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Eric123

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

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Looking at the chart now bitcoin's price is currently above the downtrend which began this June.  We need to hold the 8,002 level today to stay above the trend line.  Further bitcoin is still in a larger bear cycle that began in December of 2017 and it needs to break around $12,000 to reverse that downtrend.  Bitcoin will not enter another bull cycle till bitcoin breaks it's ATH.

@baobeiiiii my timing on when bitcoin would retake the ATH was wrong.  But I have not doubt Bitcoin will eventually retake it's ATH and have another bull market and when it does I believe XRP will also go on a bull run as well and both will top out at multiples of their previous ATHs.  When?  I don't have a crystal ball.  Bitcoin has to hold and break certain price levels to signal an upward movement.  The price is at a critical level now.  If it breaks below $8,000 it could sink further - $3,600 is possible though that is a lot more bearish than most of the bearish predictions which are around $6k.  Short might be the way to go right now but Bitcoin always surprises.  There are arguments to be made for Bulls and Bears.  Good Luck.  For myself I have been accumulating all during this bear cycle and don't plan on selling until bitcoin is well into a bull market.  

In the next bull market I believe any purchase made within the last two years will have been a good deal.  

Believe me I've got skin in the game too.  

1 13 2020.png

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1 hour ago, baobeiiiii said:

At the risk of sounding like the scrooge of Xmas, I'm expecting around 3600 usd per bitcoin in the near to mid-term. Once you strip away the FOMO, the Reddit, Twitter, YouTube hype and just look at the graphs... I'd say 3600 usd is incoming. I've lost 5-figures on XRP and I only started investing in June of last year! But, I've never once ranted or complained about the loss. It has however made me more cautious and a lot of people posting graphs here use TA and subconsciously slant it with upwards price movement in mind. If anyone wants to see the graphs I'm looking at for 3600 I'm more than happy to post (they aren't mine though). 

There has to be a voice of reason, if for nothing than to stop inexperienced people from losing money, and it's those people who tend to invest more than they can afford to lose.

@Eric123 much love, but you've been consistently way off the mark. I would love for there to a bull-run, I like money. But wanting something and wishing it to be true doesn't work (just a general anecdote, not directed at you in any way).

What I've found to be even more helpful than graphs, is the simple observation that if the price tends to keep bumping around a certain level, it inevitably goes down. XRP for example has failed to get above .22 even. It's going down imho; that's not scientific, but I'd be a hell of a lot more confident shorting it than long right now. Ditto for BTC. And the one I'd short the most is Bitcoin SV, that's cray cray... the most obvious short I've ever seen. If I had three kidneys, I'd bet two and a half on that. 

My post won't get the most likes, probably none, because people inherently don't like down-to-earth realistic and humble posts, but let's revisit this post in 3 months and see. I'm pretty smart and this is the conclusion I've come to after many months of research and having real skin in the game. 

I gave you a like, as you could be very right. But also very wrong. Agreed that currently there is not a single reason for the market to go up. Majority is out of crypto, regular news outlets are silent on it and there is no new money coming in at any moment now.

The reason why I never swapped my XRP for Fiat however is that with this market you never know when. The whales (who like to make money) could just take any random announcement to bring up prices again. A 100mln boost like to BTC last year creates a new bullmarket for weeks. Investors have instant amnesia once it turns around like the last cycles in the previous decade. And news outlets just need a few weeks of reporting before new/old retail comes running back in.

I've got time and written my investment off. I'm not going to hunt potential profits by trading for the risk of a loss. I think 2020 a lot of things are allready happening, mainly the point we were all waiting for. Regulations in the US. And I do not think it will go much lower than $0.20 as that ($0.15 - $0.25) was the previous accumulation zone during april and december 2017 and thats the pricerange most whales got their stashes in after cashing out most if it on the first wave. 

Ps. I also like the current capitulation mode many, including you, are in. That makes me bullish in the coming months.

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3 hours ago, Caracappa said:

Ps. I also like the current capitulation mode many, including you, are in. That makes me bullish in the coming months.

