the stagnant price action of XRP, have me cautious of buying any more XRP.  I am not selling, mind you, but any new money that I am allocating into crypto is going into other projects, mainly as I build up BTC.  I will reiterate that I am not necessarily bearish on XRP but I am to the point where it needs to show me something to prove its viability before I consider investing anything more into it.

As for BTC (actually, XRP is showing a similar pattern too), this is a pretty convincing cup and handle formation.  For those that don't know, this is generally a bullish formation that coincides nicely with the bullish cross on the weekly MACD.

mXA4CvXb

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19 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

That seems to be what Ripple believes and it's the reason for the IPO and that's why I'm not buying any XRP. 

But also this is starting to looks more like an exit strategy than building out a company.  Over 2019 Ripple sold  $169 million 1st Quarter -  $144 million 2nd Quarter  $66 million third Quarter and $13 4th Quarter. So Ripple sells close to $400 million of XRP in a year and they still need more money?  Truthfully XRP is starting to feel a little like bitconnect to me.  

The only thing that would change my mind is if Ripple made a statement like "there is enough XRP is the ecosystem and now we are taking off the selling pressure an concentrating on raising the price of XRP so that there will be enough liquidity with the present supply".   But that would require trust in Ripple to execute that plan rather than just dump XRP and one of the reasons I got into Bitcoin to begin with is because I don't trust anyone. 

I agree. I’ve stopped buying XRP for some time now. Ripple has failed to drive value for XRP despite them saying how well everything is going. I’ve actually slightly decreased my position due to lack of tangible progress.

I have a lot more to say about this but I will wait until I have more time to respond.

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1 minute ago, Molten said:

Thoughtful comments from @Eric123.  I must admit that the actions of Ripple, combined with the stagnant price action of XRP, have me cautious of buying any more XRP.  I am not selling, mind you, but any new money that I am allocating into crypto is going into other projects, mainly as I build up BTC.  I will reiterate that I am not necessarily bearish on XRP but I am to the point where it needs to show me something to prove its viability before I consider investing anything more into it.

As for BTC (actually, XRP is showing a similar pattern too), this is a pretty convincing cup and handle formation.  For those that don't know, this is generally a bullish formation that coincides nicely with the bullish cross on the weekly MACD.

mXA4CvXb

It’s about damn time crypto starts pouring me some hot nice coffee. 

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Nothing is a sure thing but it sure sounds like an ipo is in ripples near future. One plus to that is it might happen within two years and we should have a better understanding of the future of xrp. I really feel we will know with the ipo or prior to the ipo the direction of xrp and it will be extremely bullish or hopefully not-in the toilet. The unknown future of xrp will not drag on for years-hopefully. To the people saying ten years $30, we won't have to wait that long, this is going to be settled much sooner one way or another. It would have been nice for all those YouTubers that went to ripple a few short months ago to maybe get or be given some details of this, this was in the works along with the 200 mil, maybe they did, I don't really follow any and this ipo seemed to come out of nowhere and noone really has any details on what this means to xrp. but It's a business first, no obligation to holdrs one way or another especially when there is so much money involved. I haven't decided whether to keep buying or not, I took a pause and am on the fence. I'm going to watch (as always) the price action and as the year goes on hopefully can tell something from that, I mean if the ipo is going to be good I would think the big money would know this and we would start seeing some movement and we're on to something, if we drop to single digits (if we're in a bull crypto market) we could be in trouble but in crypto who the hell knows anymore. Going by price can sometimes be a recipe for disaster.

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8 minutes ago, QWE said:

 

I would argue the theory that Ripple is now doing an IPO because they won’t be able to sell 1 billion XRP per month if the price hits 10 USD is one is the least likely.

First off, they have been strictly limiting their sales according to the volume on exchanges (0.4% of total volume in Q3 2019). If Ripple were to sell 1 billion XRP at 10 USD/XRP, the monthly volume on exchanges for XRP would have to be 2.5 trillion USD. The average daily volume for XRP would need to be 83 billion USD. If the volume actually was that high, then there would also be a good possibility the market could easily swallow up the 0.3 billion USD Ripple would be throwing into it daily. We are, however, currently far from that.

In reality, if XRP was worth 10 USD today, with a daily average volume of 200 million USD, per their own restrictions, they could only sell 80k XRP per day, or 2.4 million XRP per month. That means every month, there would be 0.997 billion XRP of the 1 billion XRP going back into an escrow.

Of course, it is doubtful the volume would stay that low with the price per XRP so high, and as we saw in the December 2017 bull run, the volume logically quickly picks up.

 

Ripple literally announced they are limiting programmatic sales in advance and has now followed through their promise. Is this not what we all wanted? Bitcoin’s estimated annual mining costs at this moment are 3.5 billion USD (https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption ), which means BTC miners have to cash out 300 million USD per month just to pay the electricity bills alone. Per Ripple’s last market report, they sold zero on the market and 13 million USD worth of XRP to institutions.

Comparing both coins, in the last 3 months, BTC miners cashed out about 900 million USD to pay for electricity, while Ripple cashed out 13 million.

