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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart


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Just taking the time to say a huge thank you to you @Eric123. I have been reading this thread daily for a long time now. I don't often sign in to post something so this thank you and acknowledgment of

Well guys for those of you that got in late 2017, this is what the beginning of a Bull Market feels like.  There will be ups and downs of course, but it will get much crazier with much higher valuatio

I was a bit bored, so I decided to analyse the reactions in the first 404(!) pages of this thread. In those 404 pages, 3938 comments received a reaction, and in total there were 11515 reactions g

Excellent post.  I would add that it is reasonable to expect that the multiples in the price increases should logically continued to decrease... so the first was 221x, the next 73x, and now I would guess some were between a 10-20x would be a reasonable target this time around.  Still results in a very large number for BTC, possibly 6 digits.

Nice work @Eric123

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33 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

The State of the Union for Bitcoin – it’s Strong.

When I started this thread this day last year January 24, 2019 – Bitcoin’s price was at $3,629 moving toward a breakout of the Pennant downtrend that began after Bitcoin reached it’s all time high of around $20k in December of 2017. 

Bitcoin broke out of the downtrend on February 1, 2019 at 9:31 Eastern US time at a price of $3,548.  At that time I wrote that the bottom was in and we would move up and sideways from there.

After we broke out of the downtrend I used that point to correlate when Bitcoin would reach it’s ATH again, based on when the breakout occurred in the past cycle.  As we had broken out much sooner this cycle, I supposed that Bitcoin’s cycle would play out on a condensed timeline and that Bitcoin would retake it’s ATH of near $20k by the end of November 2019.   (I also felt bitcoin’s move would drag XRP with it and XRP would reach it’s ATH in 2019 – this did not happen.)

In February 2019 I began looking to the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMA’s for direction.  On April 6, 2019 -  the 50 Day EMA made a bullish cross (Golden Cross) of the 100 Day EMA at a price of $4,937.   These indicators were useful until the price rose so dramatically through June (as I expected - but thought would continue through November) and the 100 EMA was well above the 200 day EMA and this method was no longer useful. (except to anticipate the next downtrend). On October 3, 2019 the 50 Day EMA made a Bearish cross (Death Cross) of the 100 Day EMA at a price of 8,237

Now Bitcoin’s price is $8,473 - We have just broke out of the Downtrend that began this past June on January 12, 2020 at a price of $8,181.   Once again the 50 – 100 and 200 EMA’s are useful and approaching a Bullish Crossover.

The prior times we had a Golden Cross of the 50 and 100 Day EMA prior to the Halving occurred as followed:

50/100 Golden Cross - June 5, 2012 at a price of $5.25      which occurred 117 prior to the Halving of November 28, 2012, price at the halving was $12.12, peak of Bitcoin’s price occurred 485 Days later November 30, 2013 at a price pf $1,161

&

50/100 Golden Cross - October 20, 2015 at a price of $270 – which was 264 days prior to the Halving of July 9, 2016, price at the Halving was $657, peak of Bitcoin’s price occurred 790 days December 17, 2017 at a price of $19,721.

 At present Bitcoin is less than 109 days from it halving which is slated to occur May 12, 2020.  https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

The Bitcoin Hashrate is at it’s second highest level ever. https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate

And Bitcoin is staring at another Gold Cross of the 50 and 100 Day EMA which should occur within 10 days.

The last two cycles from the price of this cross to the peak of it’s price - Bitcoin rose 221X and 73x respectively.

When and at what price the 50 and 100 Day EMA will be crossing is something I will be watching closely.  Although the timeframe has changed since my earlier posts my belief that we will replay the cycle has not changed.  I am just as Bullish on Bitcoin as I have ever been.

If the cycle plays out sort of like it did in the past Bitcoin is looking to begin a bull run which should last for the next 1 to 2 years.    

1 24 2020.png

Nice post Eric as always thank you. Curious are you still somewhat bullish on xrp?

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32 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Honestly I don't know what to think about XRP. 

The argument that XRP will appreciate dramatically in price  had two things going for it.

1.  Ripple needs XRP to be priced high and liquid for Ripple to use it as intended for cross border payments.

2.  XRP is Ripple's main source of funding so Ripple is self motivated to raise the price of XRP.

Because Ripple recently raised $200 million in series C funding and Garlinghouse discussed going public it seems that XRP is not necessary to their funding.  So we can cross out #2.

Is it a possibility that Ripple would just abandon XRP and continue their business with just xcurrent?  Maybe.  Also what would life after Ripple look like for XRP?  Is there a community of developers for XRP that aren't employed by Ripple?  Without Ripple XRP's future seem bleak to me and it appears Ripple's ties to XRP have become weaker.