Capitulation isn't the right word. Okay, who cares for semantics, but having the opinion that the price will go down isn't capitulation. You know you can make money shorting this stuff, right!? There's money to be made either way. If by capitulation you mean that I don't buy into the hype and expect XRP or BTC to deliver me a lambo overnight, then, yes, 'capitulation'. Capitulation is such an emotive word, and I would be correct to say that almost all people here just want to make money.

If I'm not allowed into the cult for not drinking the Kool-Aid, apologies. 

I would never buy a lambo anyway, if the price crashes and I make a fortune, OR if the price goes up and makes me a fortune, I'm all about having a chain of Airbnb's. The only people who will get burnt are those that think they have to buy as much as possible, DCA endlessly, brush aside all contrary viewpoints... when those people sell, sure, that's capitulation, in that context. If you are basing your investor confidence on those people losing hope, then you are in a very, very bad spot. 

F**k the Kool-Aid! Show me the money!

^ I put that in bold, because it is such a subtle but critical point that many people overlook. If that makes me look like a d*ck, fine. 

Edited by baobeiiiii

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8 hours ago, Caracappa said:

I gave you a like, as you could be very right. But also very wrong. Agreed that currently there is not a single reason for the market to go up. Majority is out of crypto, regular news outlets are silent on it and there is no new money coming in at any moment now.

The reason why I never swapped my XRP for Fiat however is that with this market you never know when. The whales (who like to make money) could just take any random announcement to bring up prices again. A 100mln boost like to BTC last year creates a new bullmarket for weeks. Investors have instant amnesia once it turns around like the last cycles in the previous decade. And news outlets just need a few weeks of reporting before new/old retail comes running back in.

I've got time and written my investment off. I'm not going to hunt potential profits by trading for the risk of a loss. I think 2020 a lot of things are allready happening, mainly the point we were all waiting for. Regulations in the US. And I do not think it will go much lower than $0.20 as that ($0.15 - $0.25) was the previous accumulation zone during april and december 2017 and thats the pricerange most whales got their stashes in after cashing out most if it on the first wave. 

Ps. I also like the current capitulation mode many, including you, are in. That makes me bullish in the coming months.

Is this true.  In May XRP went from .06 to .20 without a correction before the next leg up to 3.3.  We are back at .20.  

I think the lack of correction between May and Dec 2017 has caused the lack of progress compared to other crypto.  There are some huge bagholders who never cashed out in May - Dec 2017 and they are still selling at a profit.

Edited by Julian_Williams

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2 hours ago, Eric123 said:

I just picked up some more Bitcoin.

So now that we've been holding above the $8,002.00 bitcoin all day, what do you reckon our next move is - anything soon?

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3 hours ago, Eric123 said:

I just picked up some more Bitcoin.

I hit my target, I suppose its time to raise the bar higher again as I am bullish on BTC. Do you have a position on VET?

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From my cycles perspective we are heading down from here or very soon thereafter.

Cycles11320.thumb.png.60722b41e1d8803bd5f8f29c83dd12bd.png

Keep in mind that if the cycle holds, once the bottom is reached there will be a parabolic increase to start the next cycle (cycles marked with vertical purple lines)

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12 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

Is this true.  In May XRP went from .06 to .20 without a correction before the next leg up to 3.3.  We are back at .20.  

I think the lack of correction between May and Dec 2017 has caused the lack of progress compared to other crypto.  There are some huge bagholders who never cashed out in May - Dec 2017 and they are still selling at a profit.

Well, in this market nothing is true, but looking at volumes it is my estimation that period was an accumulation period for the next leg up.

Eventually only time will tell.

13 hours ago, baobeiiiii said:

Capitulation isn't the right word. Okay, who cares for semantics, but having the opinion that the price will go down isn't capitulation. You know you can make money shorting this stuff, right!? There's money to be made either way. If by capitulation you mean that I don't buy into the hype and expect XRP or BTC to deliver me a lambo overnight, then, yes, 'capitulation'. Capitulation is such an emotive word, and I would be correct to say that almost all people here just want to make money.

If I'm not allowed into the cult for not drinking the Kool-Aid, apologies. 

I would never buy a lambo anyway, if the price crashes and I make a fortune, OR if the price goes up and makes me a fortune, I'm all about having a chain of Airbnb's. The only people who will get burnt are those that think they have to buy as much as possible, DCA endlessly, brush aside all contrary viewpoints... when those people sell, sure, that's capitulation, in that context. If you are basing your investor confidence on those people losing hope, then you are in a very, very bad spot. 