Again, BTC miners cashed out 70x more USD compared to Ripple in Q4 2019.

 

You are right to trust no one and be careful in this market. But I am flabbergasted at how so many people started worrying once Ripple hinted at a possibility of an IPO. Critics always accused Ripple of selling XRP to fund their business, but the moment Ripple limits their XRP sales and finds an alternative way to get money, everyone loses their minds.

Like you, I can only speculate why they are doing an IPO. It could be to raise more money in the future, it could be a better argument against the SEC about XRP not being a security, or it could be early investors wanting liquidity on Ripple stocks to catch some profit. It could be some reason none of us yet thought of.

 

Whatever the case, any new shareholder will want what is best for XRP, because it represents the majority of the company’s current 10 billion USD valuation (as per their last investment round). Imagine being a Ripple stockholder right now. Would you not want what is best for XRP, since the price of XRP directly affects the price of the stock you are holding? If not, it would be like investing in an oil company and not caring what is happening to the price of oil on open markets.

And to conclude this long post, I would like to again highlight the fact that Ripple has obviously significantly limited their XRP sales throughout 2019, despite the fact they had 1 billion XRP available per month. What’s more, they limited their sales in correlation to volume (down from 0.4% in Q3 to 0.08% in Q4), so Ripple sold less because they chose to do so, not because they could not sell at all.

 

This means that in the following months, Ripple (by far the largest XRP holder) will basically stop their XRP sales, while BTC miners will continue to cash out about 300 million USD per month, because they still have to pay the bills. With this fact in mind, doesn’t XRP seem like a better investment, speaking purely supply/demand wise?

Hi QWE I like your posts. There are good arguments made in both sides of what the ipo means.  One thing "Ripple literally announced they are limiting programmatic sales in advance and has now followed through their promise. Is this not what we all wanted? "

 

You are right on your quote about ripple limiting sales of xrp, many people wanted that on the notion that they thought those sales were suppressing price. Well I could be missing something but to me, at least not yet, the sales didn't seem to have much of an impact on suppressing price because we havent seen much movement up since those sales have been limited. I could be ignorant and missing something here as to why and would be glad to know what I am missing.

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12 minutes ago, BravoTango said:

Hi QWE I like your posts. There are good arguments made in both sides of what the ipo means.  One thing "Ripple literally announced they are limiting programmatic sales in advance and has now followed through their promise. Is this not what we all wanted? "

 

You are right on your quote about ripple limiting sales of xrp, many people wanted that on the notion that they thought those sales were suppressing price. Well I could be missing something but to me, at least not yet, the sales didn't seem to have much of an impact on suppressing price because we havent seen much movement up since those sales have been limited. I could be ignorant and missing something here as to why and would be glad to know what I am missing.

It is hard to say what exactly moves the price, but in a speculative, unregulated and manipulated crypto market, there are probably many reasons for how the price behaves, none of them transparent or very predictable.

One thing Ripple’s last 4 quarterly market reports have shown is that Ripple sales in fact did not have a significant effect on the price to begin with. They basically lowered their sales from 170 million USD in Q1 to 13 million USD in Q4 (a reduction of over 90%), but the price did not appreciate. Luckily, XRP holders are already used to that action by now :)

My thoughts in short: crypto market is at a bottom (or close) of a hype cycle right now, many people have left, and the large crypto holders are switching between BTC and alts to further increase their holdings until the next bull market arrives. Consequently, BTC dominance is rising and altcoin prices are pretty random (but all significantly lower from their ATH). Just my personal opinion.

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1 hour ago, BravoTango said:

Well I could be missing something but to me, at least not yet, the sales didn't seem to have much of an impact on suppressing price because we havent seen much movement up since those sales have been limited. I could be ignorant and missing something here as to why and would be glad to know what I am missing.

Yes I agree...  I’ve been saying as much for quite a while.  It’s interesting to me that all the ‘Ripple is suppressIng price with their sales’ people never seem to come out and say...  “yeah I was wrong”.   How many posts turn out now to have been bs?

 

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3 hours ago, QWE said:

This means that in the following months, Ripple (by far the largest XRP holder) will basically stop their XRP sales, while BTC miners will continue to cash out about 300 million USD per month, because they still have to pay the bills. With this fact in mind, doesn’t XRP seem like a better investment, speaking purely supply/demand wise?

To be fair, we don’t actually know what miners are doing with their bitcoin. They could be holding it and using other means to pay the bills. So I don’t buy this argument. Plus the price of BTC has increased by 134% over the last 12 months, so the demand is obviously there even if they are dumping.


I do agree though that XRP is the better investment due to fundamentals. But the price performance indicates that this view is a minority one unfortunately. 

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3 minutes ago, Yakuni said:

To be fair, we don’t actually know what miners are doing with their bitcoin. They could be holding it and using other means to pay the bills. So I don’t buy this argument. Plus the price of BTC has increased by 134% over the last 12 months, so the demand is obviously there even if they are dumping.

I thought I'd seen (heard?) it said most (if not all?) the "virgin" newly minted BTC tokens are snapped up at a premium, due to its transaction history being blank.

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