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Eric123

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

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17 minutes ago, JASCoder said:

take a view at Bitstamp's XRP volume levels

During the bear doldrums the daily Bitstamp vol would be around 4 to 6 Million USD.  During short bits of interest in the bear markets it would be maybe up to 12 to 14.  Right now it’s 16.  During the early 2018 period it was often well over 20.

So yeah,  it seems to me there is a bit of interest hanging around at the moment.  My feeling is that the cryptoverse is waking up slowly from a long sleep.

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17 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

We are currently below the line indicating we are still in the June 19 downtrend, been fighting with this line lately.  Looking for a big move on high volume that is decisive when we break out above it.  

1 11 2020.png

Assuming this likely won’t happen over the weekend?

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So we've been moving around the down trend line and we are currently above it, let's see how long this holds.  Looking for a decisive move to the upside.  Hash rate continues to increase and longs are deleveraging. 121 days til the halving, and Litecoin holding above $50.   I think the people that were calling for $6k are out of luck.  Go Baby Go. 

1 12 2020.png

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23 hours ago, Eric123 said:

I think the people that were calling for $6k are out of luck.  Go Baby Go. 

At the risk of sounding like the scrooge of Xmas, I'm expecting around 3600 usd per bitcoin in the near to mid-term. Once you strip away the FOMO, the Reddit, Twitter, YouTube hype and just look at the graphs... I'd say 3600 usd is incoming. I've lost 5-figures on XRP and I only started investing in June of last year! But, I've never once ranted or complained about the loss. It has however made me more cautious and a lot of people posting graphs here use TA and subconsciously slant it with upwards price movement in mind. If anyone wants to see the graphs I'm looking at for 3600 I'm more than happy to post (they aren't mine though). 

There has to be a voice of reason, if for nothing than to stop inexperienced people from losing money, and it's those people who tend to invest more than they can afford to lose.

@Eric123 much love, but you've been consistently way off the mark. I would love for there to a bull-run, I like money. But wanting something and wishing it to be true doesn't work (just a general anecdote, not directed at you in any way).

What I've found to be even more helpful than graphs, is the simple observation that if the price tends to keep bumping around a certain level, it inevitably goes down. XRP for example has failed to get above .22 even. It's going down imho; that's not scientific, but I'd be a hell of a lot more confident shorting it than long right now. Ditto for BTC. And the one I'd short the most is Bitcoin SV, that's cray cray... the most obvious short I've ever seen. If I had three kidneys, I'd bet two and a half on that. 

My post won't get the most likes, probably none, because people inherently don't like down-to-earth realistic and humble posts, but let's revisit this post in 3 months and see. I'm pretty smart and this is the conclusion I've come to after many months of research and having real skin in the game. 

Edited by baobeiiiii

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Looking at the chart now bitcoin's price is currently above the downtrend which began this June.  We need to hold the 8,002 level today to stay above the trend line.  Further bitcoin is still in a larger bear cycle that began in December of 2017 and it needs to break around $12,000 to reverse that downtrend.  Bitcoin will not enter another bull cycle till bitcoin breaks it's ATH.

@baobeiiiii my timing on when bitcoin would retake the ATH was wrong.  But I have not doubt Bitcoin will eventually retake it's ATH and have another bull market and when it does I believe XRP will also go on a bull run as well and both will top out at multiples of their previous ATHs.  When?  I don't have a crystal ball.  Bitcoin has to hold and break certain price levels to signal an upward movement.  The price is at a critical level now.  If it breaks below $8,000 it could sink further - $3,600 is possible though that is a lot more bearish than most of the bearish predictions which are around $6k.  Short might be the way to go right now but Bitcoin always surprises.  There are arguments to be made for Bulls and Bears.  Good Luck.  For myself I have been accumulating all during this bear cycle and don't plan on selling until bitcoin is well into a bull market.  

In the next bull market I believe any purchase made within the last two years will have been a good deal.  

Believe me I've got skin in the game too.  

1 13 2020.png

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1 hour ago, baobeiiiii said:

At the risk of sounding like the scrooge of Xmas, I'm expecting around 3600 usd per bitcoin in the near to mid-term. Once you strip away the FOMO, the Reddit, Twitter, YouTube hype and just look at the graphs... I'd say 3600 usd is incoming. I've lost 5-figures on XRP and I only started investing in June of last year! But, I've never once ranted or complained about the loss. It has however made me more cautious and a lot of people posting graphs here use TA and subconsciously slant it with upwards price movement in mind. If anyone wants to see the graphs I'm looking at for 3600 I'm more than happy to post (they aren't mine though). 