F**k the Kool-Aid! Show me the money!

^ I put that in bold, because it is such a subtle but critical point that many people overlook. If that makes me look like a d*ck, fine. 

As said, you could be right very well. No one knows. This is my thinking, you have yours. 

The bold part I personally disagree with. If the investment is not going anywhere progress wise it would be right to follow the people losing hope. But i've been in some cycles, and the moment majority lost hope was a turning point most of the times with investments that kept making progress.

The 'capitulation' is perhaps not the right word, but I use it to describe the change from being very bullish (remember the Mark Cuban time you talked about in where you were positive) to being very skeptical as you are now. Call it not buying the hype, or questioning the future outcome. Left or right, your view changed.

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21 hours ago, Eric123 said:

Looking at the chart now bitcoin's price is currently above the downtrend which began this June.  We need to hold the 8,002 level today to stay above the trend line.  Further bitcoin is still in a larger bear cycle that began in December of 2017 and it needs to break around $12,000 to reverse that downtrend.  Bitcoin will not enter another bull cycle till bitcoin breaks it's ATH.

@baobeiiiii my timing on when bitcoin would retake the ATH was wrong.  But I have not doubt Bitcoin will eventually retake it's ATH and have another bull market and when it does I believe XRP will also go on a bull run as well and both will top out at multiples of their previous ATHs.  When?  I don't have a crystal ball.  Bitcoin has to hold and break certain price levels to signal an upward movement.  The price is at a critical level now.  If it breaks below $8,000 it could sink further - $3,600 is possible though that is a lot more bearish than most of the bearish predictions which are around $6k.  Short might be the way to go right now but Bitcoin always surprises.  There are arguments to be made for Bulls and Bears.  Good Luck.  For myself I have been accumulating all during this bear cycle and don't plan on selling until bitcoin is well into a bull market.  

In the next bull market I believe any purchase made within the last two years will have been a good deal.  

Believe me I've got skin in the game too.  

1 13 2020.png

 

1 hour ago, Baka said:

@Eric123 do you think we are slowly starting the bullrun ?

No he does not. He clearly said in a recent post, that he believes we will not be in a bull run until we break the ATH.

#read_more_ask_less

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6 minutes ago, RipplingAlong said:

 

No he does not. He clearly said in a recent post, that he believes we will not be in a bull run until we break the ATH.

#read_more_ask_less

that's right , don't need to talk like a prick. 

"Who are you to evaluate he's work when you have not done anything at all to prove your TA capability to be used as criteria to critique someone else work? Rather, shhhhhhh..."

he's work ? really ? #You_learned_something_today  shhhhhheesh

Edited by Baka

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38 minutes ago, Baka said:

that's right , don't need to talk like a prick. 

"Who are you to evaluate he's work when you have not done anything at all to prove your TA capability to be used as criteria to critique someone else work? Rather, shhhhhhh..."

he's work ? really ? #You_learned_something_today  shhhhhheesh

A prick? Does it make me a prick to highlight the truth?

You continually ask, when moon, when this price, when bull run, blah bla.....

When are you gonna put on your bigboy pants and decide for yourself what to do rather than copying others?

Stop asking stupid questions, especially ones which have already been answered.

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47 minutes ago, RipplingAlong said:

A prick? Does it make me a prick to highlight the truth?

You continually ask, when moon, when this price, when bull run, blah bla.....

When are you gonna put on your bigboy pants and decide for yourself what to do rather than copying others?

Stop asking stupid questions, especially ones which have already been answered.

I never ask when moon , I'm asking Eric's opinion because he knows a lot and do TA.

Did I ask you anything ? I don't think so.

I just read your other post , you seem quite mad or frustrated too. don't give advice when you can't make the difference between he's and his and I'm sure English is your native langage .

"Stop asking stupid questions, especially ones which have already been answered." I can ask whatever I want , and I can block pricks like you too. 

damn , I guess he bought in jan 2018 and is so frustrated .

 

Joined in January 2018 seems like I was right.

JUST HODL IT  as a profile picture , won't even debate anymore.

Edited by Baka

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