Also XRP's price action has not been encouraging.   

Honestly I'm up in the air about it.  Do we get a big pump when everything else moves, maybe, if we do it should be epic.

If XRP is declared a security or for some other reason does Ripple abandon it, Maybe.

At the moment I am not selling my XRP, but I am not buying any more either.

I'm in wait and see mode regarding XRP.  

Thanks that pretty much sums up my sentiments as well.

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1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

Honestly I don't know what to think about XRP. 

The argument that XRP will appreciate dramatically in price  had two things going for it.

1.  Ripple needs XRP to be priced high and liquid for Ripple to use it as intended for cross border payments.

2.  XRP is Ripple's main source of funding so Ripple is self motivated to raise the price of XRP.

Because Ripple recently raised $200 million in series C funding and Garlinghouse discussed going public it seems that XRP is not necessary to their funding.  So we can cross out #2.

Is it a possibility that Ripple would just abandon XRP and continue their business with just xcurrent?  Maybe.  Also what would life after Ripple look like for XRP?  Is there a community of developers for XRP that aren't employed by Ripple?  Without Ripple XRP's future seem bleak to me and it appears Ripple's ties to XRP have become weaker.

Also XRP's price action has not been encouraging.   

Honestly I'm up in the air about it.  Do we get a big pump when everything else moves, maybe, if we do it should be epic.

If XRP is declared a security or for some other reason does Ripple abandon it, Maybe.

At the moment I am not selling my XRP, but I am not buying any more either.

I'm in wait and see mode regarding XRP.  

 

Ripple may be distancing itself from XRP to make a clear case to prove that XRP is not a security.

Ripple has been pushing ODL corridors, why could they do if they want to abandon XRP ?

Ripple has very big vision for XRP and they are aggressively pushing it through all silos strategically.. And their vision won't be fulfilled in a year, its going to take 3+ Years easily to get regulation clarity in all country and then we will see the bloom in adaption.

XRPL labs, Coinfield, Coil, SBI Japan, KAVA Labs, Startas , Polychain ,LOGOS, Forte and lot more firms are working around XRP Ledger. 

Biggest accusation till date is XRP can't be successful without Ripple. I am sure XRP Ledger will have lot more players in next 5 years. Ripple is carefully addressing that slowly and carefully without hurting the value of XRP. 

I am 100% on XRP and I will continue to accumulate until the price stays below 30 cents. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, xrp_moonjet said:

 

Ripple may be distancing itself from XRP to make a clear case to prove that XRP is not a security.

Ripple has been pushing ODL corridors, why could they do if they want to abandon XRP ?

Ripple has very big vision for XRP and they are aggressively pushing it through all silos strategically.. And their vision won't be fulfilled in a year, its going to take 3+ Years easily to get regulation clarity in all country and then we will see the bloom in adaption.

XRPL labs, Coinfield, Coil, SBI Japan, KAVA Labs, Startas , Polychain ,LOGOS, Forte and lot more firms are working around XRP Ledger. 

Biggest accusation till date is XRP can't be successful without Ripple. I am sure XRP Ledger will have lot more players in next 5 years. Ripple is carefully addressing that slowly and carefully without hurting the value of XRP. 

I am 100% on XRP and I will continue to accumulate until the price stays below 30 cents. 

 

 

I don't see XRP being successful without Ripple long term. If Ripple abandons XRP, then I think its more likely for a new digital asset to be created with the same technology as XRP (if anybody would still want to utilize XRP technology for anything).

There are plenty of digital assets; I don't see people going out of their way to keep XRP alive if Ripple abandoned it.

The fact that they abandoned it would be a huge break of trust from everything they've been preaching up until now. This, in my opinion, would cause a distrust so great that people would not want to deal with XRP.

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For Bitcoin 

Three indicators I am keeping an eye on.

Recent Downtrend Line

50/100 Day EMA cross over

June Downtrend Line.

 

Regarding Ripple's IPO

The main question I have is this.

Ripple has owns 50 Billion XRP which they have in escrow and they can release 1,000,000 per month.

If XRP goes to $10 that equals $500 Billion  If it goes to $20 that's $1 Trillion.

If XRP reaches either of these numbers Ripple has access to $10 billion to $20 billion per month.

The largest IPO in history was Alibaba which raised like $22 Billion.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/011215/top-10-largest-global-ipos-all-time.asp

 

So someone explain to me why Ripple will need money from an IPO If XRP reaches anywhere near these values?  Even at $1 they have access to $1 Billion a month.  

 

 

 

 

 

1 25 2020.png

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