There has to be a voice of reason, if for nothing than to stop inexperienced people from losing money, and it's those people who tend to invest more than they can afford to lose.

@Eric123 much love, but you've been consistently way off the mark. I would love for there to a bull-run, I like money. But wanting something and wishing it to be true doesn't work (just a general anecdote, not directed at you in any way).

What I've found to be even more helpful than graphs, is the simple observation that if the price tends to keep bumping around a certain level, it inevitably goes down. XRP for example has failed to get above .22 even. It's going down imho; that's not scientific, but I'd be a hell of a lot more confident shorting it than long right now. Ditto for BTC. And the one I'd short the most is Bitcoin SV, that's cray cray... the most obvious short I've ever seen. If I had three kidneys, I'd bet two and a half on that. 

My post won't get the most likes, probably none, because people inherently don't like down-to-earth realistic and humble posts, but let's revisit this post in 3 months and see. I'm pretty smart and this is the conclusion I've come to after many months of research and having real skin in the game. 

I gave you a like, as you could be very right. But also very wrong. Agreed that currently there is not a single reason for the market to go up. Majority is out of crypto, regular news outlets are silent on it and there is no new money coming in at any moment now.

The reason why I never swapped my XRP for Fiat however is that with this market you never know when. The whales (who like to make money) could just take any random announcement to bring up prices again. A 100mln boost like to BTC last year creates a new bullmarket for weeks. Investors have instant amnesia once it turns around like the last cycles in the previous decade. And news outlets just need a few weeks of reporting before new/old retail comes running back in.

I've got time and written my investment off. I'm not going to hunt potential profits by trading for the risk of a loss. I think 2020 a lot of things are allready happening, mainly the point we were all waiting for. Regulations in the US. And I do not think it will go much lower than $0.20 as that ($0.15 - $0.25) was the previous accumulation zone during april and december 2017 and thats the pricerange most whales got their stashes in after cashing out most if it on the first wave. 

Ps. I also like the current capitulation mode many, including you, are in. That makes me bullish in the coming months.

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3 hours ago, Caracappa said:

Ps. I also like the current capitulation mode many, including you, are in. That makes me bullish in the coming months.

Capitulation isn't the right word. Okay, who cares for semantics, but having the opinion that the price will go down isn't capitulation. You know you can make money shorting this stuff, right!? There's money to be made either way. If by capitulation you mean that I don't buy into the hype and expect XRP or BTC to deliver me a lambo overnight, then, yes, 'capitulation'. Capitulation is such an emotive word, and I would be correct to say that almost all people here just want to make money.

If I'm not allowed into the cult for not drinking the Kool-Aid, apologies. 

I would never buy a lambo anyway, if the price crashes and I make a fortune, OR if the price goes up and makes me a fortune, I'm all about having a chain of Airbnb's. The only people who will get burnt are those that think they have to buy as much as possible, DCA endlessly, brush aside all contrary viewpoints... when those people sell, sure, that's capitulation, in that context. If you are basing your investor confidence on those people losing hope, then you are in a very, very bad spot. 

F**k the Kool-Aid! Show me the money!

^ I put that in bold, because it is such a subtle but critical point that many people overlook. If that makes me look like a d*ck, fine. 

Edited by baobeiiiii

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8 hours ago, Caracappa said:

I gave you a like, as you could be very right. But also very wrong. Agreed that currently there is not a single reason for the market to go up. Majority is out of crypto, regular news outlets are silent on it and there is no new money coming in at any moment now.

The reason why I never swapped my XRP for Fiat however is that with this market you never know when. The whales (who like to make money) could just take any random announcement to bring up prices again. A 100mln boost like to BTC last year creates a new bullmarket for weeks. Investors have instant amnesia once it turns around like the last cycles in the previous decade. And news outlets just need a few weeks of reporting before new/old retail comes running back in.

I've got time and written my investment off. I'm not going to hunt potential profits by trading for the risk of a loss. I think 2020 a lot of things are allready happening, mainly the point we were all waiting for. Regulations in the US. And I do not think it will go much lower than $0.20 as that ($0.15 - $0.25) was the previous accumulation zone during april and december 2017 and thats the pricerange most whales got their stashes in after cashing out most if it on the first wave. 

Ps. I also like the current capitulation mode many, including you, are in. That makes me bullish in the coming months.

Is this true.  In May XRP went from .06 to .20 without a correction before the next leg up to 3.3.  We are back at .20.  

I think the lack of correction between May and Dec 2017 has caused the lack of progress compared to other crypto.  There are some huge bagholders who never cashed out in May - Dec 2017 and they are still selling at a profit.

Edited by Julian_Williams

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